Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 10–13 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.4% 37.4–41.4% 36.9–42.0% 36.4–42.4% 35.5–43.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.4% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.2% 23.9–31.1%
Chega 1.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–8.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 108–120 106–122 105–124 103–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 75 71–81 69–83 66–84 63–88
Chega 1 14 11–17 11–18 11–20 10–22
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 7–15 7–16 7–16 7–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–11 5–12 4–14
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–5

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.8% 99.4%  
105 1.3% 98.6%  
106 3% 97%  
107 2% 94%  
108 3% 92% Last Result
109 5% 89%  
110 0.8% 84%  
111 4% 83%  
112 12% 79%  
113 5% 67%  
114 4% 63%  
115 12% 59% Median
116 3% 47% Majority
117 3% 45%  
118 22% 42%  
119 7% 19%  
120 5% 12%  
121 1.1% 7%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 0.4% 3%  
125 2% 2%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 0.2% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 0.7% 98%  
67 1.1% 97%  
68 1.0% 96%  
69 2% 95%  
70 2% 93%  
71 2% 91%  
72 5% 89%  
73 11% 84%  
74 8% 73%  
75 19% 65% Median
76 18% 45%  
77 5% 28%  
78 3% 22%  
79 4% 19% Last Result
80 5% 15%  
81 3% 10%  
82 2% 7%  
83 0.7% 5%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.2% 2%  
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.5% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.8%  
10 0.2% 99.7%  
11 29% 99.4%  
12 5% 71%  
13 13% 66%  
14 29% 52% Median
15 4% 23%  
16 6% 19%  
17 5% 13%  
18 3% 7%  
19 2% 5%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 1.2%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 12% 99.9%  
8 3% 88%  
9 0.7% 85%  
10 6% 85%  
11 32% 79% Median
12 5% 46%  
13 15% 42%  
14 14% 27%  
15 8% 14%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.0% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 12% 99.3%  
6 24% 87%  
7 33% 63% Median
8 12% 30%  
9 7% 19%  
10 7% 12%  
11 2% 5%  
12 2% 4% Last Result
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.8%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 55% 92% Median
2 33% 37%  
3 3% 4%  
4 0.9% 1.3%  
5 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 23% 99.5%  
2 65% 77% Median
3 7% 12%  
4 4% 5% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 7% 89%  
3 72% 82% Median
4 9% 10%  
5 1.1% 1.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 135 100% 127–138 125–140 124–142 122–145
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.2% 120–131 118–133 117–135 114–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 90% 115–127 114–129 112–131 110–135
Partido Socialista 108 115 47% 108–120 106–122 105–124 103–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 76 0% 73–82 70–85 67–85 65–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.4% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.1%  
124 1.3% 98.7%  
125 2% 97%  
126 2% 95%  
127 4% 93%  
128 2% 90%  
129 3% 88%  
130 7% 85%  
131 4% 78%  
132 10% 74%  
133 7% 64% Median
134 4% 57%  
135 8% 52%  
136 12% 45%  
137 19% 33%  
138 6% 14%  
139 2% 8% Last Result
140 1.2% 5%  
141 1.1% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.2% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 1.3% 2%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.2% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.2% 99.5%  
115 0.2% 99.4%  
116 0.8% 99.2% Majority
117 2% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 4% 93%  
121 3% 89%  
122 2% 87%  
123 15% 84%  
124 1.3% 70%  
125 7% 68%  
126 7% 61% Median
127 2% 55% Last Result
128 7% 53%  
129 17% 45%  
130 9% 29%  
131 13% 20%  
132 1.3% 7%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.1% 4%  
135 1.2% 3%  
136 0.5% 1.4%  
137 0.1% 0.9%  
138 0.1% 0.7%  
139 0.4% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.7%  
111 0.6% 99.3%  
112 2% 98.7%  
113 0.8% 96%  
114 3% 96%  
115 3% 93%  
116 5% 90% Majority
117 2% 85%  
118 2% 83%  
119 6% 80%  
120 7% 74% Last Result
121 7% 68%  
122 10% 60% Median
123 5% 50%  
124 14% 45%  
125 4% 31%  
126 13% 26%  
127 5% 14%  
128 3% 9%  
129 3% 6%  
130 0.9% 4%  
131 0.6% 3%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.2% 2%  
134 0.1% 1.4%  
135 1.1% 1.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.8% 99.4%  
105 1.3% 98.6%  
106 3% 97%  
107 2% 94%  
108 3% 92% Last Result
109 5% 89%  
110 0.8% 84%  
111 4% 83%  
112 12% 79%  
113 5% 67%  
114 4% 63%  
115 12% 59% Median
116 3% 47% Majority
117 3% 45%  
118 22% 42%  
119 7% 19%  
120 5% 12%  
121 1.1% 7%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 0.4% 3%  
125 2% 2%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 0.7% 98%  
68 0.4% 97%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 1.1% 94%  
72 2% 93%  
73 6% 91%  
74 3% 85%  
75 11% 81%  
76 24% 71% Median
77 15% 47%  
78 8% 31%  
79 4% 24%  
80 3% 20%  
81 5% 17%  
82 4% 12%  
83 0.5% 8%  
84 2% 7% Last Result
85 3% 5%  
86 0.2% 2%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.4%  
89 0.6% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations