Opinion Poll by AKO, 15–17 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.1% 18.2–24.9%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 33–38 33–39 33–41 30–43
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 26 24–30 23–30 23–31 22–35
Slovenská národná strana 15 18 15–21 15–22 15–23 15–23
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 20 16–20 15–20 15–21 15–23
SME RODINA 11 17 15–20 15–20 15–21 15–23
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 9–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–10 0–11 0–12 0–12
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0 0 0–9 0–11
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.4%  
32 0.8% 98.8%  
33 9% 98%  
34 9% 89%  
35 11% 80%  
36 3% 69%  
37 4% 66%  
38 54% 62% Median
39 3% 8%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.2% 1.3%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
22 0.2% 99.5%  
23 9% 99.4%  
24 1.1% 90%  
25 5% 89%  
26 46% 84% Median
27 3% 38%  
28 19% 35%  
29 4% 16%  
30 8% 12%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.5% 2%  
33 0.5% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.8%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 17% 99.7% Last Result
16 4% 83%  
17 3% 78%  
18 34% 75% Median
19 15% 41%  
20 8% 26%  
21 11% 18%  
22 5% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
15 7% 99.6%  
16 15% 92%  
17 4% 77%  
18 4% 73%  
19 8% 68%  
20 56% 61% Median
21 3% 5%  
22 1.0% 1.5%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 19% 99.6%  
16 8% 81%  
17 54% 73% Median
18 4% 19%  
19 5% 15%  
20 6% 10%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.6% 2%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 34% 98%  
13 12% 64%  
14 26% 51% Median
15 13% 25%  
16 9% 12%  
17 2% 3% Last Result
18 0.7% 1.4%  
19 0.4% 0.6%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 0.3% 94%  
9 9% 94%  
10 61% 85% Median
11 9% 24%  
12 12% 14%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 0% 90%  
8 0.6% 90%  
9 44% 89% Median
10 39% 45%  
11 3% 6% Last Result
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0.6% 3%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 1.0%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0% 1.0%  
8 0.2% 1.0%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA 89 93 100% 86–94 85–97 85–99 84–101
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 73 10% 68–75 68–79 68–81 66–82
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 65 0% 60–67 56–68 53–69 51–72
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 56 0% 52–58 52–59 51–62 49–64
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 54 0% 50–56 50–58 50–60 48–62
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 0% 33–38 33–39 33–41 30–43

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.6%  
85 8% 99.1%  
86 3% 91%  
87 2% 88%  
88 16% 86%  
89 12% 70% Last Result
90 2% 57%  
91 4% 55%  
92 0.7% 52%  
93 40% 51% Median
94 2% 11%  
95 1.4% 9%  
96 1.1% 8%  
97 2% 7%  
98 2% 5%  
99 0.7% 3%  
100 2% 2%  
101 0.1% 0.5%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.3%  
68 16% 98.8%  
69 10% 83%  
70 4% 73%  
71 5% 69%  
72 4% 64%  
73 43% 61% Median
74 5% 17%  
75 2% 12% Last Result
76 2% 10% Majority
77 2% 8%  
78 0.5% 6%  
79 0.6% 6%  
80 1.0% 5%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.8% 1.2%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.4% 99.5%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 0.7% 97%  
55 1.1% 97%  
56 1.1% 96%  
57 0.6% 94%  
58 2% 94%  
59 0.7% 91%  
60 1.4% 91%  
61 4% 89%  
62 9% 85%  
63 16% 76%  
64 2% 60%  
65 42% 58% Median
66 5% 16%  
67 1.2% 11%  
68 7% 10%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.1% 2%  
71 0% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 98.9%  
51 3% 98%  
52 10% 95%  
53 21% 85%  
54 2% 64%  
55 2% 62%  
56 45% 60% Median
57 2% 15%  
58 7% 13%  
59 3% 6%  
60 0.6% 4%  
61 0.2% 3%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 1.2%  
64 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 0.8% 99.2%  
50 9% 98%  
51 8% 90%  
52 9% 81%  
53 17% 72%  
54 5% 55%  
55 36% 50% Median
56 5% 14%  
57 2% 9%  
58 4% 7%  
59 0.4% 4%  
60 1.1% 3% Last Result
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.9% 1.2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.4%  
32 0.8% 98.8%  
33 9% 98%  
34 9% 89%  
35 11% 80%  
36 3% 69%  
37 4% 66%  
38 54% 62% Median
39 3% 8%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.2% 1.3%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations