Opinion Poll by AKO, 30 August–5 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 28.3% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 12.1% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| SME RODINA | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.3–12.1% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.7–11.4% | 7.2–12.0% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.5–11.1% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| MOST–HÍD | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 37 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 30–42 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 21 | 26 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 22–31 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 15 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
| SME RODINA | 11 | 15 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 13–18 | 12–20 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 17 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 14 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| MOST–HÍD | 11 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 0–14 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 15% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 84% | |
| 33 | 7% | 81% | |
| 34 | 2% | 74% | |
| 35 | 8% | 72% | |
| 36 | 5% | 64% | |
| 37 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 27% | 44% | |
| 39 | 16% | 17% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 20% | 94% | |
| 25 | 10% | 74% | |
| 26 | 30% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 34% | |
| 28 | 9% | 24% | |
| 29 | 12% | 15% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 16 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 36% | 96% | |
| 18 | 7% | 60% | |
| 19 | 40% | 53% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 13% | |
| 21 | 6% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 15 | 52% | 96% | Median |
| 16 | 31% | 44% | |
| 17 | 6% | 13% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98% | |
| 14 | 37% | 93% | |
| 15 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 32% | |
| 17 | 20% | 28% | Last Result |
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 16% | 95% | |
| 14 | 17% | 79% | Last Result |
| 15 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 38% | |
| 17 | 22% | 25% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 10% | 93% | |
| 12 | 33% | 83% | |
| 13 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 24% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 9 | 17% | 98% | |
| 10 | 38% | 80% | Median |
| 11 | 27% | 42% | Last Result |
| 12 | 12% | 16% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 12% | |
| 8 | 2% | 12% | |
| 9 | 8% | 10% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 89 | 86 | 99.1% | 80–88 | 80–88 | 79–88 | 74–92 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 75 | 70 | 0.8% | 66–73 | 66–73 | 65–73 | 61–78 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 75 | 65 | 0% | 60–69 | 59–69 | 58–69 | 55–69 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 64 | 55 | 0% | 50–58 | 50–58 | 49–58 | 47–61 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 60 | 52 | 0% | 47–54 | 47–55 | 47–56 | 43–57 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 37 | 0% | 31–39 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 30–42 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 80 | 13% | 97% | |
| 81 | 2% | 84% | |
| 82 | 2% | 81% | |
| 83 | 9% | 79% | |
| 84 | 9% | 71% | |
| 85 | 6% | 61% | |
| 86 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 87 | 26% | 41% | |
| 88 | 13% | 15% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 2% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 10% | 96% | |
| 67 | 9% | 86% | |
| 68 | 6% | 77% | |
| 69 | 5% | 71% | |
| 70 | 26% | 66% | |
| 71 | 15% | 40% | Median |
| 72 | 5% | 26% | |
| 73 | 19% | 20% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 5% | 97% | |
| 60 | 9% | 92% | |
| 61 | 3% | 83% | |
| 62 | 6% | 80% | |
| 63 | 9% | 74% | |
| 64 | 2% | 66% | |
| 65 | 25% | 63% | |
| 66 | 8% | 39% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 31% | |
| 68 | 6% | 18% | |
| 69 | 11% | 12% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 12% | 95% | |
| 51 | 9% | 83% | |
| 52 | 2% | 74% | |
| 53 | 4% | 72% | |
| 54 | 8% | 68% | |
| 55 | 26% | 60% | |
| 56 | 14% | 35% | Median |
| 57 | 5% | 21% | |
| 58 | 14% | 15% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 47 | 14% | 98% | |
| 48 | 2% | 84% | |
| 49 | 5% | 82% | |
| 50 | 3% | 77% | |
| 51 | 12% | 73% | |
| 52 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 53 | 23% | 47% | |
| 54 | 18% | 24% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 56 | 3% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 15% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 84% | |
| 33 | 7% | 81% | |
| 34 | 2% | 74% | |
| 35 | 8% | 72% | |
| 36 | 5% | 64% | |
| 37 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 27% | 44% | |
| 39 | 16% | 17% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: AKO
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 August–5 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.69%