Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP, 29 October–4 November 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 39.0% | 36.9–41.1% | 36.3–41.7% | 35.8–42.2% | 34.8–43.3% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 30.0% | 28.0–32.0% | 27.5–32.6% | 27.0–33.1% | 26.1–34.1% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.4–8.8% | 5.0–9.4% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 110 | 103–116 | 102–118 | 99–119 | 95–121 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 82 | 76–88 | 75–89 | 73–92 | 70–97 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 13 | 8–15 | 7–16 | 7–17 | 7–18 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 8 | 5–9 | 5–12 | 5–13 | 5–14 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 6 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 4–12 |
| Chega | 1 | 7 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–11 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 102 | 2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 3% | 90% | |
| 105 | 5% | 86% | |
| 106 | 6% | 82% | |
| 107 | 9% | 76% | |
| 108 | 7% | 67% | Last Result |
| 109 | 7% | 60% | |
| 110 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 111 | 6% | 45% | |
| 112 | 5% | 38% | |
| 113 | 7% | 33% | |
| 114 | 6% | 26% | |
| 115 | 5% | 20% | |
| 116 | 6% | 15% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 9% | |
| 118 | 3% | 7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 2% | 96% | |
| 76 | 6% | 93% | |
| 77 | 10% | 87% | |
| 78 | 6% | 77% | |
| 79 | 7% | 71% | Last Result |
| 80 | 7% | 64% | |
| 81 | 5% | 58% | |
| 82 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 83 | 6% | 41% | |
| 84 | 9% | 35% | |
| 85 | 6% | 26% | |
| 86 | 5% | 20% | |
| 87 | 4% | 16% | |
| 88 | 5% | 12% | |
| 89 | 2% | 7% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 93% | |
| 9 | 5% | 89% | |
| 10 | 6% | 84% | |
| 11 | 13% | 77% | |
| 12 | 12% | 65% | |
| 13 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 23% | 41% | |
| 15 | 12% | 18% | |
| 16 | 3% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 17% | 86% | |
| 7 | 14% | 69% | |
| 8 | 44% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 8% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 7% | 97% | |
| 6 | 50% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 40% | |
| 8 | 9% | 32% | |
| 9 | 9% | 23% | |
| 10 | 8% | 14% | |
| 11 | 2% | 6% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 97% | |
| 5 | 6% | 77% | |
| 6 | 10% | 71% | |
| 7 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 45% | |
| 9 | 8% | 20% | |
| 10 | 7% | 12% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 43% | 96% | |
| 3 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 33% | 35% | Last Result |
| 5 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | |
| 1 | 58% | 68% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 129 | 99.2% | 123–137 | 121–138 | 119–139 | 115–142 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 122 | 91% | 116–129 | 114–130 | 111–131 | 107–134 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 117 | 63% | 111–124 | 109–126 | 107–127 | 102–129 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 110 | 15% | 103–116 | 102–118 | 99–119 | 95–121 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 82 | 0% | 77–89 | 75–90 | 74–93 | 71–98 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 121 | 2% | 96% | |
| 122 | 2% | 94% | |
| 123 | 3% | 92% | |
| 124 | 4% | 89% | |
| 125 | 6% | 85% | |
| 126 | 8% | 79% | |
| 127 | 6% | 71% | |
| 128 | 6% | 65% | |
| 129 | 10% | 59% | |
| 130 | 6% | 50% | |
| 131 | 6% | 43% | Median |
| 132 | 4% | 37% | |
| 133 | 8% | 34% | |
| 134 | 6% | 26% | |
| 135 | 3% | 20% | |
| 136 | 6% | 17% | |
| 137 | 4% | 11% | |
| 138 | 3% | 6% | |
| 139 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 140 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 113 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 114 | 2% | 95% | |
| 115 | 2% | 93% | |
| 116 | 3% | 91% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 88% | |
| 118 | 6% | 83% | |
| 119 | 8% | 77% | |
| 120 | 8% | 69% | |
| 121 | 8% | 62% | |
| 122 | 8% | 54% | |
| 123 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 124 | 4% | 40% | |
| 125 | 5% | 36% | |
| 126 | 9% | 31% | |
| 127 | 4% | 22% | Last Result |
| 128 | 7% | 18% | |
| 129 | 5% | 12% | |
| 130 | 3% | 7% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 107 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 109 | 2% | 95% | |
| 110 | 3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 5% | 91% | |
| 112 | 4% | 86% | |
| 113 | 6% | 82% | |
| 114 | 5% | 76% | |
| 115 | 8% | 71% | |
| 116 | 8% | 63% | Majority |
| 117 | 6% | 56% | |
| 118 | 7% | 49% | Median |
| 119 | 7% | 42% | |
| 120 | 6% | 35% | Last Result |
| 121 | 6% | 30% | |
| 122 | 6% | 24% | |
| 123 | 4% | 18% | |
| 124 | 5% | 14% | |
| 125 | 2% | 9% | |
| 126 | 4% | 7% | |
| 127 | 2% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 101 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 102 | 2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 3% | 93% | |
| 104 | 3% | 90% | |
| 105 | 5% | 86% | |
| 106 | 6% | 82% | |
| 107 | 9% | 76% | |
| 108 | 7% | 67% | Last Result |
| 109 | 7% | 60% | |
| 110 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 111 | 6% | 45% | |
| 112 | 5% | 38% | |
| 113 | 7% | 33% | |
| 114 | 6% | 26% | |
| 115 | 5% | 20% | |
| 116 | 6% | 15% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 9% | |
| 118 | 3% | 7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 97% | |
| 76 | 3% | 95% | |
| 77 | 8% | 92% | |
| 78 | 8% | 84% | |
| 79 | 8% | 76% | |
| 80 | 4% | 68% | |
| 81 | 7% | 64% | |
| 82 | 9% | 57% | |
| 83 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 84 | 8% | 41% | Last Result |
| 85 | 9% | 33% | |
| 86 | 6% | 25% | |
| 87 | 4% | 19% | |
| 88 | 4% | 15% | |
| 89 | 6% | 12% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 93 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CESOP–UCP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 October–4 November 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 878
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.87%