Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 26–29 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.1% 39.1–43.1% 38.6–43.6% 38.1–44.1% 37.2–45.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.3% 25.6–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.7–30.1% 23.9–31.0%
Chega 1.3% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 117 111–122 109–124 108–125 105–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 75 69–79 66–80 64–82 63–86
Chega 1 14 12–19 11–20 11–22 11–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–13 6–14 6–15 5–15
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 4–7 3–9 3–10 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.4% 99.6%  
106 0.7% 99.2%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 3% 95%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 89%  
113 6% 84%  
114 4% 78%  
115 4% 74%  
116 12% 70% Majority
117 14% 57% Median
118 9% 43%  
119 13% 34%  
120 6% 21%  
121 3% 15%  
122 3% 11%  
123 3% 9%  
124 3% 6%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.5%  
128 0.2% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 2% 99.7%  
64 1.3% 98%  
65 0.8% 97%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 1.0% 94%  
68 2% 93%  
69 5% 91%  
70 4% 86%  
71 6% 82%  
72 5% 76%  
73 12% 71%  
74 8% 60%  
75 11% 51% Median
76 12% 40%  
77 6% 28%  
78 11% 22%  
79 2% 11% Last Result
80 5% 9%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.9%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 8% 99.9%  
12 4% 92%  
13 13% 88%  
14 27% 75% Median
15 8% 48%  
16 3% 41%  
17 8% 38%  
18 19% 30%  
19 5% 12%  
20 3% 7%  
21 1.5% 4%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 6% 98.7%  
7 16% 92%  
8 12% 76%  
9 16% 64% Median
10 24% 48%  
11 7% 24%  
12 4% 16% Last Result
13 3% 12%  
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 6% 98%  
4 4% 92%  
5 12% 88%  
6 5% 76%  
7 62% 71% Median
8 3% 9%  
9 1.4% 5%  
10 1.5% 4%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 34% 99.7%  
4 37% 65% Median
5 21% 28%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 24% 97%  
2 66% 73% Median
3 6% 8%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 57% 74% Median
2 16% 17%  
3 0.9% 1.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 133 100% 127–138 125–140 124–143 121–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 127 99.0% 121–132 119–134 117–136 114–139
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 96% 118–129 116–131 114–132 111–135
Partido Socialista 108 117 70% 111–122 109–124 108–125 105–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 76 0% 70–80 67–81 65–82 63–87

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.6%  
122 0.5% 99.3%  
123 1.1% 98.8%  
124 2% 98%  
125 1.4% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 4% 93%  
128 5% 89%  
129 5% 84%  
130 8% 78%  
131 12% 71%  
132 8% 59%  
133 8% 51% Median
134 10% 43%  
135 8% 33%  
136 8% 25%  
137 6% 17%  
138 3% 11%  
139 3% 9% Last Result
140 1.1% 6%  
141 1.2% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.9% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.0%  
146 0.2% 0.6%  
147 0.2% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.5% 99.5%  
116 0.7% 99.0% Majority
117 2% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 3% 93% Last Result
121 6% 90%  
122 5% 85%  
123 5% 80%  
124 11% 75%  
125 6% 64%  
126 8% 58% Median
127 12% 50%  
128 10% 39%  
129 9% 29%  
130 5% 20%  
131 4% 15%  
132 4% 11%  
133 2% 7%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.0% 4%  
136 0.9% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.2%  
139 0.2% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.8%  
112 0.5% 99.5%  
113 0.9% 99.0%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 1.2% 97%  
116 2% 96% Majority
117 3% 93%  
118 2% 90%  
119 6% 88%  
120 7% 82%  
121 5% 75%  
122 8% 70%  
123 15% 63%  
124 12% 48% Median
125 9% 36%  
126 11% 27%  
127 4% 16% Last Result
128 2% 13%  
129 2% 10%  
130 3% 8%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.8% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.3% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.4% 99.6%  
106 0.7% 99.2%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 3% 95%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 89%  
113 6% 84%  
114 4% 78%  
115 4% 74%  
116 12% 70% Majority
117 14% 57% Median
118 9% 43%  
119 13% 34%  
120 6% 21%  
121 3% 15%  
122 3% 11%  
123 3% 9%  
124 3% 6%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.5%  
128 0.2% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.1%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 0.9% 96%  
67 1.1% 95%  
68 1.3% 94%  
69 2% 93%  
70 5% 91%  
71 4% 86%  
72 5% 82%  
73 5% 76%  
74 12% 72%  
75 9% 60%  
76 12% 51% Median
77 11% 39%  
78 7% 28%  
79 10% 21%  
80 3% 11%  
81 4% 8%  
82 1.4% 4%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.4% 2% Last Result
85 0.5% 1.4%  
86 0.4% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations