Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 7–13 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.3% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.8%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 31–38 30–38 30–39 29–41
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 25 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–30
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 18 16–21 15–21 15–21 14–22
SME RODINA 11 18 15–20 15–21 15–21 14–22
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 14–19 14–20 14–21 13–23
Slovenská národná strana 15 17 14–19 14–20 14–21 14–22
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 13 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0–9 0–10
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.9%  
30 6% 98.5%  
31 5% 93%  
32 3% 88%  
33 15% 85%  
34 24% 70% Median
35 10% 46%  
36 6% 36%  
37 18% 30%  
38 7% 12%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 5% 98% Last Result
22 15% 93%  
23 16% 78%  
24 7% 62%  
25 26% 55% Median
26 22% 29%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.4%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 6% 98%  
16 11% 92%  
17 25% 81% Last Result
18 25% 56% Median
19 11% 32%  
20 10% 21%  
21 9% 10%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.8%  
15 12% 98%  
16 6% 86%  
17 16% 80%  
18 18% 65% Median
19 7% 47%  
20 34% 40%  
21 4% 6%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 12% 99.1% Last Result
15 6% 87%  
16 17% 81%  
17 13% 64%  
18 16% 51% Median
19 28% 35%  
20 4% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 1.1%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 10% 99.6%  
15 10% 89% Last Result
16 10% 80%  
17 41% 70% Median
18 14% 29%  
19 8% 14%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 5% 98%  
11 8% 92%  
12 19% 85%  
13 44% 66% Median
14 18% 22%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 0% 75%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 0% 75%  
8 0.4% 75%  
9 31% 75% Median
10 10% 44%  
11 28% 34% Last Result
12 4% 6%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 0% 5%  
8 2% 5%  
9 2% 3%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana 89 87 100% 82–93 81–93 80–95 79–98
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 70 4% 65–74 65–75 64–76 61–78
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 60 0% 54–63 54–65 53–66 50–68
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 53 0% 49–57 47–58 47–58 45–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 51 0% 48–55 46–56 45–57 45–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 0% 31–38 30–38 30–39 29–41

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 2% 99.5%  
80 0.6% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 5% 95%  
83 9% 90%  
84 17% 81%  
85 4% 64%  
86 8% 59%  
87 13% 52% Median
88 4% 38%  
89 6% 34% Last Result
90 5% 28%  
91 0.8% 24%  
92 4% 23%  
93 16% 20%  
94 0.8% 4%  
95 1.4% 3%  
96 0.6% 1.5%  
97 0.1% 0.9%  
98 0.7% 0.8%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 98.8%  
63 0.6% 98.6%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 10% 97%  
66 5% 87%  
67 10% 82%  
68 9% 72%  
69 11% 64% Median
70 15% 52%  
71 4% 38%  
72 6% 34%  
73 6% 28%  
74 17% 22%  
75 1.2% 5% Last Result
76 1.4% 4% Majority
77 1.0% 2%  
78 1.1% 1.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.4%  
52 0.6% 98.9%  
53 3% 98%  
54 18% 96%  
55 2% 78%  
56 2% 76%  
57 5% 74%  
58 7% 69%  
59 7% 62%  
60 6% 55% Median
61 21% 49%  
62 12% 28%  
63 7% 16%  
64 4% 10%  
65 2% 6%  
66 0.8% 3%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.1%  
47 4% 98%  
48 2% 94%  
49 10% 92%  
50 6% 82%  
51 9% 76%  
52 10% 67% Median
53 19% 57%  
54 7% 38%  
55 5% 31%  
56 4% 26%  
57 16% 22%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 3% 99.7%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 8% 93%  
49 7% 84%  
50 13% 77%  
51 15% 64% Median
52 10% 49%  
53 7% 40%  
54 23% 33%  
55 3% 10%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.9%  
30 6% 98.5%  
31 5% 93%  
32 3% 88%  
33 15% 85%  
34 24% 70% Median
35 10% 46%  
36 6% 36%  
37 18% 30%  
38 7% 12%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations