Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 21 October–1 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.0% 37.8–42.2% 37.2–42.9% 36.7–43.4% 35.6–44.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.0% 24.1–28.1% 23.5–28.7% 23.1–29.2% 22.2–30.2%
Chega 1.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.3–7.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 117 109–123 107–125 105–126 102–130
Partido Social Democrata 79 70 65–78 64–79 62–81 60–84
Chega 1 20 16–24 14–26 14–27 12–29
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 6–15 6–16 5–18
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–10 5–11 3–11 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.4%  
104 0.3% 99.1%  
105 1.4% 98.8%  
106 1.1% 97%  
107 3% 96%  
108 2% 93% Last Result
109 3% 92%  
110 3% 88%  
111 5% 85%  
112 3% 80%  
113 4% 77%  
114 4% 73%  
115 6% 69%  
116 6% 63% Majority
117 9% 57% Median
118 7% 48%  
119 14% 41%  
120 5% 27%  
121 7% 22%  
122 4% 15%  
123 3% 12%  
124 2% 8%  
125 3% 7%  
126 1.5% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.2% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.3%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 7% 93%  
66 1.4% 87%  
67 8% 85%  
68 10% 77%  
69 13% 67%  
70 11% 54% Median
71 3% 43%  
72 4% 40%  
73 4% 36%  
74 4% 32%  
75 7% 27%  
76 6% 20%  
77 3% 14%  
78 3% 11%  
79 3% 8% Last Result
80 2% 5%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.4%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.3%  
14 5% 98%  
15 1.4% 92%  
16 6% 91%  
17 7% 85%  
18 18% 78%  
19 8% 60%  
20 12% 52% Median
21 9% 40%  
22 12% 31%  
23 4% 19%  
24 6% 15%  
25 3% 9%  
26 3% 6%  
27 0.6% 3%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.8%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 3% 98%  
7 12% 94%  
8 6% 83%  
9 14% 77%  
10 18% 62% Median
11 9% 44%  
12 10% 35% Last Result
13 9% 25%  
14 9% 16%  
15 4% 7%  
16 1.4% 3%  
17 0.8% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 1.4% 98.6%  
4 1.3% 97%  
5 11% 96%  
6 4% 85%  
7 57% 81% Median
8 7% 24%  
9 5% 18%  
10 5% 13%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.5%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 34% 92%  
2 52% 58% Median
3 5% 6%  
4 1.4% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 27% 99.7% Last Result
2 17% 72%  
3 51% 55% Median
4 3% 4%  
5 1.4% 1.5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 135 100% 126–141 125–143 123–145 120–148
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 97% 119–134 117–136 115–138 112–141
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 125 93% 116–130 114–132 112–133 109–137
Partido Socialista 108 117 63% 109–123 107–125 105–126 102–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 65–78 64–80 62–81 60–85

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.5%  
121 0.9% 99.2%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 1.2% 98%  
124 1.1% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 4% 94%  
127 3% 90%  
128 4% 87%  
129 3% 83%  
130 7% 80%  
131 3% 73%  
132 3% 70%  
133 8% 67%  
134 4% 59% Median
135 6% 54%  
136 9% 48%  
137 12% 40%  
138 7% 28%  
139 8% 21% Last Result
140 3% 13%  
141 4% 11%  
142 1.2% 6%  
143 0.9% 5%  
144 1.2% 4%  
145 0.9% 3%  
146 0.9% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.2%  
148 0.3% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.9% 99.1%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 2% 97% Majority
117 1.2% 95%  
118 2% 94%  
119 4% 92%  
120 3% 88% Last Result
121 4% 86%  
122 3% 82%  
123 6% 79%  
124 4% 73%  
125 4% 69%  
126 8% 65%  
127 6% 57% Median
128 5% 51%  
129 11% 46%  
130 8% 35%  
131 7% 27%  
132 6% 19%  
133 2% 14%  
134 5% 12%  
135 2% 7%  
136 0.8% 5%  
137 1.3% 4%  
138 0.9% 3%  
139 1.1% 2%  
140 0.5% 1.0%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.2% 99.2%  
112 2% 98.9%  
113 0.9% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 94%  
116 3% 93% Majority
117 3% 90%  
118 4% 87%  
119 5% 82%  
120 4% 78%  
121 4% 74%  
122 7% 70%  
123 6% 63%  
124 6% 57% Median
125 11% 52%  
126 10% 40%  
127 6% 30% Last Result
128 7% 24%  
129 4% 17%  
130 4% 13%  
131 3% 9%  
132 2% 6%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.5%  
136 0.3% 0.9%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.4%  
104 0.3% 99.1%  
105 1.4% 98.8%  
106 1.1% 97%  
107 3% 96%  
108 2% 93% Last Result
109 3% 92%  
110 3% 88%  
111 5% 85%  
112 3% 80%  
113 4% 77%  
114 4% 73%  
115 6% 69%  
116 6% 63% Majority
117 9% 57% Median
118 7% 48%  
119 14% 41%  
120 5% 27%  
121 7% 22%  
122 4% 15%  
123 3% 12%  
124 2% 8%  
125 3% 7%  
126 1.5% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.2% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.4%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 7% 94%  
66 1.0% 87%  
67 9% 86%  
68 10% 77%  
69 12% 67%  
70 12% 55% Median
71 3% 44%  
72 4% 40%  
73 4% 36%  
74 4% 32%  
75 7% 28%  
76 6% 21%  
77 4% 14%  
78 3% 11%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.4%  
84 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations