Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 23–28 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.1% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.5–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 43 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–50
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 23 20–25 19–25 19–26 18–28
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 20 17–21 16–22 16–23 15–25
SME RODINA 11 15 14–17 13–18 12–18 12–20
Slovenská národná strana 15 14 12–16 12–17 12–18 11–19
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 14 11–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 10–15 10–16 9–16
MOST–HÍD 11 11 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 4% 97%  
40 5% 93%  
41 8% 88%  
42 29% 80%  
43 13% 50% Median
44 10% 37%  
45 11% 27%  
46 8% 16%  
47 5% 8%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.9% 2% Last Result
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.7%  
19 4% 98.7%  
20 7% 95%  
21 15% 87% Last Result
22 12% 72%  
23 39% 60% Median
24 12% 22%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 4%  
27 0.5% 1.1%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 5% 98%  
17 6% 93% Last Result
18 20% 88%  
19 16% 67%  
20 34% 52% Median
21 9% 17%  
22 6% 9%  
23 1.4% 3%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
12 3% 99.6%  
13 6% 97%  
14 12% 91%  
15 43% 78% Median
16 21% 35%  
17 8% 14%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 8% 98%  
13 38% 90%  
14 21% 52% Median
15 13% 31% Last Result
16 8% 18%  
17 6% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9%  
11 10% 99.0%  
12 10% 89%  
13 12% 79%  
14 36% 67% Last Result, Median
15 16% 31%  
16 10% 15%  
17 3% 5%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 10% 98.9%  
11 11% 89%  
12 37% 79% Median
13 22% 42%  
14 11% 20%  
15 6% 9%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 1.4% 87%  
9 19% 86%  
10 15% 66%  
11 43% 51% Last Result, Median
12 6% 8%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 4% 6%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 89 86 100% 83–91 82–93 80–95 78–97
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 72 15% 69–77 68–78 66–79 64–83
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 66 0.1% 61–70 60–71 59–72 56–74
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 58 0% 55–62 54–63 53–64 50–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 57 0% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–50

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.3% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 1.4% 99.6%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 0.9% 98%  
81 1.2% 97%  
82 3% 95%  
83 6% 92%  
84 27% 86%  
85 8% 59%  
86 12% 50% Median
87 11% 38%  
88 5% 27%  
89 6% 22% Last Result
90 5% 17%  
91 3% 12%  
92 2% 9%  
93 3% 6%  
94 0.6% 3%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.6% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0.7% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.1%  
66 2% 98.7%  
67 1.4% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 6% 93%  
70 26% 87%  
71 5% 61%  
72 13% 56% Median
73 10% 42%  
74 7% 32%  
75 11% 26% Last Result
76 4% 15% Majority
77 3% 11%  
78 5% 8%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.5%  
57 0.3% 98.7%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 3% 89%  
63 4% 86%  
64 4% 82%  
65 6% 78%  
66 28% 72%  
67 9% 44%  
68 15% 35% Median
69 7% 20%  
70 6% 13%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.3%  
52 0.7% 98.7%  
53 3% 98%  
54 2% 95%  
55 5% 93%  
56 6% 87%  
57 29% 81%  
58 10% 52% Median
59 12% 42%  
60 9% 30% Last Result
61 8% 21%  
62 6% 13%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 3% 99.0%  
53 3% 96%  
54 7% 93%  
55 27% 87%  
56 9% 60%  
57 13% 51% Median
58 8% 39%  
59 8% 31%  
60 11% 23%  
61 6% 12%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.4% 2% Last Result
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 4% 97%  
40 5% 93%  
41 8% 88%  
42 29% 80%  
43 13% 50% Median
44 10% 37%  
45 11% 27%  
46 8% 16%  
47 5% 8%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.9% 2% Last Result
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations