Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 30 December 2021–9 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.7% 37.1–42.3% 36.4–43.0% 35.8–43.7% 34.6–44.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 30.0% 27.7–32.5% 27.0–33.2% 26.5–33.8% 25.4–35.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.2–9.3%
Chega 1.3% 5.7% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9% 3.7–7.3% 3.2–8.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9% 3.7–7.3% 3.2–8.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 111 103–119 101–120 98–122 95–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 82 75–88 72–91 71–95 67–98
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 7–15 7–15 7–16 5–18
Chega 1 8 5–11 4–11 4–13 3–14
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–12 5–13 5–14 4–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 7 6–12 5–12 4–12 4–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 99.5%  
96 0.3% 99.0%  
97 0.7% 98.7%  
98 0.5% 98%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 1.4% 96%  
101 2% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 2% 92%  
104 2% 90%  
105 3% 88%  
106 5% 85%  
107 8% 80%  
108 6% 73% Last Result
109 7% 66%  
110 5% 59%  
111 4% 54% Median
112 8% 49%  
113 6% 42%  
114 7% 36%  
115 4% 29%  
116 6% 25% Majority
117 2% 19%  
118 5% 17%  
119 4% 12%  
120 3% 8%  
121 1.4% 5%  
122 1.3% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.6% 1.4%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.1% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 0.4% 99.1%  
70 0.7% 98.7%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 1.3% 95%  
74 3% 94%  
75 5% 91%  
76 8% 86%  
77 5% 78%  
78 5% 73%  
79 4% 68% Last Result
80 6% 64%  
81 5% 58%  
82 8% 52% Median
83 9% 44%  
84 5% 35%  
85 7% 30%  
86 5% 23%  
87 6% 18%  
88 3% 12%  
89 2% 9%  
90 1.4% 8%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.1% 5%  
93 0.4% 4%  
94 0.4% 3%  
95 0.8% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 0.6% 99.5%  
6 0.7% 98.9%  
7 24% 98%  
8 7% 74%  
9 9% 67%  
10 7% 57%  
11 15% 50% Median
12 8% 36%  
13 9% 27%  
14 8% 18%  
15 6% 10%  
16 2% 5%  
17 0.7% 2%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 7% 98.7%  
5 3% 91%  
6 6% 89%  
7 9% 82%  
8 24% 74% Median
9 10% 50%  
10 13% 40%  
11 24% 28%  
12 0.7% 4%  
13 2% 3%  
14 1.1% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.8%  
4 0.9% 99.5%  
5 11% 98.7%  
6 17% 87%  
7 18% 71%  
8 20% 53% Median
9 15% 32%  
10 6% 18%  
11 1.3% 12%  
12 3% 10% Last Result
13 4% 8%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 3% 99.8%  
5 6% 96%  
6 38% 91%  
7 11% 53% Median
8 7% 42%  
9 11% 35%  
10 9% 24%  
11 4% 15%  
12 9% 11%  
13 0.6% 2%  
14 1.2% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 41% 80% Median
2 34% 39%  
3 3% 5%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 28% 30%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 129 98% 122–138 119–139 117–141 112–144
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 121 85% 114–130 111–131 109–133 105–136
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 119 72% 111–127 108–128 106–130 102–134
Partido Socialista 108 111 25% 103–119 101–120 98–122 95–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 82 0% 75–89 73–92 71–95 68–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.6%  
113 0.5% 99.4%  
114 0.3% 98.8%  
115 0.3% 98.5%  
116 0.4% 98% Majority
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.2% 97%  
119 1.3% 96%  
120 1.3% 95%  
121 2% 93%  
122 3% 91%  
123 3% 88%  
124 3% 85%  
125 6% 81%  
126 9% 76%  
127 4% 67%  
128 6% 63%  
129 7% 56%  
130 6% 49% Median
131 6% 44%  
132 3% 38%  
133 6% 34%  
134 7% 29%  
135 4% 21%  
136 4% 17%  
137 4% 14%  
138 3% 10%  
139 2% 7% Last Result
140 2% 5%  
141 1.0% 3%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.6% 1.3%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0.2% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.7% 98.9%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.2% 97%  
111 1.0% 96%  
112 2% 95%  
113 2% 93%  
114 4% 91%  
115 2% 87%  
116 4% 85% Majority
117 5% 81%  
118 6% 75%  
119 7% 69%  
120 8% 63%  
121 6% 55%  
122 6% 49% Median
123 5% 43%  
124 4% 38%  
125 5% 34%  
126 4% 28%  
127 6% 24% Last Result
128 3% 19%  
129 4% 16%  
130 5% 12%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.5% 5%  
133 2% 3%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.3% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.6% 99.3%  
104 0.4% 98.7%  
105 0.4% 98%  
106 0.6% 98%  
107 0.8% 97%  
108 2% 97%  
109 0.7% 95%  
110 2% 94%  
111 2% 92%  
112 2% 90%  
113 4% 88%  
114 6% 84%  
115 7% 78%  
116 6% 72% Majority
117 5% 66%  
118 6% 61%  
119 7% 55% Median
120 6% 48% Last Result
121 5% 42%  
122 7% 37%  
123 5% 30%  
124 4% 25%  
125 6% 20%  
126 5% 15%  
127 3% 10%  
128 2% 7%  
129 2% 5%  
130 1.0% 3%  
131 0.6% 2%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.0%  
134 0.2% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 99.5%  
96 0.3% 99.0%  
97 0.7% 98.7%  
98 0.5% 98%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 1.4% 96%  
101 2% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 2% 92%  
104 2% 90%  
105 3% 88%  
106 5% 85%  
107 8% 80%  
108 6% 73% Last Result
109 7% 66%  
110 5% 59%  
111 4% 54% Median
112 8% 49%  
113 6% 42%  
114 7% 36%  
115 4% 29%  
116 6% 25% Majority
117 2% 19%  
118 5% 17%  
119 4% 12%  
120 3% 8%  
121 1.4% 5%  
122 1.3% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.6% 1.4%  
125 0.2% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.6%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.6%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.3%  
70 0.4% 98.8%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 1.4% 97%  
73 1.5% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 4% 92%  
76 7% 87%  
77 5% 81%  
78 6% 75%  
79 5% 70%  
80 5% 65%  
81 5% 60%  
82 7% 54% Median
83 9% 47%  
84 6% 38% Last Result
85 7% 32%  
86 5% 25%  
87 7% 20%  
88 3% 13%  
89 1.5% 10%  
90 2% 9%  
91 1.4% 7%  
92 0.9% 5%  
93 0.9% 4%  
94 0.3% 3%  
95 0.6% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.4%  
98 0.3% 0.9%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations