Opinion Poll by AKO, 4–7 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.2–19.2% 14.9–19.6% 14.2–20.4%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 32–37 31–38 30–40 28–41
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 29 25–32 25–32 24–33 23–35
Slovenská národná strana 15 18 15–20 15–21 15–21 14–23
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 12–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 13–17 13–18 12–18 11–20
SME RODINA 11 15 13–17 12–17 11–17 11–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 10–19
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.8% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.2%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 4% 96%  
32 7% 92%  
33 35% 86%  
34 6% 50% Median
35 19% 44%  
36 8% 25%  
37 9% 17%  
38 5% 8%  
39 0.9% 4%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.4%  
25 7% 97%  
26 5% 89%  
27 9% 85%  
28 16% 75%  
29 31% 60% Median
30 8% 29%  
31 6% 21%  
32 11% 15%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.7%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 9% 98% Last Result
16 5% 89%  
17 30% 84%  
18 9% 54% Median
19 19% 46%  
20 18% 26%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 5% 98% Last Result
15 7% 93%  
16 17% 85%  
17 36% 69% Median
18 19% 33%  
19 10% 14%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100%  
12 2% 99.1%  
13 9% 97%  
14 19% 88%  
15 38% 69% Median
16 15% 32%  
17 11% 17% Last Result
18 4% 6%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8% Last Result
12 4% 96%  
13 20% 92%  
14 18% 71%  
15 24% 54% Median
16 16% 30%  
17 11% 13%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 0.7% 98%  
12 5% 98%  
13 15% 93%  
14 21% 78%  
15 29% 57% Median
16 19% 28%  
17 7% 9%  
18 0.7% 2%  
19 0.9% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0% 80%  
7 0% 80%  
8 19% 80%  
9 35% 62% Median
10 11% 27%  
11 8% 15% Last Result
12 6% 7%  
13 0.3% 0.8%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA 89 83 99.9% 80–89 79–90 78–90 76–95
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 66 1.0% 63–72 62–72 61–73 60–76
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 60 0% 55–63 55–66 53–66 51–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 52 0% 49–55 48–58 47–59 46–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 48 0% 46–53 44–53 43–55 43–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 0% 32–37 31–38 30–40 28–41

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 1.0% 99.9% Majority
77 0.6% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 6% 96%  
80 7% 90%  
81 4% 83%  
82 29% 79%  
83 4% 50%  
84 5% 47% Median
85 14% 42%  
86 3% 28%  
87 7% 25%  
88 2% 18%  
89 7% 17% Last Result
90 8% 10%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.1% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.6%  
95 0.5% 0.5%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 3% 99.4%  
62 5% 97%  
63 7% 91%  
64 4% 85%  
65 30% 81%  
66 4% 51%  
67 5% 47% Median
68 4% 42%  
69 13% 38%  
70 11% 25%  
71 2% 14%  
72 9% 12%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.6% 2% Last Result
76 0.7% 1.0% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 0.5% 96%  
55 9% 96%  
56 2% 87%  
57 3% 85%  
58 4% 82%  
59 21% 77%  
60 15% 57%  
61 16% 41% Median
62 5% 26%  
63 11% 21%  
64 3% 10%  
65 2% 7%  
66 4% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.9%  
47 1.4% 98.8%  
48 6% 97%  
49 5% 92%  
50 18% 87%  
51 8% 69%  
52 17% 61% Median
53 11% 44%  
54 11% 33%  
55 13% 22%  
56 2% 10%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.3% 1.4%  
61 1.0% 1.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 4% 99.7%  
44 2% 96%  
45 1.2% 94%  
46 17% 93%  
47 6% 76%  
48 21% 70%  
49 14% 49% Median
50 10% 36%  
51 4% 26%  
52 9% 22%  
53 8% 13%  
54 1.0% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.8% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.2%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 4% 96%  
32 7% 92%  
33 35% 86%  
34 6% 50% Median
35 19% 44%  
36 8% 25%  
37 9% 17%  
38 5% 8%  
39 0.9% 4%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations