Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 7–13 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 28.3% | 20.2% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 12.1% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.1% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.6–12.4% | 8.1–13.1% |
| SME RODINA | 6.6% | 10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.6–12.4% | 8.1–13.1% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.4–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| MOST–HÍD | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.8% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 34 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 21 | 25 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–30 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 17 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| SME RODINA | 11 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 14 | 18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 15 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 |
| MOST–HÍD | 11 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 31 | 5% | 93% | |
| 32 | 3% | 88% | |
| 33 | 15% | 85% | |
| 34 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 35 | 10% | 46% | |
| 36 | 6% | 36% | |
| 37 | 18% | 30% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | |
| 39 | 2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 22 | 15% | 93% | |
| 23 | 16% | 78% | |
| 24 | 7% | 62% | |
| 25 | 26% | 55% | Median |
| 26 | 22% | 29% | |
| 27 | 4% | 7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 11% | 92% | |
| 17 | 25% | 81% | Last Result |
| 18 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 32% | |
| 20 | 10% | 21% | |
| 21 | 9% | 10% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 12% | 98% | |
| 16 | 6% | 86% | |
| 17 | 16% | 80% | |
| 18 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 19 | 7% | 47% | |
| 20 | 34% | 40% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 12% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 15 | 6% | 87% | |
| 16 | 17% | 81% | |
| 17 | 13% | 64% | |
| 18 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 28% | 35% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 10% | 89% | Last Result |
| 16 | 10% | 80% | |
| 17 | 41% | 70% | Median |
| 18 | 14% | 29% | |
| 19 | 8% | 14% | |
| 20 | 3% | 6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98% | |
| 11 | 8% | 92% | |
| 12 | 19% | 85% | |
| 13 | 44% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 22% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 75% | |
| 2 | 0% | 75% | |
| 3 | 0% | 75% | |
| 4 | 0% | 75% | |
| 5 | 0% | 75% | |
| 6 | 0% | 75% | |
| 7 | 0% | 75% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 9 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 44% | |
| 11 | 28% | 34% | Last Result |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 5% | |
| 8 | 2% | 5% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana | 89 | 87 | 100% | 82–93 | 81–93 | 80–95 | 79–98 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 75 | 70 | 4% | 65–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 61–78 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 75 | 60 | 0% | 54–63 | 54–65 | 53–66 | 50–68 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 60 | 53 | 0% | 49–57 | 47–58 | 47–58 | 45–61 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 64 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 45–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 34 | 0% | 31–38 | 30–38 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 81 | 2% | 97% | |
| 82 | 5% | 95% | |
| 83 | 9% | 90% | |
| 84 | 17% | 81% | |
| 85 | 4% | 64% | |
| 86 | 8% | 59% | |
| 87 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 88 | 4% | 38% | |
| 89 | 6% | 34% | Last Result |
| 90 | 5% | 28% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 92 | 4% | 23% | |
| 93 | 16% | 20% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 65 | 10% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 87% | |
| 67 | 10% | 82% | |
| 68 | 9% | 72% | |
| 69 | 11% | 64% | Median |
| 70 | 15% | 52% | |
| 71 | 4% | 38% | |
| 72 | 6% | 34% | |
| 73 | 6% | 28% | |
| 74 | 17% | 22% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 76 | 1.4% | 4% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 18% | 96% | |
| 55 | 2% | 78% | |
| 56 | 2% | 76% | |
| 57 | 5% | 74% | |
| 58 | 7% | 69% | |
| 59 | 7% | 62% | |
| 60 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 61 | 21% | 49% | |
| 62 | 12% | 28% | |
| 63 | 7% | 16% | |
| 64 | 4% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 67 | 2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 2% | 94% | |
| 49 | 10% | 92% | |
| 50 | 6% | 82% | |
| 51 | 9% | 76% | |
| 52 | 10% | 67% | Median |
| 53 | 19% | 57% | |
| 54 | 7% | 38% | |
| 55 | 5% | 31% | |
| 56 | 4% | 26% | |
| 57 | 16% | 22% | |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 45 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 97% | |
| 47 | 2% | 95% | |
| 48 | 8% | 93% | |
| 49 | 7% | 84% | |
| 50 | 13% | 77% | |
| 51 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 52 | 10% | 49% | |
| 53 | 7% | 40% | |
| 54 | 23% | 33% | |
| 55 | 3% | 10% | |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 31 | 5% | 93% | |
| 32 | 3% | 88% | |
| 33 | 15% | 85% | |
| 34 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 35 | 10% | 46% | |
| 36 | 6% | 36% | |
| 37 | 18% | 30% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | |
| 39 | 2% | 5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FOCUS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1012
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.92%