Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 5–8 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.6% 37.7–41.6% 37.1–42.2% 36.6–42.6% 35.7–43.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.7% 24.4–31.6%
Chega 1.3% 7.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.8–7.8% 4.5–8.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 109–120 106–122 105–123 103–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 78 71–84 69–84 67–86 65–88
Chega 1 13 11–17 11–18 11–19 9–22
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 7–13 7–14 7–16 5–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–10 5–12 5–13 5–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.5%  
104 2% 99.4%  
105 2% 98%  
106 0.8% 96%  
107 1.0% 95%  
108 3% 94% Last Result
109 3% 91%  
110 5% 88%  
111 11% 83%  
112 7% 72%  
113 9% 65%  
114 5% 56%  
115 7% 51% Median
116 7% 44% Majority
117 8% 37%  
118 7% 30%  
119 4% 23%  
120 9% 19%  
121 2% 9%  
122 4% 7%  
123 1.3% 3%  
124 0.2% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 0.2% 2%  
127 1.2% 2%  
128 0% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.8%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 0.6% 98%  
68 0.7% 97%  
69 4% 97%  
70 1.0% 93%  
71 2% 92%  
72 2% 89%  
73 7% 87%  
74 5% 80%  
75 15% 75%  
76 7% 60%  
77 2% 53%  
78 6% 51% Median
79 7% 44% Last Result
80 8% 38%  
81 9% 30%  
82 7% 20%  
83 1.3% 14%  
84 8% 13%  
85 1.3% 5%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 0.1% 2%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.7%  
10 0.6% 99.5%  
11 30% 98.9%  
12 7% 69%  
13 24% 62% Median
14 17% 38%  
15 8% 21%  
16 2% 13%  
17 4% 11%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.8%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.2%  
7 18% 99.1%  
8 7% 81%  
9 6% 74%  
10 6% 68%  
11 37% 61% Median
12 14% 24%  
13 3% 10%  
14 3% 7%  
15 1.1% 4%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 15% 92%  
7 26% 77%  
8 10% 51% Median
9 23% 41%  
10 9% 18%  
11 3% 9%  
12 3% 6% Last Result
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.9%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100% Last Result
2 12% 99.0%  
3 64% 87% Median
4 22% 24%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 35% 95%  
2 55% 59% Median
3 3% 4%  
4 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 48% 56% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 132 100% 127–139 125–140 124–143 122–145
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 124 98% 120–131 117–132 116–134 114–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 93% 117–128 115–129 113–132 111–137
Partido Socialista 108 115 44% 109–120 106–122 105–123 103–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 78 0% 72–84 70–85 67–86 66–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.3% 99.3%  
124 3% 99.0%  
125 1.0% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 4% 93%  
128 6% 89%  
129 15% 82%  
130 5% 67%  
131 3% 62%  
132 11% 59%  
133 5% 49%  
134 5% 44% Median
135 1.3% 39%  
136 9% 38%  
137 5% 29%  
138 11% 24%  
139 4% 13% Last Result
140 5% 9%  
141 0.3% 3%  
142 0.2% 3%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 1.2% 2%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.5%  
115 2% 99.3%  
116 0.8% 98% Majority
117 2% 97%  
118 0.9% 94%  
119 3% 93%  
120 10% 90%  
121 11% 80%  
122 6% 69%  
123 5% 63%  
124 9% 58%  
125 3% 49%  
126 6% 46% Median
127 9% 40% Last Result
128 3% 32%  
129 4% 28%  
130 6% 24%  
131 11% 18%  
132 3% 7%  
133 0.8% 4%  
134 1.1% 3%  
135 0.2% 2%  
136 0.1% 2%  
137 0.9% 2%  
138 0.1% 0.6%  
139 0.3% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.5%  
112 0.5% 99.4%  
113 2% 98.9%  
114 1.4% 96%  
115 2% 95%  
116 2% 93% Majority
117 8% 92%  
118 5% 83%  
119 2% 79%  
120 8% 77% Last Result
121 9% 69%  
122 12% 60%  
123 5% 48% Median
124 5% 43%  
125 11% 39%  
126 1.4% 28%  
127 12% 26%  
128 7% 15%  
129 3% 8%  
130 2% 5%  
131 0.2% 3%  
132 0.8% 3%  
133 0.2% 2%  
134 0.1% 2%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.1% 0.9%  
137 0.6% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.5%  
104 2% 99.4%  
105 2% 98%  
106 0.8% 96%  
107 1.0% 95%  
108 3% 94% Last Result
109 3% 91%  
110 5% 88%  
111 11% 83%  
112 7% 72%  
113 9% 65%  
114 5% 56%  
115 7% 51% Median
116 7% 44% Majority
117 8% 37%  
118 7% 30%  
119 4% 23%  
120 9% 19%  
121 2% 9%  
122 4% 7%  
123 1.3% 3%  
124 0.2% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 0.2% 2%  
127 1.2% 2%  
128 0% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.1% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 0.2% 97%  
69 0.5% 97%  
70 5% 97%  
71 2% 92%  
72 1.1% 90%  
73 7% 89%  
74 3% 82%  
75 13% 79%  
76 7% 66%  
77 6% 60%  
78 7% 53%  
79 4% 47% Median
80 8% 43%  
81 9% 35%  
82 5% 26%  
83 7% 22%  
84 9% 15% Last Result
85 1.2% 6%  
86 2% 5%  
87 0.2% 2%  
88 0.4% 2%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations