Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 24–30 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–23.9%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.1% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.9%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.8% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–41 33–41 33–42 31–44
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 23 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–30
Slovenská národná strana 15 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
SME RODINA 11 17 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 0–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 1.3% 98.8%  
33 10% 98%  
34 3% 88%  
35 27% 84%  
36 9% 57% Median
37 13% 48%  
38 7% 36%  
39 6% 28%  
40 6% 23%  
41 13% 17%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 10% 96% Last Result
22 32% 86%  
23 17% 54% Median
24 12% 38%  
25 10% 25%  
26 10% 15%  
27 3% 5%  
28 0.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 2%  
30 1.1% 1.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.6% Last Result
16 7% 98%  
17 9% 91%  
18 19% 82%  
19 26% 63% Median
20 25% 37%  
21 9% 12%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.9%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.6%  
14 3% 98.8% Last Result
15 14% 96%  
16 6% 81%  
17 51% 75% Median
18 12% 25%  
19 6% 13%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.2%  
14 13% 96%  
15 21% 83%  
16 28% 62% Median
17 20% 34% Last Result
18 4% 14%  
19 7% 10%  
20 0.9% 3%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 12% 96%  
15 8% 85%  
16 20% 77%  
17 23% 56% Median
18 9% 33%  
19 21% 24%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 7% 97%  
11 21% 90%  
12 38% 69% Median
13 18% 30%  
14 6% 12%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.0% 1.2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0% 86%  
7 0% 86%  
8 0% 86%  
9 17% 86%  
10 33% 69% Median
11 11% 36% Last Result
12 21% 25%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0.5% 2%  
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA 89 90 100% 85–94 84–94 83–98 80–99
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 73 14% 68–77 67–77 66–79 64–81
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 65 0% 61–69 59–70 58–70 55–72
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 55 0% 52–61 52–61 50–61 48–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 54 0% 50–57 49–59 48–60 46–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–41 33–41 33–42 31–44

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 0.8% 98.6%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 5% 93%  
86 6% 88%  
87 10% 82%  
88 9% 72%  
89 11% 63% Last Result, Median
90 24% 52%  
91 3% 28%  
92 4% 24%  
93 9% 20%  
94 7% 12%  
95 1.1% 5%  
96 0.9% 4%  
97 0.3% 3%  
98 0.6% 3%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.1%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 3% 97%  
68 6% 93%  
69 3% 87%  
70 11% 84%  
71 7% 73%  
72 12% 66% Median
73 27% 54%  
74 3% 27%  
75 10% 24% Last Result
76 1.1% 14% Majority
77 9% 13%  
78 0.8% 5%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 0.4% 2%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 0.7% 98.8%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 9% 92%  
62 6% 83%  
63 3% 77%  
64 22% 73%  
65 11% 51% Median
66 9% 40%  
67 12% 31%  
68 5% 19%  
69 4% 14%  
70 8% 10%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.8% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 2% 98.8%  
51 1.2% 97%  
52 8% 96%  
53 12% 88%  
54 22% 76%  
55 13% 54% Median
56 5% 41%  
57 11% 36%  
58 3% 25%  
59 4% 22%  
60 2% 18%  
61 14% 15%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.5% 99.3%  
48 1.4% 98.8%  
49 3% 97%  
50 13% 95%  
51 10% 82%  
52 6% 72%  
53 4% 66% Median
54 31% 61%  
55 10% 30%  
56 4% 20%  
57 8% 16%  
58 2% 9%  
59 3% 7%  
60 3% 4% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 1.3% 98.8%  
33 10% 98%  
34 3% 88%  
35 27% 84%  
36 9% 57% Median
37 13% 48%  
38 7% 36%  
39 6% 28%  
40 6% 23%  
41 13% 17%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations