Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 4–11 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 28.3% | 21.7% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.6–23.9% | 19.3–24.3% | 18.5–25.2% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 12.1% | 12.4% | 11.2–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.6% | 10.0–15.3% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.1% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.6–11.1% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.1–11.7% | 7.6–12.4% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.6–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 8.0–11.6% | 7.5–12.3% |
| SME RODINA | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| MOST–HÍD | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 38 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 35–44 | 33–46 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 21 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 17 | 19 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 15 | 18 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 14 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 13–22 |
| SME RODINA | 11 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 11–19 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 0–16 |
| MOST–HÍD | 11 | 10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 15% | 98% | |
| 36 | 6% | 83% | |
| 37 | 22% | 77% | |
| 38 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 47% | |
| 40 | 7% | 33% | |
| 41 | 5% | 25% | |
| 42 | 11% | 20% | |
| 43 | 7% | 9% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 6% | 95% | |
| 20 | 8% | 89% | |
| 21 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 22 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 23 | 13% | 49% | |
| 24 | 27% | 36% | |
| 25 | 3% | 9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 6% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 7% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 90% | |
| 17 | 9% | 80% | Last Result |
| 18 | 21% | 72% | |
| 19 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 29% | |
| 21 | 9% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 16 | 15% | 88% | |
| 17 | 16% | 73% | |
| 18 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 26% | |
| 20 | 6% | 14% | |
| 21 | 6% | 8% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 15 | 14% | 96% | |
| 16 | 22% | 81% | |
| 17 | 25% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 35% | |
| 19 | 10% | 19% | |
| 20 | 7% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 12 | 5% | 97% | |
| 13 | 23% | 92% | |
| 14 | 15% | 69% | |
| 15 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 29% | |
| 17 | 14% | 17% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98% | |
| 10 | 15% | 95% | |
| 11 | 26% | 80% | |
| 12 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 33% | |
| 14 | 12% | 20% | |
| 15 | 7% | 8% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 0% | 84% | |
| 4 | 0% | 84% | |
| 5 | 0% | 84% | |
| 6 | 0% | 84% | |
| 7 | 0% | 84% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 9 | 28% | 84% | |
| 10 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 29% | Last Result |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 9 | 5% | 7% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA | 89 | 87 | 99.9% | 84–93 | 81–94 | 81–95 | 78–99 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 75 | 70 | 11% | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 62–81 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 75 | 64 | 0.1% | 60–69 | 59–71 | 56–72 | 52–74 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 64 | 56 | 0% | 52–61 | 51–62 | 50–62 | 48–65 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 60 | 52 | 0% | 49–58 | 48–59 | 48–60 | 46–61 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 38 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–43 | 35–44 | 33–46 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 81 | 3% | 98% | |
| 82 | 3% | 94% | |
| 83 | 2% | 92% | |
| 84 | 6% | 90% | |
| 85 | 7% | 84% | |
| 86 | 17% | 78% | |
| 87 | 17% | 61% | |
| 88 | 5% | 44% | Median |
| 89 | 11% | 38% | Last Result |
| 90 | 6% | 28% | |
| 91 | 3% | 22% | |
| 92 | 5% | 18% | |
| 93 | 6% | 14% | |
| 94 | 3% | 8% | |
| 95 | 2% | 4% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 92% | |
| 67 | 7% | 87% | |
| 68 | 5% | 80% | |
| 69 | 6% | 75% | |
| 70 | 28% | 70% | |
| 71 | 9% | 42% | Median |
| 72 | 3% | 33% | |
| 73 | 4% | 30% | |
| 74 | 5% | 27% | |
| 75 | 10% | 21% | Last Result |
| 76 | 4% | 11% | Majority |
| 77 | 2% | 7% | |
| 78 | 4% | 5% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 8% | 91% | |
| 61 | 3% | 84% | |
| 62 | 8% | 80% | |
| 63 | 5% | 73% | |
| 64 | 19% | 68% | |
| 65 | 6% | 49% | |
| 66 | 6% | 42% | Median |
| 67 | 8% | 37% | |
| 68 | 18% | 29% | |
| 69 | 3% | 11% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 5% | 95% | |
| 52 | 5% | 90% | |
| 53 | 5% | 86% | |
| 54 | 9% | 80% | |
| 55 | 18% | 71% | |
| 56 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 57 | 15% | 47% | |
| 58 | 10% | 31% | |
| 59 | 6% | 22% | |
| 60 | 3% | 16% | |
| 61 | 5% | 13% | |
| 62 | 6% | 8% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 5% | 93% | |
| 50 | 10% | 88% | |
| 51 | 6% | 78% | |
| 52 | 27% | 72% | |
| 53 | 7% | 45% | Median |
| 54 | 10% | 38% | |
| 55 | 3% | 29% | |
| 56 | 6% | 26% | |
| 57 | 5% | 19% | |
| 58 | 7% | 14% | |
| 59 | 4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 61 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 15% | 98% | |
| 36 | 6% | 83% | |
| 37 | 22% | 77% | |
| 38 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 47% | |
| 40 | 7% | 33% | |
| 41 | 5% | 25% | |
| 42 | 11% | 20% | |
| 43 | 7% | 9% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FOCUS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–11 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%