Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 9–13 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.4% 32.6–38.4% 31.8–39.2% 31.1–40.0% 29.8–41.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 33.2% 30.4–36.1% 29.6–37.0% 29.0–37.7% 27.7–39.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.4% 6.0–9.2% 5.6–9.8% 5.3–10.2% 4.7–11.2%
Chega 1.3% 6.3% 5.0–8.0% 4.7–8.5% 4.4–8.9% 3.8–9.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.2% 3.5–7.6% 3.0–8.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.8% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.7% 2.4–6.0% 2.0–6.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1% 1.4–4.4% 1.1–5.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.6% 0.6–2.9% 0.5–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 96 88–107 86–109 84–112 81–116
Partido Social Democrata 79 93 83–102 80–104 78–105 75–108
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 9–18 7–19 7–20 7–22
Chega 1 11 7–13 6–14 4–15 4–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–12 5–14 5–15 3–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 3–7 3–9 3–10 3–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–4 0–4 0–5 0–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 2% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 3% 90%  
89 2% 87%  
90 3% 85%  
91 3% 82%  
92 4% 79%  
93 8% 75%  
94 8% 67%  
95 4% 59%  
96 5% 55% Median
97 7% 50%  
98 3% 43%  
99 5% 40%  
100 4% 35%  
101 2% 31%  
102 5% 28%  
103 3% 24%  
104 2% 21%  
105 4% 19%  
106 3% 15%  
107 5% 12%  
108 1.3% 7% Last Result
109 1.1% 6%  
110 0.7% 4%  
111 0.8% 4%  
112 1.2% 3%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.2%  
115 0.2% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.8% 98.9%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 1.3% 97% Last Result
80 2% 96%  
81 1.2% 95%  
82 1.5% 93%  
83 2% 92%  
84 3% 90%  
85 4% 87%  
86 3% 83%  
87 3% 80%  
88 6% 77%  
89 4% 71%  
90 4% 67%  
91 4% 63%  
92 6% 59%  
93 5% 54% Median
94 6% 48%  
95 6% 42%  
96 5% 36%  
97 4% 31%  
98 5% 26%  
99 4% 21%  
100 3% 16%  
101 3% 13%  
102 3% 10%  
103 2% 8%  
104 2% 6%  
105 1.4% 4%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 6% 99.8%  
8 2% 94%  
9 5% 91%  
10 5% 86%  
11 6% 81%  
12 14% 75%  
13 9% 61%  
14 10% 52% Median
15 14% 43%  
16 11% 29%  
17 5% 17%  
18 7% 13%  
19 3% 6% Last Result
20 1.0% 3%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.9% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 3% 99.6%  
5 2% 97%  
6 3% 95%  
7 4% 92%  
8 16% 88%  
9 14% 72%  
10 8% 58%  
11 33% 50% Median
12 5% 17%  
13 5% 12%  
14 4% 7%  
15 1.1% 3%  
16 0.7% 2%  
17 0.5% 1.4%  
18 0.5% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.6%  
4 1.1% 99.0%  
5 19% 98%  
6 9% 79%  
7 21% 70% Median
8 17% 49%  
9 9% 32%  
10 6% 23%  
11 4% 17%  
12 3% 13% Last Result
13 4% 10%  
14 2% 6%  
15 2% 4%  
16 0.8% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 99.7%  
3 14% 99.6%  
4 26% 85%  
5 16% 59% Median
6 32% 44%  
7 3% 12%  
8 3% 9%  
9 3% 6%  
10 1.2% 3%  
11 0.6% 2%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 19% 95%  
2 43% 75% Median
3 10% 33%  
4 19% 22% Last Result
5 1.2% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 21% 24%  
2 2% 3%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 118 64% 109–128 107–131 105–134 102–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 110 28% 101–120 99–123 97–125 93–129
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 104 8% 95–115 94–118 92–120 89–124
Partido Socialista 108 96 0.6% 88–107 86–109 84–112 81–116
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 93 0% 84–102 81–104 79–106 76–109

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 1.2% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 2% 92%  
110 3% 90%  
111 4% 87%  
112 4% 83%  
113 4% 79%  
114 6% 74%  
115 4% 68%  
116 7% 64% Majority
117 3% 57% Median
118 6% 54%  
119 6% 48%  
120 3% 42%  
121 4% 39%  
122 3% 35%  
123 4% 32%  
124 4% 27%  
125 4% 23%  
126 5% 19%  
127 3% 14%  
128 2% 11%  
129 1.4% 9%  
130 1.3% 8%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.0% 4%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.7% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.2%  
137 0.4% 0.9%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.3% 99.3%  
95 0.5% 99.1%  
96 0.9% 98.5%  
97 0.7% 98%  
98 1.2% 97%  
99 1.4% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 2% 92%  
102 3% 89%  
103 3% 87%  
104 4% 83%  
105 4% 80%  
106 4% 75%  
107 4% 71%  
108 4% 67%  
109 12% 63%  
110 4% 51% Median
111 6% 47%  
112 3% 41%  
113 4% 38%  
114 3% 34%  
115 3% 31%  
116 6% 28% Majority
117 4% 22%  
118 3% 18%  
119 5% 15%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 9%  
122 1.2% 7%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 0.6% 3%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.3% 2% Last Result
128 0.4% 1.2%  
129 0.4% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.5%  
90 0.5% 99.3%  
91 0.9% 98.8%  
92 1.4% 98%  
93 1.4% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 2% 90%  
97 4% 87%  
98 2% 84%  
99 4% 81%  
100 5% 78%  
101 10% 73%  
102 6% 63%  
103 4% 57% Median
104 4% 53%  
105 3% 49%  
106 6% 46%  
107 4% 40%  
108 4% 36%  
109 3% 32%  
110 4% 29%  
111 3% 26%  
112 4% 22%  
113 5% 19%  
114 4% 14%  
115 2% 10%  
116 2% 8% Majority
117 0.8% 6%  
118 2% 6%  
119 0.9% 4%  
120 1.3% 3% Last Result
121 0.3% 2%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.0%  
124 0.1% 0.6%  
125 0.1% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 2% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 3% 90%  
89 2% 87%  
90 3% 85%  
91 3% 82%  
92 4% 79%  
93 8% 75%  
94 8% 67%  
95 4% 59%  
96 5% 55% Median
97 7% 50%  
98 3% 43%  
99 5% 40%  
100 4% 35%  
101 2% 31%  
102 5% 28%  
103 3% 24%  
104 2% 21%  
105 4% 19%  
106 3% 15%  
107 5% 12%  
108 1.3% 7% Last Result
109 1.1% 6%  
110 0.7% 4%  
111 0.8% 4%  
112 1.2% 3%  
113 0.5% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.2%  
115 0.2% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 1.1% 98%  
80 1.3% 97%  
81 2% 95%  
82 1.2% 94%  
83 2% 93%  
84 3% 91% Last Result
85 3% 88%  
86 4% 84%  
87 3% 81%  
88 6% 78%  
89 4% 72%  
90 4% 68%  
91 3% 64%  
92 5% 60%  
93 6% 55% Median
94 7% 50%  
95 6% 43%  
96 5% 37%  
97 4% 32%  
98 6% 28%  
99 4% 22%  
100 3% 17%  
101 2% 14%  
102 3% 12%  
103 2% 9%  
104 2% 6%  
105 1.3% 4%  
106 1.0% 3%  
107 0.5% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.2%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations