Opinion Poll by AKO, 30 August–5 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 31–39 31–39 31–39 30–42
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 26 24–29 23–29 23–29 22–31
Slovenská národná strana 15 19 17–20 17–21 16–21 15–21
SME RODINA 11 15 15–17 15–18 13–18 12–20
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 11–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 13 11–14 10–14 10–15 10–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 9–12 9–12 9–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–10
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 15% 98.8%  
32 3% 84%  
33 7% 81%  
34 2% 74%  
35 8% 72%  
36 5% 64%  
37 15% 59% Median
38 27% 44%  
39 16% 17%  
40 0.4% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
22 0.9% 99.5%  
23 5% 98.7%  
24 20% 94%  
25 10% 74%  
26 30% 64% Median
27 10% 34%  
28 9% 24%  
29 12% 15%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 1.1% 1.4%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
16 3% 98.7%  
17 36% 96%  
18 7% 60%  
19 40% 53% Median
20 7% 13%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 2% 99.9%  
13 1.2% 98%  
14 1.0% 97%  
15 52% 96% Median
16 31% 44%  
17 6% 13%  
18 5% 7%  
19 0.6% 2%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 5% 98%  
14 37% 93%  
15 24% 57% Median
16 4% 32%  
17 20% 28% Last Result
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.2%  
13 16% 95%  
14 17% 79% Last Result
15 23% 62% Median
16 13% 38%  
17 22% 25%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 7% 99.7%  
11 10% 93%  
12 33% 83%  
13 27% 50% Median
14 19% 24%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.1% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0.6% 98%  
9 17% 98%  
10 38% 80% Median
11 27% 42% Last Result
12 12% 16%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 0% 12%  
8 2% 12%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 89 86 99.1% 80–88 80–88 79–88 74–92
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 70 0.8% 66–73 66–73 65–73 61–78
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 65 0% 60–69 59–69 58–69 55–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 55 0% 50–58 50–58 49–58 47–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 52 0% 47–54 47–55 47–56 43–57
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 0% 31–39 31–39 31–39 30–42

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 0.1% 99.1% Majority
77 0.5% 98.9%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 1.0% 98%  
80 13% 97%  
81 2% 84%  
82 2% 81%  
83 9% 79%  
84 9% 71%  
85 6% 61%  
86 14% 55% Median
87 26% 41%  
88 13% 15%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.2% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.1%  
63 0.5% 98.8%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 2% 98%  
66 10% 96%  
67 9% 86%  
68 6% 77%  
69 5% 71%  
70 26% 66%  
71 15% 40% Median
72 5% 26%  
73 19% 20%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
76 0.2% 0.8% Majority
77 0.1% 0.6%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 0.2% 98.9%  
57 0.8% 98.7%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 5% 97%  
60 9% 92%  
61 3% 83%  
62 6% 80%  
63 9% 74%  
64 2% 66%  
65 25% 63%  
66 8% 39% Median
67 13% 31%  
68 6% 18%  
69 11% 12%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 1.2% 99.1%  
49 3% 98%  
50 12% 95%  
51 9% 83%  
52 2% 74%  
53 4% 72%  
54 8% 68%  
55 26% 60%  
56 14% 35% Median
57 5% 21%  
58 14% 15%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.5%  
62 0% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
65 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 0.4% 99.1%  
46 0.9% 98.7%  
47 14% 98%  
48 2% 84%  
49 5% 82%  
50 3% 77%  
51 12% 73%  
52 14% 61% Median
53 23% 47%  
54 18% 24%  
55 1.2% 5%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.5% 0.9%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 15% 98.8%  
32 3% 84%  
33 7% 81%  
34 2% 74%  
35 8% 72%  
36 5% 64%  
37 15% 59% Median
38 27% 44%  
39 16% 17%  
40 0.4% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations