Opinion Poll by AKO, 18–21 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–40 32–40 31–40 30–41
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 21–31
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 17 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Slovenská národná strana 15 17 15–19 15–19 15–20 13–21
SME RODINA 11 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–20
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 12–17 12–17 11–17 11–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 9–13 9–13 9–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 6% 97%  
33 6% 90%  
34 11% 85%  
35 10% 74%  
36 40% 64% Median
37 5% 24%  
38 6% 19%  
39 2% 14%  
40 11% 12%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
22 1.4% 99.2%  
23 7% 98%  
24 14% 91%  
25 16% 76%  
26 40% 60% Median
27 5% 20%  
28 9% 16%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.5%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 6% 98.6%  
17 52% 93% Median
18 13% 40%  
19 5% 27%  
20 13% 22%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.1% 1.4%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 98.9%  
15 21% 98% Last Result
16 9% 76%  
17 45% 67% Median
18 10% 22%  
19 9% 13%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 6% 99.0%  
14 9% 93%  
15 15% 84%  
16 19% 69% Median
17 43% 50%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 8% 97%  
13 9% 89%  
14 12% 80%  
15 52% 67% Median
16 5% 16%  
17 10% 11% Last Result
18 0.8% 1.2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 6% 98%  
11 11% 92%  
12 35% 81% Median
13 36% 46%  
14 8% 10%  
15 1.2% 3%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0.5% 98%  
9 40% 98%  
10 18% 58% Median
11 22% 40% Last Result
12 8% 18%  
13 10% 10%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 4% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0.8% 2%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 89 87 99.6% 83–89 81–90 80–91 77–94
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 70 0.4% 64–71 63–71 62–73 60–75
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 62 0% 60–66 58–68 57–68 54–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 53 0% 49–55 49–56 47–56 46–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 53 0% 48–56 46–56 46–56 44–57
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–40 32–40 31–40 30–41

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.4% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.6% Majority
77 0% 99.5%  
78 0.1% 99.5%  
79 0.2% 99.4%  
80 4% 99.2%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 7% 90%  
84 2% 84%  
85 2% 82%  
86 4% 80% Median
87 45% 76%  
88 15% 31%  
89 10% 16% Last Result
90 3% 6%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.2%  
62 1.1% 98%  
63 4% 97%  
64 3% 93%  
65 3% 90%  
66 6% 87%  
67 8% 81%  
68 6% 73%  
69 14% 67% Median
70 37% 53%  
71 12% 16%  
72 1.3% 4%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
76 0.1% 0.4% Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.2% 99.4%  
56 0.4% 99.2%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 3% 97%  
59 2% 94%  
60 7% 92%  
61 8% 85%  
62 33% 77%  
63 11% 43% Median
64 8% 33%  
65 15% 25%  
66 4% 10%  
67 0.5% 7%  
68 5% 6%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.8%  
47 0.8% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 10% 96%  
50 3% 86%  
51 5% 83%  
52 14% 78%  
53 40% 64% Median
54 2% 24%  
55 15% 22%  
56 5% 7%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.7%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.2%  
46 4% 98%  
47 3% 94%  
48 4% 91%  
49 4% 87%  
50 7% 83%  
51 18% 75%  
52 5% 58% Median
53 33% 53%  
54 7% 20%  
55 0.7% 13%  
56 11% 12%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 6% 97%  
33 6% 90%  
34 11% 85%  
35 10% 74%  
36 40% 64% Median
37 5% 24%  
38 6% 19%  
39 2% 14%  
40 11% 12%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations