Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 10–12 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 37.6% | 35.4–39.9% | 34.8–40.6% | 34.2–41.1% | 33.2–42.2% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 25.2% | 23.2–27.3% | 22.7–27.8% | 22.2–28.4% | 21.3–29.4% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.4–9.6% | 6.2–10.0% | 5.7–10.7% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.0–9.9% | 5.5–10.6% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.1–7.4% | 3.7–8.0% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.5–6.6% | 3.2–7.2% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.3–6.3% | 3.0–6.9% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% | 0.3–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 109 | 103–116 | 101–118 | 99–121 | 96–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 69 | 64–76 | 61–78 | 59–79 | 57–83 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 14 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–20 | 7–22 |
| Chega | 1 | 13 | 11–17 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 8–23 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 10 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 5–14 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 7 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–13 | 3–14 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 6 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 3–11 | 2–12 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 94% | |
| 103 | 4% | 92% | |
| 104 | 4% | 88% | |
| 105 | 5% | 84% | |
| 106 | 6% | 79% | |
| 107 | 11% | 73% | |
| 108 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 109 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 110 | 6% | 41% | |
| 111 | 6% | 35% | |
| 112 | 5% | 29% | |
| 113 | 7% | 24% | |
| 114 | 4% | 18% | |
| 115 | 2% | 14% | |
| 116 | 4% | 11% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 8% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 2% | 96% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 63 | 2% | 93% | |
| 64 | 2% | 91% | |
| 65 | 3% | 89% | |
| 66 | 15% | 86% | |
| 67 | 10% | 71% | |
| 68 | 10% | 60% | |
| 69 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 70 | 9% | 46% | |
| 71 | 5% | 37% | |
| 72 | 8% | 33% | |
| 73 | 5% | 25% | |
| 74 | 5% | 20% | |
| 75 | 4% | 15% | |
| 76 | 3% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 8% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 11 | 6% | 98% | |
| 12 | 7% | 92% | |
| 13 | 8% | 85% | |
| 14 | 29% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 48% | |
| 16 | 11% | 44% | |
| 17 | 10% | 32% | |
| 18 | 17% | 22% | |
| 19 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 4% | 96% | |
| 11 | 28% | 93% | |
| 12 | 10% | 65% | |
| 13 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 46% | |
| 15 | 4% | 16% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 17 | 2% | 11% | |
| 18 | 3% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 5% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 19% | 95% | |
| 7 | 5% | 76% | |
| 8 | 8% | 71% | |
| 9 | 11% | 64% | |
| 10 | 24% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 29% | |
| 12 | 15% | 17% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 5 | 8% | 97% | |
| 6 | 35% | 89% | |
| 7 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 31% | |
| 9 | 4% | 21% | |
| 10 | 11% | 17% | |
| 11 | 3% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 4% | Last Result |
| 13 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 22% | 96% | Last Result |
| 5 | 19% | 75% | |
| 6 | 29% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 26% | |
| 8 | 5% | 23% | |
| 9 | 13% | 18% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 131 | 99.8% | 125–138 | 123–141 | 121–143 | 118–147 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 124 | 96% | 118–131 | 116–133 | 114–135 | 111–140 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 116 | 56% | 110–123 | 108–126 | 106–128 | 103–131 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 109 | 11% | 103–116 | 101–118 | 99–121 | 96–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 69 | 0% | 64–76 | 61–78 | 59–79 | 57–83 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 121 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 123 | 2% | 96% | |
| 124 | 3% | 94% | |
| 125 | 3% | 92% | |
| 126 | 4% | 88% | |
| 127 | 5% | 85% | |
| 128 | 10% | 79% | |
| 129 | 5% | 69% | |
| 130 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 131 | 7% | 53% | |
| 132 | 7% | 46% | |
| 133 | 5% | 39% | |
| 134 | 8% | 35% | |
| 135 | 6% | 27% | |
| 136 | 5% | 21% | |
| 137 | 3% | 16% | |
| 138 | 3% | 13% | |
| 139 | 3% | 10% | Last Result |
| 140 | 2% | 7% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 116 | 2% | 96% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 94% | |
| 118 | 4% | 91% | |
| 119 | 4% | 87% | |
| 120 | 6% | 84% | |
| 121 | 8% | 77% | |
| 122 | 8% | 69% | |
| 123 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 124 | 9% | 52% | |
| 125 | 7% | 43% | |
| 126 | 4% | 36% | |
| 127 | 7% | 32% | Last Result |
| 128 | 5% | 25% | |
| 129 | 5% | 20% | |
| 130 | 4% | 15% | |
| 131 | 3% | 12% | |
| 132 | 2% | 9% | |
| 133 | 2% | 7% | |
| 134 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 108 | 2% | 96% | |
| 109 | 2% | 94% | |
| 110 | 3% | 92% | |
| 111 | 3% | 88% | |
| 112 | 4% | 85% | |
| 113 | 8% | 81% | |
| 114 | 12% | 73% | |
| 115 | 5% | 61% | |
| 116 | 11% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 117 | 7% | 44% | |
| 118 | 6% | 38% | |
| 119 | 6% | 31% | |
| 120 | 4% | 25% | Last Result |
| 121 | 5% | 21% | |
| 122 | 5% | 16% | |
| 123 | 2% | 11% | |
| 124 | 2% | 9% | |
| 125 | 2% | 7% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 127 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 99 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 94% | |
| 103 | 4% | 92% | |
| 104 | 4% | 88% | |
| 105 | 5% | 84% | |
| 106 | 6% | 79% | |
| 107 | 11% | 73% | |
| 108 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 109 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 110 | 6% | 41% | |
| 111 | 6% | 35% | |
| 112 | 5% | 29% | |
| 113 | 7% | 24% | |
| 114 | 4% | 18% | |
| 115 | 2% | 14% | |
| 116 | 4% | 11% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 8% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 119 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 61 | 2% | 96% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 63 | 2% | 93% | |
| 64 | 2% | 91% | |
| 65 | 3% | 89% | |
| 66 | 15% | 86% | |
| 67 | 10% | 71% | |
| 68 | 10% | 60% | |
| 69 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 70 | 9% | 46% | |
| 71 | 5% | 38% | |
| 72 | 8% | 33% | |
| 73 | 5% | 25% | |
| 74 | 5% | 20% | |
| 75 | 4% | 15% | |
| 76 | 3% | 11% | |
| 77 | 2% | 9% | |
| 78 | 3% | 6% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 763
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%