Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 5–13 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.0% 34.9–39.3% 34.3–39.9% 33.7–40.4% 32.7–41.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.1% 27.1–31.2% 26.5–31.8% 26.0–32.3% 25.1–33.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.1–8.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 106 99–113 97–114 96–116 90–118
Partido Social Democrata 79 80 74–88 71–89 69–92 68–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–20 14–22 13–23 11–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 13 10–16 9–17 8–18 7–20
Chega 1 10 7–11 6–12 5–13 4–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.7%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.3% 99.2%  
93 0.3% 98.9%  
94 0.6% 98.6%  
95 0.4% 98%  
96 1.2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 2% 92%  
100 7% 90%  
101 3% 83%  
102 7% 79%  
103 4% 72%  
104 8% 68%  
105 10% 60%  
106 5% 50% Median
107 7% 45%  
108 4% 38% Last Result
109 7% 34%  
110 6% 27%  
111 4% 21%  
112 5% 17%  
113 5% 12%  
114 2% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3% Majority
117 1.1% 2%  
118 0.4% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.9% 99.7%  
69 2% 98.8%  
70 1.3% 97%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 1.0% 95%  
73 2% 94%  
74 3% 92%  
75 5% 89%  
76 4% 83%  
77 9% 79%  
78 7% 70%  
79 10% 63% Last Result
80 10% 52% Median
81 3% 43%  
82 6% 39%  
83 3% 34%  
84 8% 31%  
85 4% 22%  
86 5% 19%  
87 3% 13%  
88 3% 11%  
89 3% 7%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.9% 99.8%  
12 1.3% 98.9%  
13 0.8% 98%  
14 4% 97%  
15 6% 92%  
16 19% 87%  
17 13% 68%  
18 10% 55% Median
19 24% 45% Last Result
20 12% 22%  
21 4% 9%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 1.1%  
25 0.1% 0.5%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.5% 99.9%  
8 2% 98%  
9 6% 97%  
10 5% 90%  
11 13% 85%  
12 19% 72% Last Result
13 9% 53% Median
14 12% 44%  
15 5% 31%  
16 18% 27%  
17 5% 9%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.8%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 2% 98%  
6 1.2% 96%  
7 11% 95%  
8 25% 84%  
9 8% 59%  
10 12% 52% Median
11 31% 39%  
12 5% 8%  
13 1.3% 3%  
14 1.2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 41% 95%  
2 44% 53% Median
3 8% 10%  
4 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 57% 62% Last Result, Median
2 2% 5%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 130–143 127–146 125–148 122–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 124 94% 117–131 115–133 112–134 108–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 74% 112–126 110–128 108–129 103–131
Partido Socialista 108 106 3% 99–113 97–114 96–116 90–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 80 0% 74–88 71–89 69–92 68–95

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.4%  
124 0.8% 98.9%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 1.3% 97%  
127 2% 96%  
128 2% 94%  
129 0.9% 92%  
130 4% 91%  
131 4% 87%  
132 6% 83%  
133 6% 77%  
134 3% 71%  
135 7% 67%  
136 6% 60%  
137 4% 54% Median
138 5% 50%  
139 9% 45% Last Result
140 11% 37%  
141 9% 25%  
142 4% 16%  
143 3% 12%  
144 4% 10%  
145 0.7% 6%  
146 1.3% 5%  
147 1.3% 4%  
148 1.2% 3%  
149 0.7% 1.5%  
150 0.5% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.3% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 99.1%  
111 0.5% 98.7%  
112 0.9% 98%  
113 0.9% 97%  
114 0.8% 96%  
115 2% 96%  
116 3% 94% Majority
117 3% 91%  
118 5% 88%  
119 3% 82%  
120 8% 79%  
121 5% 72%  
122 7% 67%  
123 6% 59%  
124 7% 54% Median
125 8% 46%  
126 8% 38%  
127 6% 30% Last Result
128 6% 24%  
129 6% 18%  
130 2% 12%  
131 3% 10%  
132 2% 7%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.1% 4%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.9% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.0%  
138 0.3% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.1%  
106 0.4% 98.8%  
107 0.4% 98%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 1.3% 95%  
111 2% 94%  
112 4% 92%  
113 5% 88%  
114 6% 82%  
115 1.5% 76%  
116 4% 74% Majority
117 7% 70%  
118 9% 63%  
119 4% 54% Median
120 9% 50% Last Result
121 8% 42%  
122 5% 34%  
123 7% 29%  
124 4% 21%  
125 6% 17%  
126 2% 11%  
127 3% 9%  
128 3% 5%  
129 1.3% 3%  
130 0.6% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.7%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.3% 99.2%  
93 0.3% 98.9%  
94 0.6% 98.6%  
95 0.4% 98%  
96 1.2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 2% 92%  
100 7% 90%  
101 3% 83%  
102 7% 79%  
103 4% 72%  
104 8% 68%  
105 10% 60%  
106 5% 50% Median
107 7% 45%  
108 4% 38% Last Result
109 7% 34%  
110 6% 27%  
111 4% 21%  
112 5% 17%  
113 5% 12%  
114 2% 6%  
115 2% 5%  
116 1.2% 3% Majority
117 1.1% 2%  
118 0.4% 0.8%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.7%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 1.2% 97%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 0.9% 95%  
73 2% 94%  
74 3% 92%  
75 6% 89%  
76 4% 84%  
77 9% 80%  
78 7% 71%  
79 10% 64%  
80 10% 53% Median
81 4% 44%  
82 6% 40%  
83 3% 34%  
84 8% 31% Last Result
85 4% 23%  
86 5% 19%  
87 3% 14%  
88 4% 11%  
89 3% 8%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations