Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 1–4 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.5% 37.6–41.5% 37.0–42.1% 36.5–42.6% 35.6–43.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 26.0–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Chega 1.3% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 114 108–120 107–121 105–122 102–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 78 74–83 72–85 70–87 66–89
Chega 1 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–18
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 10–16 8–16 7–17 7–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 5–8 5–9 4–10 3–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 1.1% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 5% 95%  
108 4% 91% Last Result
109 4% 86%  
110 9% 83%  
111 7% 74%  
112 8% 67%  
113 6% 59%  
114 9% 53% Median
115 6% 44%  
116 8% 38% Majority
117 7% 30%  
118 7% 24%  
119 4% 17%  
120 5% 12%  
121 2% 7%  
122 2% 5%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.7% 1.4%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.5%  
68 0.5% 99.3%  
69 0.9% 98.8%  
70 0.5% 98%  
71 1.1% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 95%  
74 7% 91%  
75 11% 84%  
76 12% 73%  
77 11% 61%  
78 8% 50% Median
79 8% 43% Last Result
80 8% 35%  
81 11% 26%  
82 2% 15%  
83 6% 13%  
84 1.3% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.8%  
10 0.2% 99.7%  
11 32% 99.5%  
12 17% 67%  
13 27% 51% Median
14 20% 24%  
15 2% 4%  
16 0.8% 2%  
17 0.5% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 4% 97%  
9 2% 93%  
10 4% 91%  
11 18% 87%  
12 25% 69% Median
13 12% 45%  
14 6% 33%  
15 12% 27%  
16 13% 16%  
17 1.1% 3%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.9%  
4 3% 99.4%  
5 24% 97%  
6 31% 72% Median
7 29% 41%  
8 7% 12%  
9 2% 5%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 11% 99.5%  
2 62% 88% Median
3 17% 26%  
4 9% 9% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 48% 77% Median
2 28% 29%  
3 0.3% 0.6%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 21% 99.9% Last Result
2 20% 79%  
3 55% 59% Median
4 4% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 133 100% 127–138 125–139 124–140 121–145
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 99.1% 120–132 119–133 118–134 114–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 86% 114–126 112–127 111–128 108–132
Partido Socialista 108 114 38% 108–120 107–121 105–122 102–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 79 0% 75–84 73–86 71–88 67–91

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.4% 99.5%  
122 0.5% 99.2%  
123 0.5% 98.7%  
124 1.3% 98%  
125 2% 97%  
126 2% 94%  
127 3% 93%  
128 6% 90%  
129 9% 84%  
130 7% 75%  
131 6% 68%  
132 8% 61% Median
133 8% 53%  
134 6% 46%  
135 8% 40%  
136 9% 31%  
137 10% 22%  
138 6% 13%  
139 3% 7% Last Result
140 2% 4%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.4% 2%  
143 0.2% 1.1%  
144 0.2% 0.9%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.4% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.3%  
116 0.5% 99.1% Majority
117 0.6% 98.6%  
118 1.1% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 5% 95%  
121 3% 90%  
122 8% 86%  
123 8% 78%  
124 7% 70%  
125 6% 64%  
126 8% 58% Median
127 5% 50% Last Result
128 7% 45%  
129 7% 38%  
130 10% 31%  
131 9% 22%  
132 6% 13%  
133 2% 6%  
134 2% 4%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.5%  
137 0.4% 1.2%  
138 0.3% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.5%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.7%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 0.5% 99.0%  
111 1.0% 98%  
112 3% 97%  
113 3% 95%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 6% 86% Majority
117 9% 80%  
118 8% 71%  
119 8% 63%  
120 9% 55% Last Result, Median
121 5% 46%  
122 10% 41%  
123 7% 31%  
124 5% 24%  
125 6% 18%  
126 4% 12%  
127 4% 8%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.3% 2%  
130 0.2% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.5%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 1.1% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 5% 95%  
108 4% 91% Last Result
109 4% 86%  
110 9% 83%  
111 7% 74%  
112 8% 67%  
113 6% 59%  
114 9% 53% Median
115 6% 44%  
116 8% 38% Majority
117 7% 30%  
118 7% 24%  
119 4% 17%  
120 5% 12%  
121 2% 7%  
122 2% 5%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.7% 1.4%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 99.2%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 1.3% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 3% 95%  
75 8% 91%  
76 11% 83%  
77 12% 73%  
78 8% 60%  
79 10% 52% Median
80 7% 42%  
81 7% 35%  
82 12% 28%  
83 3% 16%  
84 4% 14% Last Result
85 3% 10%  
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.3% 1.2%  
90 0.3% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations