Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 4–11 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 12.4% 11.2–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 10.0–15.3%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.8% 8.6–11.1% 8.3–11.4% 8.1–11.7% 7.6–12.4%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.7% 8.6–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.3%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 35–42 35–43 35–44 33–46
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 22 19–24 19–26 18–27 17–28
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 19 15–21 15–21 14–22 13–23
Slovenská národná strana 15 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 13–22
SME RODINA 11 15 13–17 12–17 11–18 11–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 9–15 9–15 0–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–14
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–10
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–10
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 1.3% 99.1%  
35 15% 98%  
36 6% 83%  
37 22% 77%  
38 9% 56% Median
39 14% 47%  
40 7% 33%  
41 5% 25%  
42 11% 20%  
43 7% 9%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 3% 98%  
19 6% 95%  
20 8% 89%  
21 16% 81% Last Result
22 16% 65% Median
23 13% 49%  
24 27% 36%  
25 3% 9%  
26 2% 6%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 3% 99.4%  
15 7% 97%  
16 10% 90%  
17 9% 80% Last Result
18 21% 72%  
19 22% 51% Median
20 16% 29%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8%  
14 4% 99.2%  
15 7% 95% Last Result
16 15% 88%  
17 16% 73%  
18 31% 57% Median
19 12% 26%  
20 6% 14%  
21 6% 8%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 2% 98% Last Result
15 14% 96%  
16 22% 81%  
17 25% 60% Median
18 15% 35%  
19 10% 19%  
20 7% 9%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.6% Last Result
12 5% 97%  
13 23% 92%  
14 15% 69%  
15 25% 54% Median
16 13% 29%  
17 14% 17%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0.1% 98%  
9 4% 98%  
10 15% 95%  
11 26% 80%  
12 21% 54% Median
13 13% 33%  
14 12% 20%  
15 7% 8%  
16 0.8% 1.1%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 0% 84%  
8 0.2% 84%  
9 28% 84%  
10 27% 56% Median
11 21% 29% Last Result
12 5% 8%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0.2% 7%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0.3% 7%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA 89 87 99.9% 84–93 81–94 81–95 78–99
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 70 11% 66–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 64 0.1% 60–69 59–71 56–72 52–74
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 56 0% 52–61 51–62 50–62 48–65
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 52 0% 49–58 48–59 48–60 46–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 0% 35–42 35–43 35–44 33–46

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9% Majority
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.8% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 98.9%  
80 0.9% 98.5%  
81 3% 98%  
82 3% 94%  
83 2% 92%  
84 6% 90%  
85 7% 84%  
86 17% 78%  
87 17% 61%  
88 5% 44% Median
89 11% 38% Last Result
90 6% 28%  
91 3% 22%  
92 5% 18%  
93 6% 14%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.9% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 7% 87%  
68 5% 80%  
69 6% 75%  
70 28% 70%  
71 9% 42% Median
72 3% 33%  
73 4% 30%  
74 5% 27%  
75 10% 21% Last Result
76 4% 11% Majority
77 2% 7%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.4%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 0.6% 98%  
56 0.3% 98%  
57 1.1% 97%  
58 1.2% 96%  
59 4% 95%  
60 8% 91%  
61 3% 84%  
62 8% 80%  
63 5% 73%  
64 19% 68%  
65 6% 49%  
66 6% 42% Median
67 8% 37%  
68 18% 29%  
69 3% 11%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 1.0% 1.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 4% 99.0%  
51 5% 95%  
52 5% 90%  
53 5% 86%  
54 9% 80%  
55 18% 71%  
56 7% 53% Median
57 15% 47%  
58 10% 31%  
59 6% 22%  
60 3% 16%  
61 5% 13%  
62 6% 8%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.4%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 1.5% 99.2%  
48 4% 98%  
49 5% 93%  
50 10% 88%  
51 6% 78%  
52 27% 72%  
53 7% 45% Median
54 10% 38%  
55 3% 29%  
56 6% 26%  
57 5% 19%  
58 7% 14%  
59 4% 8%  
60 1.4% 3% Last Result
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.6% 99.7%  
34 1.3% 99.1%  
35 15% 98%  
36 6% 83%  
37 22% 77%  
38 9% 56% Median
39 14% 47%  
40 7% 33%  
41 5% 25%  
42 11% 20%  
43 7% 9%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations