Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Sol, 20–23 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.5% 39.5–43.5% 39.0–44.0% 38.5–44.5% 37.6–45.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.2% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.0% 23.8–30.9%
Chega 1.3% 8.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 116 111–122 109–124 107–125 104–128
Partido Social Democrata 79 72 66–77 64–80 63–80 62–84
Chega 1 15 12–19 11–20 11–22 11–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–11 6–13 5–14 5–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 6–10 5–10 5–12 4–12
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–8 3–10 3–11 2–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 2–3 1–4 1–4 1–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.4%  
106 1.0% 99.0%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 6% 91%  
112 6% 85%  
113 5% 79%  
114 4% 74%  
115 8% 70%  
116 14% 62% Median, Majority
117 6% 47%  
118 15% 41%  
119 5% 27%  
120 5% 21%  
121 4% 16%  
122 3% 11%  
123 3% 9%  
124 0.9% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 2%  
127 0.8% 1.5%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 4% 99.4%  
64 3% 96%  
65 1.2% 93%  
66 2% 92%  
67 4% 90%  
68 5% 86%  
69 10% 81%  
70 9% 71%  
71 10% 61%  
72 7% 51% Median
73 5% 44%  
74 7% 39%  
75 6% 32%  
76 9% 26%  
77 7% 17%  
78 2% 10%  
79 2% 8% Last Result
80 3% 6%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 8% 99.8%  
12 5% 92%  
13 7% 87%  
14 29% 80%  
15 12% 51% Median
16 5% 39%  
17 6% 35%  
18 14% 29%  
19 7% 14%  
20 3% 7%  
21 2% 5%  
22 1.4% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.1%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 17% 95%  
7 25% 78%  
8 11% 53% Median
9 9% 42%  
10 23% 33%  
11 3% 10%  
12 2% 7% Last Result
13 2% 5%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 7% 99.5%  
6 52% 93% Median
7 6% 41%  
8 5% 35%  
9 16% 30%  
10 10% 15%  
11 2% 5%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 5% 99.2%  
4 1.4% 94%  
5 7% 93%  
6 3% 86%  
7 69% 82% Median
8 5% 13%  
9 1.1% 8%  
10 2% 7%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 10% 99.7%  
2 69% 90% Median
3 14% 21%  
4 6% 7% Last Result
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 48% 56% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 132 99.9% 125–138 124–140 122–142 119–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 125 97% 118–131 117–133 115–135 112–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 95% 118–129 116–131 114–132 111–135
Partido Socialista 108 116 62% 111–122 109–124 107–125 104–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 72 0% 67–78 64–80 64–81 63–85

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.3% 99.8%  
119 0.4% 99.6%  
120 0.5% 99.1%  
121 0.6% 98.7%  
122 1.4% 98%  
123 0.9% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 5% 94%  
126 5% 89%  
127 6% 84%  
128 5% 78%  
129 9% 73%  
130 5% 64%  
131 6% 59% Median
132 8% 52%  
133 10% 44%  
134 10% 34%  
135 8% 25%  
136 4% 17%  
137 2% 13%  
138 2% 10%  
139 2% 9% Last Result
140 3% 7%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.9% 3%  
143 1.0% 2%  
144 0.4% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.6% 99.4%  
114 0.7% 98.8%  
115 2% 98%  
116 1.1% 97% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 4% 94%  
119 4% 89%  
120 6% 86% Last Result
121 5% 80%  
122 9% 75%  
123 5% 66%  
124 7% 61% Median
125 10% 54%  
126 10% 44%  
127 10% 34%  
128 8% 25%  
129 4% 16%  
130 2% 13%  
131 1.4% 10%  
132 2% 9%  
133 3% 7%  
134 0.7% 4%  
135 1.3% 3%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.0%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.6% 99.3%  
113 1.0% 98.7%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 2% 95% Majority
117 2% 93%  
118 6% 91%  
119 6% 85%  
120 6% 78%  
121 5% 72%  
122 8% 67%  
123 12% 59% Median
124 7% 47%  
125 14% 41%  
126 6% 27%  
127 6% 21% Last Result
128 4% 16%  
129 2% 12%  
130 4% 9%  
131 1.0% 6%  
132 3% 5%  
133 0.9% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.4%  
106 1.0% 99.0%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 6% 91%  
112 6% 85%  
113 5% 79%  
114 4% 74%  
115 8% 70%  
116 14% 62% Median, Majority
117 6% 47%  
118 15% 41%  
119 5% 27%  
120 5% 21%  
121 4% 16%  
122 3% 11%  
123 3% 9%  
124 0.9% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 2%  
127 0.8% 1.5%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.2% 99.6%  
64 5% 98%  
65 1.4% 94%  
66 1.3% 92%  
67 2% 91%  
68 5% 89%  
69 9% 84%  
70 8% 75%  
71 9% 68%  
72 10% 58%  
73 6% 48% Median
74 5% 42%  
75 6% 37%  
76 9% 31%  
77 8% 22%  
78 5% 15%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 7%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations