MOST–HÍD
Voting Intentions
Last result: 6.5% (General Election of 5 March 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.3% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.4–6.0% | 2.1–6.5% |
| 11–13 February 2020 | AKO | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 6–12 February 2020 | FOCUS | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 3–6 February 2020 | AKO | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| 24–31 January 2020 | MVK | 2.9% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| 23–30 January 2020 | Polis | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.4–6.7% |
| 15–22 January 2020 | FOCUS | 4.4% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 15–17 January 2020 | AKO | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 10–15 January 2020 | Polis | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.5–6.8% |
| 10–14 January 2020 | FOCUS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 7–9 January 2020 | AKO TA3 |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 7–11 December 2019 | Polis | 5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.7–7.2% |
| 2–9 December 2019 | FOCUS | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 19–25 November 2019 | AKO | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 9–13 November 2019 | Polis | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 30 October–6 November 2019 | FOCUS | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–6.0% |
| 15–22 October 2019 | FOCUS | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 7–10 October 2019 | AKO | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 18–25 September 2019 | AKO | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 11–17 September 2019 | FOCUS | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 26–29 August 2019 | AKO | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| 12 August 2019 | MVK | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 1–7 August 2019 | FOCUS | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 19–25 June 2019 | FOCUS | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.4% |
| 11–18 June 2019 | Polis | 5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 1–11 June 2019 | FOCUS | 4.4% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 28–31 May 2019 | AKO | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 8–10 May 2019 | AKO | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 29 April–6 May 2019 | AKO | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 8–14 April 2019 | FOCUS | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 1–2 April 2019 | AKO | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–15 March 2019 | FOCUS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–26 February 2019 | FOCUS | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 8–12 February 2019 | AKO | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 16–23 January 2019 | FOCUS | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.2–8.0% |
| 1–9 December 2018 | FOCUS | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 27–28 November 2018 | AKO | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 13–15 November 2018 | AKO | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 7–14 November 2018 | FOCUS | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 3–8 October 2018 | AKO | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 18–25 September 2018 | FOCUS | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 30 August–5 September 2018 | AKO | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 15–17 August 2018 | AKO | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 2–9 August 2018 | FOCUS | 5.7% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.0–7.8% |
| 18–21 June 2018 | AKO | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 4–11 June 2018 | FOCUS | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 16–21 May 2018 | AKO | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 24–30 April 2018 | FOCUS | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 20–24 April 2018 | AKO | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 4–7 April 2018 | AKO | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 7–13 March 2018 | FOCUS | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.8% |
| 21–26 February 2018 | AKO | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 23–28 January 2018 | FOCUS | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for MOST–HÍD.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 21% | 96% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 34% | 75% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 40% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 11 seats (General Election of 5 March 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 11–13 February 2020 | AKO | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 6–12 February 2020 | FOCUS | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 3–6 February 2020 | AKO | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 24–31 January 2020 | MVK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23–30 January 2020 | Polis | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| 15–22 January 2020 | FOCUS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 15–17 January 2020 | AKO | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 10–15 January 2020 | Polis | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| 10–14 January 2020 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–11 |
| 7–9 January 2020 | AKO TA3 |
0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 7–11 December 2019 | Polis | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 2–9 December 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| 19–25 November 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–13 November 2019 | Polis | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 30 October–6 November 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 15–22 October 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 |
| 7–10 October 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 18–25 September 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 |
| 11–17 September 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| 26–29 August 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 August 2019 | MVK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–10 |
| 1–7 August 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 19–25 June 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 11–18 June 2019 | Polis | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| 1–11 June 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| 28–31 May 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| 8–10 May 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 29 April–6 May 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 8–14 April 2019 | FOCUS | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 |
| 1–2 April 2019 | AKO | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| 1–15 March 2019 | FOCUS | |||||
| 21–26 February 2019 | FOCUS | 9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| 8–12 February 2019 | AKO | 9 | 8–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 16–23 January 2019 | FOCUS | 10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 1–9 December 2018 | FOCUS | 9 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 27–28 November 2018 | AKO | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 |
| 13–15 November 2018 | AKO | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 0–13 | 0–13 |
| 7–14 November 2018 | FOCUS | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 3–8 October 2018 | AKO | 10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 |
| 18–25 September 2018 | FOCUS | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 30 August–5 September 2018 | AKO | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 0–14 |
| 15–17 August 2018 | AKO | 9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 |
| 2–9 August 2018 | FOCUS | 10 | 9–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 18–21 June 2018 | AKO | 10 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 0–14 |
| 4–11 June 2018 | FOCUS | 10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 16–21 May 2018 | AKO | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 24–30 April 2018 | FOCUS | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| 20–24 April 2018 | AKO | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| 4–7 April 2018 | AKO | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 7–13 March 2018 | FOCUS | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| 21–26 February 2018 | AKO | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 0–14 |
| 23–28 January 2018 | FOCUS | 11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for MOST–HÍD.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0% | 13% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 9 | 3% | 12% | |
| 10 | 8% | 10% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |