Opinion Poll by AKO, 15–17 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
28.3% |
21.4% |
19.8–23.1% |
19.4–23.6% |
19.0–24.1% |
18.2–24.9% |
Sloboda a Solidarita |
12.1% |
15.7% |
14.3–17.3% |
13.9–17.7% |
13.6–18.1% |
12.9–18.9% |
Slovenská národná strana |
8.6% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.4% |
9.5–12.8% |
9.2–13.1% |
8.7–13.8% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko |
8.0% |
10.9% |
9.7–12.3% |
9.4–12.7% |
9.1–13.0% |
8.6–13.7% |
SME RODINA |
6.6% |
10.8% |
9.6–12.2% |
9.3–12.5% |
9.0–12.9% |
8.5–13.6% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti |
11.0% |
8.4% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.1–10.0% |
6.8–10.3% |
6.4–10.9% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie |
4.9% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.8–7.8% |
4.4–8.3% |
MOST–HÍD |
6.5% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.3–6.6% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.7–7.4% |
Progresívne Slovensko |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.3% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.7–6.0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia |
0.0% |
3.3% |
2.7–4.1% |
2.5–4.4% |
2.4–4.6% |
2.1–5.0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja |
4.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
98.8% |
|
33 |
9% |
98% |
|
34 |
9% |
89% |
|
35 |
11% |
80% |
|
36 |
3% |
69% |
|
37 |
4% |
66% |
|
38 |
54% |
62% |
Median |
39 |
3% |
8% |
|
40 |
2% |
5% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
22 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
25 |
5% |
89% |
|
26 |
46% |
84% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
38% |
|
28 |
19% |
35% |
|
29 |
4% |
16% |
|
30 |
8% |
12% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
17% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
16 |
4% |
83% |
|
17 |
3% |
78% |
|
18 |
34% |
75% |
Median |
19 |
15% |
41% |
|
20 |
8% |
26% |
|
21 |
11% |
18% |
|
22 |
5% |
7% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
15 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
15% |
92% |
|
17 |
4% |
77% |
|
18 |
4% |
73% |
|
19 |
8% |
68% |
|
20 |
56% |
61% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
5% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
19% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
8% |
81% |
|
17 |
54% |
73% |
Median |
18 |
4% |
19% |
|
19 |
5% |
15% |
|
20 |
6% |
10% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
34% |
98% |
|
13 |
12% |
64% |
|
14 |
26% |
51% |
Median |
15 |
13% |
25% |
|
16 |
9% |
12% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
94% |
|
2 |
0% |
94% |
|
3 |
0% |
94% |
|
4 |
0% |
94% |
|
5 |
0% |
94% |
|
6 |
0% |
94% |
|
7 |
0% |
94% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
9 |
9% |
94% |
|
10 |
61% |
85% |
Median |
11 |
9% |
24% |
|
12 |
12% |
14% |
|
13 |
2% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
90% |
|
2 |
0% |
90% |
|
3 |
0% |
90% |
|
4 |
0% |
90% |
|
5 |
0% |
90% |
|
6 |
0% |
90% |
|
7 |
0% |
90% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
9 |
44% |
89% |
Median |
10 |
39% |
45% |
|
11 |
3% |
6% |
Last Result |
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.0% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
2 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
4 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
5 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA |
89 |
93 |
100% |
86–94 |
85–97 |
85–99 |
84–101 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA |
75 |
73 |
10% |
68–75 |
68–79 |
68–81 |
66–82 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD |
75 |
65 |
0% |
60–67 |
56–68 |
53–69 |
51–72 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana |
64 |
56 |
0% |
52–58 |
52–59 |
51–62 |
49–64 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA |
60 |
54 |
0% |
50–56 |
50–58 |
50–60 |
48–62 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia |
49 |
38 |
0% |
33–38 |
33–39 |
33–41 |
30–43 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
81 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
86 |
3% |
91% |
|
87 |
2% |
88% |
|
88 |
16% |
86% |
|
89 |
12% |
70% |
Last Result |
90 |
2% |
57% |
|
91 |
4% |
55% |
|
92 |
0.7% |
52% |
|
93 |
40% |
51% |
Median |
94 |
2% |
11% |
|
95 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
96 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
97 |
2% |
7% |
|
98 |
2% |
5% |
|
99 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
100 |
2% |
2% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
102 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
103 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
105 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
107 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
108 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
67 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
68 |
16% |
98.8% |
|
69 |
10% |
83% |
|
70 |
4% |
73% |
|
71 |
5% |
69% |
|
72 |
4% |
64% |
|
73 |
43% |
61% |
Median |
74 |
5% |
17% |
|
75 |
2% |
12% |
Last Result |
76 |
2% |
10% |
Majority |
77 |
2% |
8% |
|
78 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
80 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
81 |
3% |
4% |
|
82 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
55 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
57 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
58 |
2% |
94% |
|
59 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
60 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
61 |
4% |
89% |
|
62 |
9% |
85% |
|
63 |
16% |
76% |
|
64 |
2% |
60% |
|
65 |
42% |
58% |
Median |
66 |
5% |
16% |
|
67 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
68 |
7% |
10% |
|
69 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
71 |
0% |
2% |
|
72 |
2% |
2% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
98.9% |
|
51 |
3% |
98% |
|
52 |
10% |
95% |
|
53 |
21% |
85% |
|
54 |
2% |
64% |
|
55 |
2% |
62% |
|
56 |
45% |
60% |
Median |
57 |
2% |
15% |
|
58 |
7% |
13% |
|
59 |
3% |
6% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
65 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
50 |
9% |
98% |
|
51 |
8% |
90% |
|
52 |
9% |
81% |
|
53 |
17% |
72% |
|
54 |
5% |
55% |
|
55 |
36% |
50% |
Median |
56 |
5% |
14% |
|
57 |
2% |
9% |
|
58 |
4% |
7% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
3% |
Last Result |
61 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
SMER–sociálna demokracia
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
98.8% |
|
33 |
9% |
98% |
|
34 |
9% |
89% |
|
35 |
11% |
80% |
|
36 |
3% |
69% |
|
37 |
4% |
66% |
|
38 |
54% |
62% |
Median |
39 |
3% |
8% |
|
40 |
2% |
5% |
|
41 |
2% |
3% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: AKO
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%