Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 7–12 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.0% 34.5–39.5% 33.9–40.2% 33.3–40.8% 32.1–42.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 31.7% 29.4–34.1% 28.7–34.8% 28.2–35.4% 27.1–36.6%
Chega 1.3% 6.2% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.4% 4.1–9.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.9–8.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.9–8.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 2.0–4.7% 1.7–5.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.1% 0.3–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 104 93–110 91–112 89–113 87–119
Partido Social Democrata 79 86 80–95 78–97 77–99 73–103
Chega 1 10 7–11 6–13 5–14 4–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 6–14 6–15 5–15 5–18
Iniciativa Liberal 1 10 6–12 6–14 6–14 5–15
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 4–10 3–11 2–12 2–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 1–5 1–6 1–8
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.7% 99.1%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 1.1% 96%  
92 2% 95%  
93 3% 93%  
94 3% 89%  
95 4% 87%  
96 3% 83%  
97 2% 80%  
98 3% 78%  
99 4% 75%  
100 2% 71%  
101 3% 69%  
102 2% 66%  
103 4% 64%  
104 10% 60% Median
105 9% 50%  
106 5% 41%  
107 7% 35%  
108 11% 28% Last Result
109 4% 17%  
110 4% 13%  
111 4% 9%  
112 1.4% 5%  
113 1.4% 4%  
114 0.4% 2%  
115 0.4% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.5% Majority
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.2% 0.8%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.3%  
75 0.5% 99.0%  
76 0.7% 98.5%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94% Last Result
80 3% 90%  
81 3% 87%  
82 5% 84%  
83 4% 79%  
84 7% 75%  
85 11% 68%  
86 7% 56% Median
87 5% 49%  
88 6% 44%  
89 6% 38%  
90 6% 32%  
91 4% 26%  
92 4% 22%  
93 4% 18%  
94 2% 14%  
95 3% 12%  
96 2% 9%  
97 2% 6%  
98 1.2% 5%  
99 1.0% 3%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.8% 1.5%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 2% 98%  
6 2% 96%  
7 5% 95%  
8 18% 89%  
9 9% 71%  
10 18% 62% Median
11 35% 44%  
12 2% 9%  
13 3% 7%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.4% 1.0%  
16 0.2% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 8% 97%  
7 9% 89%  
8 25% 80%  
9 20% 56% Median
10 7% 35%  
11 3% 29%  
12 3% 26% Last Result
13 4% 23%  
14 10% 19%  
15 7% 9%  
16 0.6% 2%  
17 1.1% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 0.9% 99.7%  
6 19% 98.8%  
7 10% 79%  
8 5% 70%  
9 11% 65%  
10 15% 54% Median
11 10% 38%  
12 20% 29%  
13 3% 8%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 7% 97%  
4 6% 91%  
5 6% 85%  
6 3% 78%  
7 55% 76% Median
8 3% 21%  
9 7% 18%  
10 4% 11%  
11 3% 7%  
12 1.3% 4%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0.7% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 6% 99.8%  
2 41% 94%  
3 19% 53% Median
4 27% 34% Last Result
5 3% 7%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.9%  
8 0.3% 0.7%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 120 76% 111–127 108–129 107–131 103–135
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 113 35% 104–120 101–123 100–124 96–128
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 112 16% 100–117 98–118 97–120 94–126
Partido Socialista 108 104 1.5% 93–110 91–112 89–113 87–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 86 0% 80–95 78–97 77–100 73–103

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.4% 99.3%  
105 0.5% 98.9%  
106 0.8% 98%  
107 1.3% 98%  
108 2% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 3% 91%  
112 4% 88%  
113 2% 84%  
114 4% 82%  
115 2% 78%  
116 4% 76% Majority
117 4% 72%  
118 3% 68%  
119 6% 65%  
120 10% 58% Median
121 6% 48%  
122 7% 42%  
123 6% 35%  
124 11% 29%  
125 3% 18%  
126 4% 15%  
127 4% 11%  
128 1.3% 7%  
129 2% 6%  
130 1.0% 4%  
131 1.2% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.5%  
134 0.5% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1% Last Result
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.5%  
97 0.2% 99.2%  
98 0.6% 99.0%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 1.1% 98%  
101 1.4% 96%  
102 1.3% 95%  
103 3% 94%  
104 2% 91%  
105 2% 89%  
106 2% 86%  
107 5% 84%  
108 3% 79%  
109 4% 76%  
110 3% 73%  
111 5% 70%  
112 7% 64%  
113 11% 57% Median
114 7% 47%  
115 5% 40%  
116 6% 35% Majority
117 10% 29%  
118 3% 19%  
119 4% 15%  
120 4% 12% Last Result
121 2% 8%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.1% 5%  
124 2% 4%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.0%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.9% 99.3%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 3% 93%  
100 3% 90%  
101 3% 88%  
102 5% 85%  
103 2% 80%  
104 2% 78%  
105 2% 77%  
106 3% 75%  
107 2% 72%  
108 3% 70%  
109 2% 67%  
110 4% 65%  
111 9% 61% Median
112 9% 52%  
113 9% 43%  
114 8% 34%  
115 11% 27%  
116 5% 16% Majority
117 5% 11%  
118 2% 6%  
119 1.2% 4%  
120 0.6% 3%  
121 0.4% 2%  
122 0.3% 2%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.3%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.4% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.7% 99.1%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 1.1% 96%  
92 2% 95%  
93 3% 93%  
94 3% 89%  
95 4% 87%  
96 3% 83%  
97 2% 80%  
98 3% 78%  
99 4% 75%  
100 2% 71%  
101 3% 69%  
102 2% 66%  
103 4% 64%  
104 10% 60% Median
105 9% 50%  
106 5% 41%  
107 7% 35%  
108 11% 28% Last Result
109 4% 17%  
110 4% 13%  
111 4% 9%  
112 1.4% 5%  
113 1.4% 4%  
114 0.4% 2%  
115 0.4% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.5% Majority
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.2% 0.8%  
119 0.3% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.4%  
75 0.5% 99.0%  
76 0.7% 98.6%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 3% 90%  
81 3% 87%  
82 5% 85%  
83 4% 79%  
84 7% 75% Last Result
85 11% 68%  
86 7% 57% Median
87 5% 50%  
88 6% 45%  
89 6% 39%  
90 6% 32%  
91 4% 27%  
92 4% 22%  
93 4% 18%  
94 2% 14%  
95 3% 12%  
96 2% 9%  
97 2% 6%  
98 1.2% 5%  
99 0.9% 4%  
100 0.6% 3%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.8% 1.5%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations