Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 5–8 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.8% 38.9–42.8% 38.3–43.4% 37.8–43.9% 36.9–44.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.3% 25.6–29.1% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
Chega 1.3% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 118 111–122 109–124 108–126 105–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 74 68–80 67–82 65–83 63–86
Chega 1 17 13–21 12–22 11–23 11–24
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 6–10 5–11 5–11 3–13
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–11 5–13 5–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 2–4 2–4 1–5 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.7% 99.4%  
107 0.9% 98.7%  
108 1.0% 98% Last Result
109 3% 97%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 89%  
113 6% 84%  
114 5% 78%  
115 5% 73%  
116 8% 68% Majority
117 7% 60%  
118 11% 53% Median
119 12% 42%  
120 9% 31%  
121 7% 22%  
122 5% 15%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 4% 94%  
69 6% 90%  
70 3% 84%  
71 8% 81%  
72 5% 74%  
73 11% 68%  
74 8% 57% Median
75 7% 49%  
76 8% 41%  
77 11% 34%  
78 6% 23%  
79 4% 17% Last Result
80 4% 13%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.1%  
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 3% 100%  
12 3% 97%  
13 11% 93%  
14 19% 83%  
15 6% 64%  
16 8% 58%  
17 10% 50% Median
18 19% 40%  
19 6% 21%  
20 3% 15%  
21 5% 12%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.7%  
4 1.0% 98.7%  
5 6% 98%  
6 2% 91%  
7 59% 89% Median
8 7% 30%  
9 3% 23%  
10 11% 20%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.7% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 10% 99.7%  
6 14% 90%  
7 34% 76% Median
8 10% 42%  
9 13% 32%  
10 13% 19%  
11 2% 6%  
12 1.1% 4% Last Result
13 1.5% 3%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 9% 97%  
3 73% 88% Median
4 11% 16%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 57% 75% Median
2 18% 19%  
3 0.5% 0.8%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 35% 95%  
2 55% 60% Median
3 4% 5%  
4 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 133 100% 127–138 125–140 123–142 120–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 125 98% 119–130 117–132 116–134 113–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 98% 119–130 117–132 116–133 112–137
Partido Socialista 108 118 68% 111–122 109–124 108–126 105–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 75 0% 69–81 67–83 66–84 64–87

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 0.3% 99.4%  
122 0.6% 99.0%  
123 2% 98%  
124 1.2% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 3% 93%  
127 5% 90%  
128 5% 85%  
129 3% 80%  
130 9% 77%  
131 7% 68%  
132 6% 61% Median
133 9% 55%  
134 12% 46%  
135 8% 34%  
136 9% 27%  
137 4% 18%  
138 6% 14%  
139 2% 7% Last Result
140 2% 5%  
141 0.9% 4%  
142 0.6% 3%  
143 0.9% 2%  
144 0.7% 1.3%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.4% 99.6%  
114 0.6% 99.2%  
115 0.9% 98.6%  
116 2% 98% Majority
117 1.4% 95%  
118 3% 94%  
119 3% 91%  
120 5% 88% Last Result
121 5% 83%  
122 4% 78%  
123 11% 74%  
124 8% 64%  
125 7% 55% Median
126 9% 48%  
127 9% 39%  
128 7% 30%  
129 10% 23%  
130 3% 13%  
131 4% 10%  
132 1.4% 6%  
133 1.4% 4%  
134 1.0% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.5% 99.5%  
114 0.6% 99.0%  
115 0.5% 98%  
116 2% 98% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 94%  
119 4% 91%  
120 6% 87%  
121 5% 81%  
122 5% 76%  
123 5% 71%  
124 7% 65%  
125 8% 58% Median
126 12% 50%  
127 10% 38% Last Result
128 8% 27%  
129 6% 20%  
130 4% 13%  
131 4% 10%  
132 2% 6%  
133 1.4% 4%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.7% 99.4%  
107 0.9% 98.7%  
108 1.0% 98% Last Result
109 3% 97%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 89%  
113 6% 84%  
114 5% 78%  
115 5% 73%  
116 8% 68% Majority
117 7% 60%  
118 11% 53% Median
119 12% 42%  
120 9% 31%  
121 7% 22%  
122 5% 15%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.2%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 4% 93%  
70 5% 90%  
71 6% 85%  
72 5% 79%  
73 9% 75%  
74 10% 66%  
75 7% 56% Median
76 7% 49%  
77 9% 42%  
78 10% 33%  
79 6% 23%  
80 4% 17%  
81 4% 13%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.4% 3% Last Result
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.4% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations