Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 2–9 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.6–22.8% 18.3–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.8%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.0%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.3% 7.1–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 35–40 33–43 33–43 32–45
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 22 20–24 19–25 19–26 18–27
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–22
SME RODINA 11 18 16–21 14–21 14–22 14–22
Slovenská národná strana 15 17 14–18 14–19 13–20 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 12–20
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 13 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 9–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0 0–10
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–10
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 91%  
36 10% 85%  
37 16% 76%  
38 29% 59% Median
39 8% 30%  
40 12% 22%  
41 2% 10%  
42 3% 8%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.5% 2%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 5% 98%  
20 20% 93%  
21 15% 73% Last Result
22 22% 59% Median
23 16% 37%  
24 13% 21%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
15 4% 98.8%  
16 21% 95%  
17 23% 73%  
18 15% 50% Median
19 21% 35%  
20 8% 14%  
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 3% 93%  
16 6% 91%  
17 29% 85%  
18 16% 55% Median
19 10% 40%  
20 19% 30%  
21 7% 10%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 12% 97%  
15 18% 86% Last Result
16 14% 68%  
17 17% 54% Median
18 28% 38%  
19 5% 9%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.0% 1.3%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 13% 97%  
14 9% 84%  
15 30% 74% Median
16 26% 44%  
17 7% 19% Last Result
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0.6% 99.8%  
10 12% 99.2%  
11 11% 87%  
12 24% 75%  
13 35% 51% Median
14 13% 16%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.9% 1.3%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0% 91%  
7 0% 91%  
8 0.1% 91%  
9 5% 91%  
10 60% 86% Median
11 14% 26% Last Result
12 8% 11%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0.1% 2%  
9 0.9% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0.1% 6%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.2% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 90 100% 86–94 84–99 83–101 80–102
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 73 12% 68–76 67–79 65–82 63–84
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 65 0% 60–66 59–67 57–68 53–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 55 0% 51–57 49–59 49–64 47–64
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 56 0% 51–59 50–61 50–63 49–64
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 0% 35–40 33–43 33–43 32–45

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.4%  
82 0.5% 98.9%  
83 3% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 3% 93%  
86 2% 91%  
87 8% 88%  
88 8% 81%  
89 15% 72% Last Result
90 11% 57%  
91 12% 46% Median
92 18% 33%  
93 4% 15%  
94 4% 11%  
95 0.6% 8%  
96 1.0% 7%  
97 0.3% 6%  
98 0.7% 6%  
99 2% 5%  
100 0.8% 4%  
101 2% 3%  
102 1.0% 1.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 2% 99.2%  
66 1.2% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 11% 90%  
70 3% 79%  
71 9% 77%  
72 17% 68%  
73 20% 51% Median
74 10% 31%  
75 8% 20% Last Result
76 3% 12% Majority
77 3% 9%  
78 0.6% 6%  
79 1.1% 5%  
80 0.3% 4%  
81 0.8% 4%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.1% 0.8%  
84 0.6% 0.7%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 0.3% 99.3%  
55 0.3% 99.0%  
56 0.3% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 4% 93%  
61 7% 88%  
62 4% 82%  
63 10% 77%  
64 17% 67%  
65 22% 51% Median
66 21% 28%  
67 3% 8%  
68 3% 4%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 1.5% 99.2%  
49 4% 98%  
50 4% 94%  
51 8% 90%  
52 6% 83%  
53 9% 77%  
54 17% 68%  
55 19% 51% Median
56 20% 32%  
57 3% 12%  
58 1.1% 10%  
59 4% 8%  
60 0.8% 4%  
61 0.2% 4%  
62 0.1% 3%  
63 0.7% 3%  
64 3% 3% Last Result
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 8% 94%  
52 3% 86%  
53 2% 83%  
54 6% 81%  
55 20% 75%  
56 6% 55% Median
57 16% 49%  
58 22% 33%  
59 2% 11%  
60 4% 9% Last Result
61 1.2% 6%  
62 0.3% 5%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 91%  
36 10% 85%  
37 16% 76%  
38 29% 59% Median
39 8% 30%  
40 12% 22%  
41 2% 10%  
42 3% 8%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.5% 2%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations