Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 3–7 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 36.2–39.9% 35.7–40.5% 35.2–40.9% 34.4–41.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.0% 26.3–29.7% 25.8–30.2% 25.4–30.7% 24.6–31.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.1–10.3%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 103–114 102–116 100–116 97–119
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 72–82 70–84 69–85 66–87
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 13–18 11–18 11–19 10–20
Chega 1 9 7–11 6–11 6–12 4–14
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 6–9 5–10 5–11 4–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 6–10 5–11 5–12 4–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–3 1–3 1–5 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–6

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.3%  
99 0.7% 98.8%  
100 1.1% 98%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 3% 96%  
103 4% 93%  
104 10% 89%  
105 6% 79%  
106 9% 73%  
107 8% 64%  
108 9% 57% Last Result, Median
109 8% 48%  
110 11% 40%  
111 6% 29%  
112 6% 23%  
113 6% 18%  
114 3% 12%  
115 4% 9%  
116 4% 5% Majority
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.5% 1.2%  
119 0.5% 0.7%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 0.9% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 2% 94%  
72 7% 91%  
73 4% 84%  
74 10% 80%  
75 8% 70%  
76 8% 62%  
77 9% 54% Median
78 10% 44%  
79 10% 34% Last Result
80 7% 24%  
81 5% 17%  
82 2% 12%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 6%  
85 1.5% 3%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.3% 99.8%  
10 0.6% 99.5%  
11 5% 99.0%  
12 3% 94%  
13 8% 91%  
14 18% 83%  
15 18% 65% Median
16 8% 46%  
17 20% 38%  
18 15% 18%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 1.2% 98.9%  
6 4% 98%  
7 3% 93%  
8 25% 90%  
9 19% 65% Median
10 20% 46%  
11 22% 25%  
12 1.3% 3%  
13 0.7% 2%  
14 0.9% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 5% 99.5%  
6 31% 95%  
7 26% 64% Median
8 21% 37%  
9 7% 16%  
10 5% 9%  
11 3% 5%  
12 0.7% 2% Last Result
13 0.5% 1.0%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 5% 98.8%  
6 64% 94% Median
7 7% 30%  
8 6% 22%  
9 5% 16%  
10 6% 12%  
11 2% 5%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 13% 99.9%  
2 56% 87% Median
3 26% 31%  
4 1.2% 5%  
5 3% 4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 41% 98%  
3 24% 57% Median
4 31% 33% Last Result
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.5% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 131 99.9% 125–137 124–139 122–139 120–142
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 97% 118–129 116–131 115–132 112–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 48% 110–122 109–123 107–124 104–126
Partido Socialista 108 108 5% 103–114 102–116 100–116 97–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 79 0% 74–85 72–86 71–87 69–90

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.4% 99.5%  
121 0.7% 99.1%  
122 2% 98%  
123 1.0% 97%  
124 3% 96%  
125 3% 93%  
126 5% 90%  
127 5% 84%  
128 9% 79%  
129 10% 71%  
130 10% 61% Median
131 7% 51%  
132 9% 45%  
133 5% 36%  
134 6% 31%  
135 9% 25%  
136 4% 16%  
137 3% 12%  
138 3% 8%  
139 3% 5% Last Result
140 1.2% 2%  
141 0.7% 1.2%  
142 0.2% 0.6%  
143 0.2% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.9% 99.1%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 2% 97% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 4% 93%  
119 6% 89%  
120 6% 83%  
121 7% 77%  
122 10% 70%  
123 12% 60% Median
124 4% 48%  
125 9% 44%  
126 6% 35%  
127 10% 29% Last Result
128 4% 19%  
129 5% 15%  
130 4% 10%  
131 2% 6%  
132 2% 3%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.1%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.4% 99.7%  
105 0.6% 99.3%  
106 0.5% 98.8%  
107 1.1% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 6% 94%  
111 7% 88%  
112 7% 81%  
113 6% 74%  
114 7% 67%  
115 13% 61% Median
116 6% 48% Majority
117 6% 42%  
118 12% 35%  
119 5% 24%  
120 3% 19% Last Result
121 5% 16%  
122 5% 11%  
123 3% 7%  
124 2% 4%  
125 0.9% 2%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.3%  
99 0.7% 98.8%  
100 1.1% 98%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 3% 96%  
103 4% 93%  
104 10% 89%  
105 6% 79%  
106 9% 73%  
107 8% 64%  
108 9% 57% Last Result, Median
109 8% 48%  
110 11% 40%  
111 6% 29%  
112 6% 23%  
113 6% 18%  
114 3% 12%  
115 4% 9%  
116 4% 5% Majority
117 0.7% 2%  
118 0.5% 1.2%  
119 0.5% 0.7%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.9% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 6% 92%  
75 6% 86%  
76 9% 81%  
77 7% 71%  
78 10% 65%  
79 9% 55% Median
80 9% 46%  
81 9% 37%  
82 9% 28%  
83 5% 20%  
84 4% 14% Last Result
85 3% 10%  
86 4% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations