Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 10–15 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.2% 35.8–40.8% 35.1–41.5% 34.5–42.1% 33.3–43.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 32.2% 29.8–34.6% 29.2–35.3% 28.6–35.9% 27.5–37.1%
Chega 1.3% 7.0% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.9% 5.3–9.3% 4.8–10.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.9–7.5% 3.5–8.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.7% 2.9–6.0% 2.5–6.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.9–3.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 106 98–114 96–116 94–118 90–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 88 81–97 79–98 77–100 75–104
Chega 1 11 9–14 8–15 8–18 6–19
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–12 5–12 4–13 3–15
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–13 5–15 3–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–8 4–9 3–10 3–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.4% 99.2%  
93 0.9% 98.8%  
94 1.0% 98%  
95 1.4% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 1.5% 94%  
98 4% 92%  
99 5% 88%  
100 3% 83%  
101 3% 80%  
102 2% 77%  
103 4% 75%  
104 6% 71%  
105 4% 65%  
106 12% 60% Median
107 10% 49%  
108 5% 39% Last Result
109 7% 35%  
110 5% 27%  
111 3% 23%  
112 4% 19%  
113 3% 16%  
114 5% 13%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 7% Majority
117 1.4% 5%  
118 1.0% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 99.0%  
77 1.4% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95% Last Result
80 3% 93%  
81 3% 91%  
82 5% 88%  
83 4% 83%  
84 3% 79%  
85 7% 76%  
86 8% 69%  
87 7% 61%  
88 7% 54% Median
89 9% 47%  
90 4% 38%  
91 5% 34%  
92 3% 28%  
93 5% 25%  
94 3% 20%  
95 3% 18%  
96 3% 15%  
97 3% 12%  
98 4% 8%  
99 1.4% 5%  
100 0.8% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.5% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.1%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.1% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0.2% 99.6%  
7 0.5% 99.4%  
8 5% 99.0%  
9 5% 94%  
10 8% 89%  
11 50% 81% Median
12 8% 31%  
13 9% 23%  
14 6% 14%  
15 2% 7%  
16 1.3% 5%  
17 1.0% 4%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 2% 99.6%  
4 3% 98%  
5 5% 95%  
6 2% 90%  
7 43% 88% Median
8 9% 45%  
9 10% 36%  
10 7% 26%  
11 8% 19%  
12 7% 11%  
13 2% 4%  
14 0.7% 2%  
15 1.0% 1.5%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.5%  
5 14% 99.1%  
6 18% 85%  
7 18% 67% Median
8 21% 49%  
9 16% 28%  
10 3% 12%  
11 1.4% 9%  
12 1.3% 7% Last Result
13 2% 6%  
14 1.1% 4%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 21% 95%  
5 18% 74%  
6 41% 56% Median
7 4% 15%  
8 5% 11%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.2% 3%  
11 0.7% 1.4%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 42% 86% Median
2 37% 44%  
3 3% 7%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 122 83% 114–129 111–132 110–134 106–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 115 45% 106–122 104–124 102–126 99–130
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 114 38% 105–122 103–124 102–126 98–129
Partido Socialista 108 106 7% 98–114 96–116 94–118 90–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 88 0% 81–97 79–98 77–100 75–104

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.3% 99.4%  
108 0.5% 99.1%  
109 0.7% 98.7%  
110 2% 98%  
111 1.5% 96%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 4% 90%  
115 3% 86%  
116 3% 83% Majority
117 3% 80%  
118 3% 77%  
119 4% 74%  
120 6% 70% Median
121 6% 64%  
122 10% 57%  
123 6% 48%  
124 6% 42%  
125 6% 36%  
126 6% 30%  
127 4% 23%  
128 6% 19%  
129 3% 13%  
130 2% 10%  
131 0.9% 8%  
132 2% 7%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.2% 3%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.1%  
137 0.3% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.5%  
100 0.5% 99.2%  
101 0.8% 98.7%  
102 1.1% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 2% 91%  
107 4% 89%  
108 5% 85%  
109 2% 80%  
110 3% 77%  
111 4% 75%  
112 4% 71%  
113 9% 67% Median
114 7% 58%  
115 6% 50%  
116 9% 45% Majority
117 4% 35%  
118 4% 31%  
119 6% 27%  
120 4% 21%  
121 6% 17%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 8%  
124 1.3% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.9% 3%  
127 0.8% 2% Last Result
128 0.5% 1.5%  
129 0.3% 1.0%  
130 0.4% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 99.0%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 94%  
105 3% 92%  
106 2% 89%  
107 3% 87%  
108 5% 84%  
109 3% 80%  
110 3% 77%  
111 3% 73%  
112 7% 70%  
113 7% 62% Median
114 7% 55%  
115 10% 48%  
116 7% 38% Majority
117 4% 31%  
118 4% 27%  
119 4% 23%  
120 5% 19% Last Result
121 3% 14%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 8%  
124 1.4% 6%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 0.9% 2%  
128 0.8% 1.3%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.5%  
92 0.4% 99.2%  
93 0.9% 98.8%  
94 1.0% 98%  
95 1.4% 97%  
96 2% 95%  
97 1.5% 94%  
98 4% 92%  
99 5% 88%  
100 3% 83%  
101 3% 80%  
102 2% 77%  
103 4% 75%  
104 6% 71%  
105 4% 65%  
106 12% 60% Median
107 10% 49%  
108 5% 39% Last Result
109 7% 35%  
110 5% 27%  
111 3% 23%  
112 4% 19%  
113 3% 16%  
114 5% 13%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 7% Majority
117 1.4% 5%  
118 1.0% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 99.0%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 3% 93%  
81 3% 91%  
82 5% 88%  
83 4% 83%  
84 3% 79% Last Result
85 7% 76%  
86 7% 69%  
87 7% 62%  
88 7% 54% Median
89 9% 47%  
90 4% 38%  
91 5% 34%  
92 3% 28%  
93 5% 25%  
94 3% 21%  
95 3% 18%  
96 3% 15%  
97 4% 12%  
98 3% 8%  
99 1.3% 5%  
100 0.9% 3%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.5% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.1%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.1% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations