Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 8–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.3% 37.4–41.3% 36.9–41.9% 36.4–42.4% 35.5–43.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.2% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.0% 23.7–30.9%
Chega 1.3% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 109–120 107–121 106–122 103–128
Partido Social Democrata 79 76 70–81 69–82 67–84 64–87
Chega 1 12 11–14 10–16 9–17 8–19
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 10–16 9–16 7–18 7–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–10 5–11 4–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 1–3 0–4 0–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.3%  
105 1.0% 98.6%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94% Last Result
109 4% 92%  
110 5% 88%  
111 7% 83%  
112 10% 76%  
113 6% 66%  
114 8% 60%  
115 8% 52% Median
116 13% 44% Majority
117 8% 31%  
118 4% 24%  
119 7% 19%  
120 4% 12%  
121 4% 8%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.2% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.7%  
128 0.3% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.6% 99.3%  
66 0.6% 98.7%  
67 0.7% 98%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 4% 94%  
71 4% 90%  
72 4% 86%  
73 7% 81%  
74 6% 74%  
75 14% 68%  
76 17% 53% Median
77 8% 37%  
78 6% 29%  
79 6% 23% Last Result
80 4% 17%  
81 6% 13%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.5% 4%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.9%  
9 2% 98.9%  
10 3% 97%  
11 43% 94%  
12 10% 51% Median
13 16% 41%  
14 17% 25%  
15 2% 8%  
16 0.8% 5%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 2% 97%  
9 4% 95%  
10 6% 92%  
11 23% 86%  
12 16% 63% Median
13 13% 47%  
14 11% 35%  
15 11% 24%  
16 9% 13%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.8%  
5 14% 99.2%  
6 28% 86%  
7 30% 58% Median
8 10% 28%  
9 6% 17%  
10 9% 12%  
11 0.7% 3%  
12 1.2% 2% Last Result
13 0.7% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 99.8%  
3 42% 99.0%  
4 37% 57% Median
5 16% 21%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 50% 96% Median
2 38% 45%  
3 5% 7%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 40% 93%  
2 50% 54% Median
3 3% 4%  
4 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 134 100% 129–139 127–141 125–143 122–147
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 127 99.5% 121–132 120–133 118–136 115–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 121 93% 116–127 114–128 112–130 110–134
Partido Socialista 108 115 44% 109–120 107–121 106–122 103–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 77 0% 72–82 70–84 69–86 65–88

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.7%  
123 0.4% 99.5%  
124 0.6% 99.1%  
125 1.1% 98.5%  
126 1.2% 97%  
127 3% 96%  
128 2% 94%  
129 6% 92%  
130 3% 86%  
131 8% 83%  
132 10% 75%  
133 8% 65%  
134 7% 57% Median
135 8% 50%  
136 12% 41%  
137 10% 29%  
138 6% 19%  
139 6% 13% Last Result
140 2% 7%  
141 2% 5%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 0.6% 3%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.5% 1.1%  
147 0.3% 0.6%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.3% 99.5% Majority
117 0.8% 99.2%  
118 1.3% 98%  
119 1.3% 97%  
120 3% 96%  
121 3% 93%  
122 3% 89%  
123 5% 87%  
124 7% 82%  
125 8% 75%  
126 8% 66%  
127 10% 59% Last Result, Median
128 9% 49%  
129 8% 40%  
130 14% 32%  
131 7% 18%  
132 4% 11%  
133 3% 7%  
134 1.1% 4%  
135 0.6% 3%  
136 0.7% 3%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.5%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.3% 99.8%  
110 0.4% 99.5%  
111 0.7% 99.2%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 1.0% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 95%  
116 4% 93% Majority
117 6% 89%  
118 7% 83%  
119 8% 76%  
120 12% 68% Last Result
121 9% 56%  
122 4% 47% Median
123 9% 43%  
124 5% 34%  
125 9% 29%  
126 8% 21%  
127 5% 13%  
128 4% 8%  
129 1.1% 4%  
130 0.4% 3%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.3%  
134 0.6% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.3%  
105 1.0% 98.6%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94% Last Result
109 4% 92%  
110 5% 88%  
111 7% 83%  
112 10% 76%  
113 6% 66%  
114 8% 60%  
115 8% 52% Median
116 13% 44% Majority
117 8% 31%  
118 4% 24%  
119 7% 19%  
120 4% 12%  
121 4% 8%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.2% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.7%  
128 0.3% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 0.6% 99.0%  
68 0.6% 98%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 3% 91%  
73 4% 88%  
74 6% 85%  
75 7% 78%  
76 13% 71%  
77 13% 58% Median
78 11% 45%  
79 8% 33%  
80 6% 26%  
81 5% 20%  
82 6% 15%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 6% Last Result
85 1.4% 4%  
86 1.2% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations