Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 16–19 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.3% 39.3–43.2% 38.8–43.8% 38.3–44.3% 37.4–45.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.3% 25.6–29.1% 25.1–29.6% 24.7–30.1% 23.9–30.9%
Chega 1.3% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 110–120 108–122 106–124 104–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 72 66–77 64–79 63–80 62–83
Chega 1 15 13–20 11–21 11–22 11–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–13 6–14 6–15 5–15
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 7–11 7–11 5–12 3–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–7 4–9 4–9 3–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.7% 99.5%  
105 0.9% 98.9%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 3% 96% Last Result
109 2% 92%  
110 5% 90%  
111 4% 85%  
112 7% 82%  
113 6% 75%  
114 7% 69%  
115 13% 62% Median
116 11% 49% Majority
117 8% 38%  
118 12% 30%  
119 5% 17%  
120 3% 13%  
121 4% 10%  
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.6% 3%  
125 0.5% 2%  
126 0.8% 1.4%  
127 0.4% 0.6%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.7%  
63 3% 99.1%  
64 3% 96%  
65 1.2% 94%  
66 3% 92%  
67 2% 90%  
68 9% 87%  
69 12% 79%  
70 10% 66%  
71 6% 56%  
72 5% 50% Median
73 10% 45%  
74 4% 36%  
75 5% 31%  
76 12% 26%  
77 5% 14%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 5% Last Result
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 6% 99.9%  
12 2% 94%  
13 7% 91%  
14 33% 85%  
15 9% 52% Median
16 5% 43%  
17 6% 38%  
18 15% 32%  
19 6% 16%  
20 5% 10%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.5% 100%  
6 5% 98.5%  
7 18% 93%  
8 15% 75%  
9 8% 60%  
10 28% 53% Median
11 6% 25%  
12 4% 18% Last Result
13 6% 14%  
14 4% 7%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.9%  
4 0.5% 99.3%  
5 2% 98.8%  
6 0.9% 97%  
7 51% 96% Median
8 10% 45%  
9 8% 36%  
10 4% 28%  
11 20% 24%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 1.4%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 9% 99.1%  
5 25% 90%  
6 53% 65% Median
7 3% 12%  
8 3% 9%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 15% 99.0%  
2 70% 84% Median
3 9% 14%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 47% 56% Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 133 100% 127–139 125–140 123–142 120–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 125 96% 118–131 117–132 115–134 113–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 96% 118–129 116–130 114–132 111–134
Partido Socialista 108 115 49% 110–120 108–122 106–124 104–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 72 0% 67–78 65–79 64–81 62–84

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.7% 98.9%  
123 0.8% 98%  
124 1.3% 97%  
125 3% 96%  
126 3% 93%  
127 3% 90%  
128 4% 87%  
129 7% 84%  
130 4% 77%  
131 12% 73%  
132 8% 61% Median
133 7% 53%  
134 6% 46%  
135 7% 40%  
136 9% 33%  
137 10% 24%  
138 4% 14%  
139 5% 11% Last Result
140 1.1% 6%  
141 1.1% 5%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 0.8% 2%  
144 1.1% 2%  
145 0.4% 0.6%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.5% 99.6%  
114 1.3% 99.1%  
115 2% 98%  
116 1.0% 96% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 4% 93%  
119 2% 89%  
120 7% 87% Last Result
121 5% 80%  
122 8% 75%  
123 5% 67%  
124 8% 62%  
125 9% 54% Median
126 11% 45%  
127 6% 34%  
128 9% 28%  
129 5% 19%  
130 3% 14%  
131 4% 11%  
132 3% 7%  
133 1.3% 4%  
134 1.0% 3%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 0.7% 1.5%  
137 0.5% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.4% 99.7%  
112 0.6% 99.4%  
113 1.0% 98.8%  
114 0.9% 98%  
115 1.0% 97%  
116 1.4% 96% Majority
117 4% 95%  
118 3% 91%  
119 5% 88%  
120 5% 83%  
121 5% 78%  
122 9% 73% Median
123 14% 63%  
124 7% 49%  
125 10% 42%  
126 8% 31%  
127 9% 23% Last Result
128 4% 14%  
129 4% 10%  
130 3% 7%  
131 1.2% 4%  
132 1.0% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 1.0% 1.5%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.7% 99.5%  
105 0.9% 98.9%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 3% 96% Last Result
109 2% 92%  
110 5% 90%  
111 4% 85%  
112 7% 82%  
113 6% 75%  
114 7% 69%  
115 13% 62% Median
116 11% 49% Majority
117 8% 38%  
118 12% 30%  
119 5% 17%  
120 3% 13%  
121 4% 10%  
122 2% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.6% 3%  
125 0.5% 2%  
126 0.8% 1.4%  
127 0.4% 0.6%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.4%  
64 3% 98%  
65 2% 95%  
66 2% 94%  
67 3% 92%  
68 5% 89%  
69 10% 84%  
70 12% 74%  
71 6% 62%  
72 6% 55%  
73 6% 49% Median
74 8% 43%  
75 5% 35%  
76 11% 30%  
77 7% 19%  
78 5% 12%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations