Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 28–31 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.5% 36.3–40.7% 35.7–41.4% 35.2–41.9% 34.1–43.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.4% 22.5–26.4% 22.0–27.0% 21.6–27.5% 20.7–28.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.8% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.7% 7.1–11.0% 6.5–11.7%
Chega 1.3% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.2% 3.5–6.4% 3.1–7.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.0% 3.4–6.3% 3.0–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 113 107–120 105–123 103–125 101–128
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 61–75 58–76 57–77 55–80
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 14–21 14–22 13–23 11–25
Chega 1 13 11–17 10–19 10–20 8–22
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–10 5–11 4–12 4–12
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 5–10 5–10 4–10 3–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 2–4 2–4 1–5 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.5% 99.6%  
102 0.6% 99.0%  
103 1.0% 98%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 3% 94%  
107 5% 91%  
108 6% 86% Last Result
109 5% 80%  
110 6% 75%  
111 8% 69%  
112 9% 61%  
113 6% 52% Median
114 8% 47%  
115 7% 39%  
116 6% 32% Majority
117 5% 26%  
118 4% 20%  
119 3% 16%  
120 5% 13%  
121 2% 8%  
122 1.4% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.1%  
128 0.5% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.7%  
56 0.3% 99.0%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 2% 93%  
61 4% 91%  
62 2% 87%  
63 3% 85%  
64 5% 82%  
65 7% 76%  
66 13% 70%  
67 8% 57% Median
68 8% 49%  
69 8% 41%  
70 7% 33%  
71 6% 26%  
72 3% 20%  
73 3% 17%  
74 3% 14%  
75 5% 11%  
76 2% 7%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 0.7% 99.1%  
13 2% 98%  
14 9% 96%  
15 5% 87%  
16 13% 82%  
17 8% 69%  
18 35% 61% Median
19 8% 26% Last Result
20 5% 18%  
21 4% 13%  
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.9%  
9 1.0% 99.1%  
10 4% 98%  
11 25% 94%  
12 11% 69%  
13 9% 58% Median
14 29% 49%  
15 6% 20%  
16 3% 14%  
17 2% 11%  
18 2% 9%  
19 4% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 3% 99.6%  
5 12% 96%  
6 54% 84% Median
7 6% 31%  
8 3% 25%  
9 7% 22%  
10 9% 14%  
11 2% 6%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 1.5% 99.8%  
4 2% 98%  
5 15% 96%  
6 37% 81% Median
7 17% 45%  
8 10% 28%  
9 5% 18%  
10 11% 13%  
11 0.8% 2%  
12 0.4% 2% Last Result
13 0.6% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 47% 95% Median
3 17% 48%  
4 26% 31% Last Result
5 4% 5%  
6 0.8% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 49% 61% Median
2 11% 13%  
3 1.4% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 137 100% 130–145 129–147 128–149 125–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 131 99.9% 124–138 122–140 121–142 118–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 79% 113–127 112–129 110–131 107–136
Partido Socialista 108 113 32% 107–120 105–123 103–125 101–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 68 0% 61–76 59–77 58–78 55–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 99.5%  
126 0.5% 99.0%  
127 0.8% 98.5%  
128 2% 98%  
129 2% 96%  
130 5% 94%  
131 3% 89%  
132 5% 86%  
133 4% 82%  
134 5% 77%  
135 10% 73%  
136 8% 63%  
137 6% 55% Median
138 7% 49%  
139 6% 43% Last Result
140 7% 37%  
141 4% 30%  
142 4% 26%  
143 5% 22%  
144 5% 17%  
145 4% 12%  
146 2% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 1.3% 4%  
149 1.5% 3%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.0%  
152 0.3% 0.7%  
153 0.1% 0.4%  
154 0.3% 0.3%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.4% 99.6%  
119 0.5% 99.2%  
120 0.8% 98.8%  
121 1.1% 98%  
122 2% 97%  
123 3% 95%  
124 4% 92%  
125 6% 87%  
126 4% 82%  
127 5% 78% Last Result
128 7% 73%  
129 8% 65%  
130 7% 57%  
131 7% 50% Median
132 6% 43%  
133 8% 37%  
134 4% 29%  
135 4% 26%  
136 4% 22%  
137 4% 18%  
138 5% 14%  
139 3% 9%  
140 2% 6%  
141 2% 5%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.1%  
145 0.2% 0.8%  
146 0.3% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.4% 99.2%  
109 0.6% 98.9%  
110 0.9% 98%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 4% 93%  
114 6% 90%  
115 5% 84%  
116 4% 79% Majority
117 10% 75%  
118 7% 65%  
119 5% 58% Median
120 8% 53% Last Result
121 5% 45%  
122 9% 41%  
123 6% 31%  
124 4% 26%  
125 8% 22%  
126 2% 14%  
127 3% 13%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.3%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.5% 0.5%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.5% 99.6%  
102 0.6% 99.0%  
103 1.0% 98%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 3% 94%  
107 5% 91%  
108 6% 86% Last Result
109 5% 80%  
110 6% 75%  
111 8% 69%  
112 9% 61%  
113 6% 52% Median
114 8% 47%  
115 7% 39%  
116 6% 32% Majority
117 5% 26%  
118 4% 20%  
119 3% 16%  
120 5% 13%  
121 2% 8%  
122 1.4% 7%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 0.9% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.1%  
128 0.5% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 4% 93%  
62 2% 88%  
63 2% 86%  
64 5% 84%  
65 4% 79%  
66 8% 75%  
67 12% 67%  
68 8% 55% Median
69 7% 47%  
70 9% 40%  
71 5% 30%  
72 5% 25%  
73 4% 20%  
74 2% 16%  
75 3% 14%  
76 5% 11%  
77 3% 6%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations