Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 18–21 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.1% 36.2–40.1% 35.7–40.7% 35.2–41.2% 34.3–42.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.5% 25.8–29.4% 25.3–29.9% 24.9–30.3% 24.1–31.2%
Chega 1.3% 9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 109 103–115 101–116 99–117 96–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 75 69–81 67–83 66–85 64–88
Chega 1 17 14–21 12–23 11–23 11–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 6–13 6–14 5–14 5–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 6–12 6–12 6–12 5–13
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–10 4–11 3–11 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 0.5% 99.3%  
98 0.6% 98.8%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 3% 94%  
103 4% 91%  
104 5% 87%  
105 6% 82%  
106 7% 76%  
107 9% 69%  
108 7% 59% Last Result
109 11% 53% Median
110 5% 41%  
111 10% 36%  
112 5% 25%  
113 3% 20%  
114 5% 17%  
115 5% 12%  
116 3% 7% Majority
117 2% 4%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 92%  
70 7% 87%  
71 6% 81%  
72 5% 74%  
73 5% 69%  
74 9% 64%  
75 7% 55% Median
76 6% 48%  
77 10% 43%  
78 5% 33%  
79 9% 28% Last Result
80 7% 19%  
81 4% 12%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 6%  
84 0.9% 4%  
85 1.3% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 3% 100%  
12 2% 97%  
13 5% 95%  
14 21% 90%  
15 9% 69%  
16 8% 59%  
17 6% 51% Median
18 11% 45%  
19 9% 34%  
20 8% 25%  
21 8% 16%  
22 3% 8%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 16% 97%  
7 18% 81%  
8 11% 63%  
9 10% 51% Median
10 21% 41%  
11 6% 20%  
12 4% 14% Last Result
13 2% 10%  
14 6% 8%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 34% 98%  
7 7% 64%  
8 8% 57% Median
9 17% 49%  
10 15% 33%  
11 7% 18%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.8% 1.2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 3% 99.3%  
4 2% 96%  
5 5% 94%  
6 5% 90%  
7 68% 85% Median
8 4% 17%  
9 3% 13%  
10 3% 10%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 1.4%  
13 0.2% 0.6%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 64% 95% Median
3 15% 31%  
4 14% 16% Last Result
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 52% 91% Median
2 34% 39%  
3 5% 6%  
4 0.5% 0.9%  
5 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 125 96% 118–132 116–134 114–135 111–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 117 68% 111–124 109–126 107–128 104–130
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 116 53% 110–122 108–124 106–125 103–128
Partido Socialista 108 109 7% 103–115 101–116 99–117 96–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 77 0% 70–82 68–84 68–86 65–89

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.5% 99.3%  
113 0.9% 98.8%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 1.2% 97%  
116 1.5% 96% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 92%  
119 4% 89%  
120 4% 85%  
121 7% 81%  
122 6% 74%  
123 7% 67%  
124 10% 61%  
125 8% 50% Median
126 7% 42%  
127 9% 36%  
128 6% 27%  
129 5% 21%  
130 4% 16%  
131 2% 13%  
132 3% 10%  
133 2% 8%  
134 2% 6%  
135 2% 4%  
136 1.2% 2%  
137 0.5% 0.9%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.4% 99.7%  
105 0.5% 99.3%  
106 0.8% 98.8%  
107 0.6% 98%  
108 1.3% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 4% 89%  
113 4% 85%  
114 7% 81%  
115 7% 75%  
116 7% 68% Majority
117 11% 61%  
118 9% 50% Median
119 9% 41%  
120 7% 32% Last Result
121 5% 25%  
122 5% 19%  
123 3% 15%  
124 3% 12%  
125 3% 9%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.4% 4%  
128 1.0% 3%  
129 1.0% 2%  
130 0.5% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.2%  
105 0.6% 98.8%  
106 1.4% 98%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 2% 96%  
109 3% 93%  
110 4% 90%  
111 4% 86%  
112 5% 82%  
113 7% 77%  
114 10% 70%  
115 7% 60%  
116 11% 53% Median, Majority
117 5% 42%  
118 10% 37%  
119 5% 27%  
120 4% 22%  
121 5% 18%  
122 5% 13%  
123 3% 9%  
124 2% 6%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
128 0.4% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 0.5% 99.3%  
98 0.6% 98.8%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 3% 94%  
103 4% 91%  
104 5% 87%  
105 6% 82%  
106 7% 76%  
107 9% 69%  
108 7% 59% Last Result
109 11% 53% Median
110 5% 41%  
111 10% 36%  
112 5% 25%  
113 3% 20%  
114 5% 17%  
115 5% 12%  
116 3% 7% Majority
117 2% 4%  
118 0.9% 2%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.9%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.4%  
67 1.2% 99.1%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 4% 92%  
71 4% 88%  
72 7% 84%  
73 5% 77%  
74 5% 72%  
75 9% 68%  
76 8% 59% Median
77 7% 51%  
78 8% 45%  
79 6% 36%  
80 8% 30%  
81 8% 22%  
82 4% 13%  
83 3% 10%  
84 2% 7% Last Result
85 1.1% 4%  
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.2%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations