Opinion Poll by AKO, 16–21 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–40 33–42 32–42 31–44
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 28 26–31 25–32 24–32 23–35
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 15–19 15–20 14–21 13–22
Slovenská národná strana 15 18 15–19 15–20 14–20 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 13–18 13–18 12–18 12–20
SME RODINA 11 15 14–17 13–18 13–19 12–20
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 0–15
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0–9 0–9
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0–8 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.6%  
32 1.4% 98.7%  
33 9% 97%  
34 16% 88%  
35 10% 72%  
36 14% 62% Median
37 26% 48%  
38 4% 22%  
39 1.3% 17%  
40 8% 16%  
41 2% 8%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.3% 1.1%  
44 0.7% 0.8%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.1%  
25 5% 96%  
26 7% 91%  
27 26% 84%  
28 13% 58% Median
29 15% 44%  
30 19% 29%  
31 3% 11%  
32 6% 8%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 3% 99.4% Last Result
15 12% 96%  
16 8% 84%  
17 25% 76%  
18 13% 52% Median
19 29% 39%  
20 5% 10%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.8%  
14 3% 98%  
15 8% 95% Last Result
16 9% 87%  
17 25% 78%  
18 30% 53% Median
19 13% 22%  
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 9% 97%  
14 35% 88%  
15 22% 53% Median
16 10% 31%  
17 5% 21% Last Result
18 15% 16%  
19 0.7% 1.4%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100% Last Result
12 1.3% 99.5%  
13 5% 98%  
14 23% 93%  
15 29% 70% Median
16 21% 41%  
17 14% 21%  
18 3% 7%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.1%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0% 98.7%  
7 0% 98.7%  
8 0.1% 98.7%  
9 6% 98.6%  
10 29% 92%  
11 16% 63% Median
12 34% 48%  
13 10% 14%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 4% 83%  
9 36% 80% Median
10 19% 44%  
11 19% 25% Last Result
12 5% 6%  
13 1.2% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0.4% 3%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 0% 4%  
8 2% 4%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 89 86 100% 83–92 81–94 80–95 78–96
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 69 4% 66–73 64–74 63–77 62–77
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 62 0% 58–66 57–66 54–68 51–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 54 0% 51–58 50–58 49–61 46–62
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 51 0% 49–56 47–57 47–57 44–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–40 33–42 32–42 31–44

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 2% 99.4%  
80 1.0% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 9% 93%  
84 5% 84%  
85 8% 79%  
86 23% 71%  
87 17% 48% Median
88 10% 31%  
89 5% 21% Last Result
90 1.5% 17%  
91 2% 15%  
92 6% 13%  
93 0.8% 7%  
94 3% 6%  
95 3% 3%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 4% 94%  
66 4% 90%  
67 4% 86%  
68 29% 82%  
69 20% 52% Median
70 4% 32%  
71 7% 28%  
72 6% 21%  
73 8% 15%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.1% 5% Last Result
76 0.6% 4% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.4%  
53 0.5% 98.5%  
54 0.6% 98%  
55 1.1% 97%  
56 1.3% 96%  
57 3% 95%  
58 9% 92%  
59 2% 83%  
60 4% 81%  
61 13% 77%  
62 18% 64%  
63 16% 46% Median
64 7% 30%  
65 10% 23%  
66 9% 13%  
67 1.0% 4%  
68 2% 3%  
69 1.0% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.2%  
48 1.1% 98.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 95%  
51 5% 91%  
52 23% 87%  
53 8% 64%  
54 25% 56% Median
55 10% 31%  
56 4% 21%  
57 5% 17%  
58 8% 12%  
59 0.9% 4%  
60 0.2% 3%  
61 0.7% 3%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
65 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.4%  
46 0.6% 99.2%  
47 4% 98.6%  
48 3% 94%  
49 12% 91%  
50 3% 79%  
51 42% 76% Median
52 2% 34%  
53 12% 33%  
54 1.1% 21%  
55 8% 20%  
56 4% 12%  
57 5% 8%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0% 1.1%  
60 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.6%  
32 1.4% 98.7%  
33 9% 97%  
34 16% 88%  
35 10% 72%  
36 14% 62% Median
37 26% 48%  
38 4% 22%  
39 1.3% 17%  
40 8% 16%  
41 2% 8%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.3% 1.1%  
44 0.7% 0.8%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations