Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 31 May–3 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 40.0% | 38.0–42.0% | 37.5–42.5% | 37.0–43.0% | 36.1–44.0% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 27.2% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–30.9% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 117 | 110–122 | 109–123 | 107–125 | 104–128 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 76 | 70–81 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 63–86 |
| Chega | 1 | 14 | 11–18 | 11–20 | 11–21 | 11–23 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 7 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 5–12 | 4–14 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 | 4–14 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 109 | 2% | 95% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 3% | 89% | |
| 112 | 5% | 86% | |
| 113 | 9% | 81% | |
| 114 | 7% | 72% | |
| 115 | 6% | 65% | |
| 116 | 8% | 59% | Majority |
| 117 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 118 | 10% | 42% | |
| 119 | 10% | 32% | |
| 120 | 7% | 22% | |
| 121 | 5% | 15% | |
| 122 | 3% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 7% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 94% | |
| 70 | 3% | 91% | |
| 71 | 5% | 88% | |
| 72 | 7% | 83% | |
| 73 | 4% | 76% | |
| 74 | 12% | 72% | |
| 75 | 9% | 60% | |
| 76 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 77 | 6% | 35% | |
| 78 | 7% | 29% | |
| 79 | 5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 80 | 7% | 17% | |
| 81 | 2% | 10% | |
| 82 | 4% | 8% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 5% | 90% | |
| 13 | 19% | 84% | |
| 14 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 3% | 42% | |
| 16 | 8% | 38% | |
| 17 | 7% | 30% | |
| 18 | 15% | 23% | |
| 19 | 3% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 7 | 49% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 47% | |
| 9 | 6% | 37% | |
| 10 | 7% | 30% | |
| 11 | 19% | 23% | |
| 12 | 2% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 24% | 90% | |
| 7 | 29% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 37% | |
| 9 | 12% | 27% | |
| 10 | 10% | 15% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 3% | Last Result |
| 13 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 69% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 19% | 27% | |
| 5 | 7% | 8% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 46% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 50% | |
| 3 | 3% | 5% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 28% | 97% | |
| 2 | 60% | 68% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 8% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 133 | 100% | 126–137 | 124–139 | 123–140 | 120–144 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 125 | 97% | 119–130 | 117–131 | 115–133 | 112–136 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 124 | 96% | 117–129 | 116–130 | 115–132 | 112–137 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 117 | 59% | 110–122 | 109–123 | 107–125 | 104–128 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 77 | 0% | 71–82 | 70–84 | 68–85 | 65–88 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 124 | 2% | 97% | |
| 125 | 3% | 95% | |
| 126 | 6% | 92% | |
| 127 | 5% | 86% | |
| 128 | 5% | 82% | |
| 129 | 5% | 77% | |
| 130 | 6% | 71% | |
| 131 | 7% | 65% | Median |
| 132 | 7% | 58% | |
| 133 | 11% | 51% | |
| 134 | 6% | 40% | |
| 135 | 11% | 34% | |
| 136 | 8% | 22% | |
| 137 | 5% | 14% | |
| 138 | 2% | 9% | |
| 139 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 140 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 97% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 96% | |
| 118 | 3% | 94% | |
| 119 | 4% | 91% | |
| 120 | 7% | 87% | |
| 121 | 4% | 80% | |
| 122 | 5% | 75% | |
| 123 | 10% | 70% | |
| 124 | 6% | 61% | Median |
| 125 | 9% | 55% | |
| 126 | 12% | 46% | |
| 127 | 6% | 33% | Last Result |
| 128 | 9% | 27% | |
| 129 | 6% | 18% | |
| 130 | 4% | 13% | |
| 131 | 5% | 9% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 98% | |
| 116 | 3% | 96% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 93% | |
| 118 | 2% | 90% | |
| 119 | 7% | 87% | |
| 120 | 6% | 80% | Last Result |
| 121 | 5% | 74% | |
| 122 | 7% | 69% | |
| 123 | 5% | 62% | |
| 124 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 125 | 7% | 46% | |
| 126 | 12% | 39% | |
| 127 | 8% | 27% | |
| 128 | 6% | 19% | |
| 129 | 5% | 13% | |
| 130 | 3% | 8% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 108 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 109 | 2% | 95% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 3% | 89% | |
| 112 | 5% | 86% | |
| 113 | 9% | 81% | |
| 114 | 7% | 72% | |
| 115 | 6% | 65% | |
| 116 | 8% | 59% | Majority |
| 117 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 118 | 10% | 42% | |
| 119 | 10% | 32% | |
| 120 | 7% | 22% | |
| 121 | 5% | 15% | |
| 122 | 3% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 7% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 3% | 92% | |
| 72 | 4% | 90% | |
| 73 | 6% | 86% | |
| 74 | 6% | 80% | |
| 75 | 9% | 74% | |
| 76 | 12% | 66% | |
| 77 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 78 | 13% | 45% | |
| 79 | 7% | 33% | |
| 80 | 7% | 26% | |
| 81 | 4% | 19% | |
| 82 | 5% | 14% | |
| 83 | 2% | 9% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 85 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): Porto Canal and Sol
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–3 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1021
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%