Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 10–20 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 35.9–40.1% 35.3–40.7% 34.8–41.2% 33.9–42.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 31.0% 29.0–33.0% 28.5–33.6% 28.0–34.1% 27.1–35.1%
Chega 1.3% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.1–9.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5% 4.6–7.7% 4.2–8.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 100–113 98–116 96–117 94–119
Partido Social Democrata 79 86 80–92 78–94 76–97 74–99
Chega 1 11 10–14 9–14 8–15 8–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 8–14 7–15 6–15 5–17
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–9 4–11 3–11 2–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 4–6 3–7 3–8 3–10
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.7% 99.2%  
96 2% 98.5%  
97 1.1% 96%  
98 2% 95%  
99 2% 93%  
100 2% 91%  
101 2% 89%  
102 3% 88%  
103 5% 84%  
104 5% 80%  
105 8% 75%  
106 9% 67%  
107 6% 58%  
108 8% 52% Last Result, Median
109 7% 44%  
110 8% 37%  
111 8% 29%  
112 8% 21%  
113 4% 13%  
114 2% 10%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 1.5% 4%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.3%  
76 1.5% 98.6%  
77 1.2% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 2% 93% Last Result
80 4% 91%  
81 5% 87%  
82 6% 82%  
83 10% 76%  
84 8% 66%  
85 6% 58%  
86 11% 52% Median
87 7% 41%  
88 4% 33%  
89 12% 29%  
90 3% 16%  
91 3% 14%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.0% 6%  
95 0.9% 5%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 4% 99.6%  
9 2% 96%  
10 11% 94%  
11 52% 83% Median
12 9% 31%  
13 8% 22%  
14 10% 14%  
15 1.3% 3%  
16 0.5% 2%  
17 0.5% 1.3%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 3% 99.0%  
7 6% 97%  
8 20% 91%  
9 34% 71% Median
10 8% 36%  
11 3% 28%  
12 4% 25% Last Result
13 4% 21%  
14 8% 18%  
15 8% 10%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 2% 99.4%  
4 6% 97%  
5 4% 91%  
6 4% 87%  
7 63% 83% Median
8 6% 20%  
9 6% 13%  
10 1.3% 7%  
11 4% 6%  
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 20% 95%  
5 26% 75% Median
6 43% 50%  
7 3% 6%  
8 1.2% 4%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.8% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Median
1 33% 47%  
2 13% 14%  
3 0.7% 0.9%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 39% 91%  
2 49% 53% Median
3 3% 4%  
4 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 124 96% 118–131 116–133 114–134 111–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 117 64% 111–124 108–126 106–127 103–130
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 115 45% 107–120 105–122 103–124 100–127
Partido Socialista 108 108 6% 100–113 98–116 96–117 94–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 86 0% 80–92 78–95 77–97 75–100

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.6% 99.3%  
113 1.0% 98.6%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 0.9% 97%  
116 2% 96% Majority
117 2% 94%  
118 3% 92%  
119 5% 89%  
120 4% 83%  
121 5% 80%  
122 7% 74%  
123 6% 68%  
124 12% 62% Median
125 7% 49%  
126 10% 42%  
127 6% 32%  
128 5% 26%  
129 7% 21%  
130 4% 14%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.3% 4%  
135 1.0% 2%  
136 0.7% 1.3%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.1%  
106 1.5% 98.8%  
107 2% 97%  
108 0.8% 96%  
109 1.0% 95%  
110 1.5% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 90%  
113 5% 84%  
114 5% 79%  
115 10% 74%  
116 7% 64% Majority
117 9% 57% Median
118 5% 48%  
119 9% 43%  
120 8% 34% Last Result
121 6% 26%  
122 5% 20%  
123 4% 15%  
124 2% 11%  
125 3% 9%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.5% 4%  
128 1.1% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.3%  
130 0.3% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.4%  
102 0.6% 99.1%  
103 1.5% 98%  
104 1.4% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 93%  
107 2% 91%  
108 2% 90%  
109 4% 88%  
110 4% 83%  
111 4% 79%  
112 6% 75%  
113 6% 68%  
114 6% 62%  
115 11% 56% Median
116 8% 45% Majority
117 9% 37%  
118 8% 28%  
119 6% 21%  
120 6% 15%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.1% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 1.0% 2%  
126 0.9% 1.4%  
127 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.7% 99.2%  
96 2% 98.5%  
97 1.1% 96%  
98 2% 95%  
99 2% 93%  
100 2% 91%  
101 2% 89%  
102 3% 88%  
103 5% 84%  
104 5% 80%  
105 8% 75%  
106 9% 67%  
107 6% 58%  
108 8% 52% Last Result, Median
109 7% 44%  
110 8% 37%  
111 8% 29%  
112 8% 21%  
113 4% 13%  
114 2% 10%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 1.5% 4%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 98.8%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 2% 94%  
80 3% 92%  
81 4% 89%  
82 6% 85%  
83 8% 79%  
84 7% 71% Last Result
85 8% 64%  
86 7% 56% Median
87 12% 49%  
88 4% 37%  
89 11% 33%  
90 7% 22%  
91 3% 16%  
92 3% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 1.4% 7%  
95 1.4% 5%  
96 0.6% 4%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.3%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations