Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 6–12 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 35.9–40.3% 35.3–40.9% 34.8–41.5% 33.7–42.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.5% 26.5–30.6% 26.0–31.2% 25.5–31.7% 24.6–32.7%
Chega 1.3% 9.0% 7.9–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.3–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.4% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.1% 5.8–9.5% 5.3–10.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.7–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.2–7.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 101–115 99–116 97–118 93–120
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 71–84 69–86 68–88 66–92
Chega 1 16 13–21 11–22 11–23 11–26
Bloco de Esquerda 19 13 11–16 9–18 7–18 7–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 5–10 5–10 5–12 3–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 3–6 3–6 3–7 3–9
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 0.3% 99.3%  
95 0.4% 98.9%  
96 0.6% 98.6%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 1.4% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 2% 93%  
101 3% 91%  
102 3% 88%  
103 5% 86%  
104 5% 81%  
105 7% 76%  
106 10% 70%  
107 6% 60%  
108 8% 53% Last Result, Median
109 5% 46%  
110 8% 40%  
111 6% 33%  
112 7% 26%  
113 5% 20%  
114 4% 15%  
115 4% 11%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 1.4% 4%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.5% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.5%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 0.5% 99.0%  
68 2% 98.6%  
69 2% 96%  
70 1.4% 94%  
71 4% 93%  
72 3% 89%  
73 3% 86%  
74 3% 83%  
75 5% 79%  
76 17% 74%  
77 12% 57% Median
78 6% 45%  
79 8% 39% Last Result
80 7% 31%  
81 6% 24%  
82 6% 18%  
83 2% 12%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.4% 5%  
87 0.8% 4%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.1%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 3% 94%  
13 7% 92%  
14 22% 85%  
15 10% 63%  
16 9% 53% Median
17 8% 44%  
18 12% 36%  
19 10% 24%  
20 3% 14%  
21 4% 12%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 4%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.5% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 2% 97%  
9 1.1% 95%  
10 3% 94%  
11 18% 91%  
12 11% 73%  
13 12% 62% Median
14 17% 50%  
15 9% 33%  
16 15% 24%  
17 3% 9%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.6%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.9%  
4 1.2% 99.4%  
5 23% 98%  
6 30% 75% Median
7 20% 46%  
8 8% 26%  
9 7% 18%  
10 6% 10%  
11 2% 4%  
12 1.2% 3% Last Result
13 1.0% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 14% 99.9%  
4 26% 86%  
5 34% 60% Median
6 24% 27%  
7 1.1% 3%  
8 0.6% 2%  
9 0.7% 1.0%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 33% 94%  
2 53% 61% Median
3 5% 8%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 42% 49%  
2 7% 7%  
3 0.3% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 128 98% 122–135 120–136 117–138 113–141
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 121 87% 114–128 112–130 110–131 106–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 45% 108–121 106–123 104–125 99–128
Partido Socialista 108 108 6% 101–115 99–116 97–118 93–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 78 0% 72–84 70–86 68–89 66–93

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.6% 99.0%  
116 0.7% 98% Majority
117 0.8% 98%  
118 0.9% 97%  
119 1.0% 96%  
120 2% 95%  
121 3% 93%  
122 3% 90%  
123 4% 87%  
124 5% 83%  
125 9% 79%  
126 8% 70%  
127 6% 62% Median
128 6% 55%  
129 8% 49%  
130 9% 41%  
131 6% 32%  
132 7% 26%  
133 5% 19%  
134 4% 14%  
135 3% 10%  
136 3% 8%  
137 2% 4%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.8% 2% Last Result
140 0.3% 1.0%  
141 0.3% 0.7%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.4% 99.5%  
108 0.6% 99.1%  
109 0.6% 98%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 1.2% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 90%  
116 3% 87% Majority
117 6% 85%  
118 5% 78%  
119 6% 73%  
120 9% 67%  
121 8% 58% Median
122 7% 50%  
123 7% 43%  
124 10% 36%  
125 7% 26%  
126 6% 19%  
127 3% 14% Last Result
128 3% 10%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.4% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.1%  
134 0.4% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.1%  
102 0.4% 98.8%  
103 0.5% 98%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 2% 96%  
107 1.5% 94%  
108 3% 92%  
109 3% 90%  
110 5% 86%  
111 8% 81%  
112 8% 74%  
113 7% 66%  
114 8% 59% Median
115 7% 51%  
116 7% 45% Majority
117 8% 38%  
118 8% 29%  
119 3% 22%  
120 4% 19% Last Result
121 5% 15%  
122 4% 10%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.3% 4%  
125 1.5% 3%  
126 0.5% 1.4%  
127 0.4% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 0.3% 99.3%  
95 0.4% 98.9%  
96 0.6% 98.6%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 1.4% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 2% 93%  
101 3% 91%  
102 3% 88%  
103 5% 86%  
104 5% 81%  
105 7% 76%  
106 10% 70%  
107 6% 60%  
108 8% 53% Last Result, Median
109 5% 46%  
110 8% 40%  
111 6% 33%  
112 7% 26%  
113 5% 20%  
114 4% 15%  
115 4% 11%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 1.4% 4%  
118 2% 3%  
119 0.5% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.5%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.4% 99.3%  
68 2% 98.9%  
69 1.5% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 2% 94%  
72 4% 92%  
73 2% 88%  
74 4% 85%  
75 4% 81%  
76 15% 77%  
77 9% 62% Median
78 9% 53%  
79 8% 44%  
80 9% 36%  
81 6% 28%  
82 8% 22%  
83 3% 14%  
84 3% 11% Last Result
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.1% 5%  
88 0.9% 4%  
89 0.8% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.3%  
92 0.5% 1.1%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations