Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 24–30 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 28.3% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–23.9% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.4–12.2% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.9% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 7.0–11.6% |
| SME RODINA | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 7.0–11.6% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| MOST–HÍD | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 36 | 33–41 | 33–41 | 33–42 | 31–44 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 21 | 23 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–30 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 15 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 14 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 17 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| SME RODINA | 11 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 0–16 |
| MOST–HÍD | 11 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 10% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 88% | |
| 35 | 27% | 84% | |
| 36 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 48% | |
| 38 | 7% | 36% | |
| 39 | 6% | 28% | |
| 40 | 6% | 23% | |
| 41 | 13% | 17% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 10% | 96% | Last Result |
| 22 | 32% | 86% | |
| 23 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 12% | 38% | |
| 25 | 10% | 25% | |
| 26 | 10% | 15% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 16 | 7% | 98% | |
| 17 | 9% | 91% | |
| 18 | 19% | 82% | |
| 19 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 20 | 25% | 37% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 15 | 14% | 96% | |
| 16 | 6% | 81% | |
| 17 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 25% | |
| 19 | 6% | 13% | |
| 20 | 5% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 13% | 96% | |
| 15 | 21% | 83% | |
| 16 | 28% | 62% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 34% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 14% | |
| 19 | 7% | 10% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 12% | 96% | |
| 15 | 8% | 85% | |
| 16 | 20% | 77% | |
| 17 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 33% | |
| 19 | 21% | 24% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 21% | 90% | |
| 12 | 38% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 18% | 30% | |
| 14 | 6% | 12% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 86% | |
| 2 | 0% | 86% | |
| 3 | 0% | 86% | |
| 4 | 0% | 86% | |
| 5 | 0% | 86% | |
| 6 | 0% | 86% | |
| 7 | 0% | 86% | |
| 8 | 0% | 86% | |
| 9 | 17% | 86% | |
| 10 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 36% | Last Result |
| 12 | 21% | 25% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA | 89 | 90 | 100% | 85–94 | 84–94 | 83–98 | 80–99 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 75 | 73 | 14% | 68–77 | 67–77 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 75 | 65 | 0% | 61–69 | 59–70 | 58–70 | 55–72 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 64 | 55 | 0% | 52–61 | 52–61 | 50–61 | 48–63 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 60 | 54 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–61 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 36 | 0% | 33–41 | 33–41 | 33–42 | 31–44 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 4% | 96% | |
| 85 | 5% | 93% | |
| 86 | 6% | 88% | |
| 87 | 10% | 82% | |
| 88 | 9% | 72% | |
| 89 | 11% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 90 | 24% | 52% | |
| 91 | 3% | 28% | |
| 92 | 4% | 24% | |
| 93 | 9% | 20% | |
| 94 | 7% | 12% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 99 | 2% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 6% | 93% | |
| 69 | 3% | 87% | |
| 70 | 11% | 84% | |
| 71 | 7% | 73% | |
| 72 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 73 | 27% | 54% | |
| 74 | 3% | 27% | |
| 75 | 10% | 24% | Last Result |
| 76 | 1.1% | 14% | Majority |
| 77 | 9% | 13% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 9% | 92% | |
| 62 | 6% | 83% | |
| 63 | 3% | 77% | |
| 64 | 22% | 73% | |
| 65 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 40% | |
| 67 | 12% | 31% | |
| 68 | 5% | 19% | |
| 69 | 4% | 14% | |
| 70 | 8% | 10% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 8% | 96% | |
| 53 | 12% | 88% | |
| 54 | 22% | 76% | |
| 55 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 41% | |
| 57 | 11% | 36% | |
| 58 | 3% | 25% | |
| 59 | 4% | 22% | |
| 60 | 2% | 18% | |
| 61 | 14% | 15% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 13% | 95% | |
| 51 | 10% | 82% | |
| 52 | 6% | 72% | |
| 53 | 4% | 66% | Median |
| 54 | 31% | 61% | |
| 55 | 10% | 30% | |
| 56 | 4% | 20% | |
| 57 | 8% | 16% | |
| 58 | 2% | 9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 10% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 88% | |
| 35 | 27% | 84% | |
| 36 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 48% | |
| 38 | 7% | 36% | |
| 39 | 6% | 28% | |
| 40 | 6% | 23% | |
| 41 | 13% | 17% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FOCUS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–30 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.39%