Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 18–25 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 22.4% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.0% 19.1–25.9%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.5%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.2% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.1–11.7%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.2–10.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 40 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–51
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 25 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–31
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 14–25
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 15–21 15–22 14–23 14–24
Slovenská národná strana 15 17 14–21 14–21 13–21 12–22
SME RODINA 11 15 13–18 12–18 12–18 11–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 0–12 0–13 0–13 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0–9 0–10 0–11 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 4% 87%  
39 17% 83%  
40 24% 66% Median
41 8% 42%  
42 10% 33%  
43 4% 23%  
44 13% 19%  
45 2% 7%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.5% 2%  
48 0.1% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 2% 98%  
21 6% 96% Last Result
22 14% 91%  
23 13% 77%  
24 12% 64%  
25 14% 52% Median
26 26% 38%  
27 4% 12%  
28 4% 7%  
29 1.4% 3%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 5% 96%  
17 15% 91% Last Result
18 19% 76%  
19 13% 57% Median
20 25% 44%  
21 10% 19%  
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 5%  
24 0.3% 1.4%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9% Last Result
15 9% 96%  
16 4% 87%  
17 14% 83%  
18 33% 69% Median
19 13% 36%  
20 11% 23%  
21 6% 12%  
22 3% 7%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 2% 98.8%  
14 8% 96%  
15 10% 89% Last Result
16 26% 78%  
17 10% 52% Median
18 7% 42%  
19 22% 35%  
20 1.3% 13%  
21 11% 12%  
22 0.9% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
12 4% 98.9%  
13 22% 95%  
14 13% 73%  
15 23% 60% Median
16 17% 37%  
17 8% 20%  
18 11% 12%  
19 1.0% 1.2%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 0% 75%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 0% 75%  
8 1.0% 75%  
9 21% 74%  
10 26% 53% Median
11 11% 27%  
12 11% 16%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.6% 0.8%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0.3% 60%  
9 20% 59% Median
10 19% 39%  
11 11% 20% Last Result
12 8% 9%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 0% 20%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0% 20%  
7 0% 20%  
8 3% 20%  
9 8% 17%  
10 6% 9%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 89 91 100% 84–97 82–98 82–99 78–103
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 73 29% 67–78 65–78 64–79 62–84
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 64 0% 59–70 57–74 54–75 53–75
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 57 0% 52–63 51–63 51–65 48–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 56 0% 51–59 49–60 49–62 48–65
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 40 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–51

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 99.1%  
80 0.5% 98.5%  
81 0.4% 98%  
82 4% 98%  
83 2% 94%  
84 8% 92%  
85 4% 84%  
86 5% 80%  
87 3% 74%  
88 5% 72%  
89 6% 67% Last Result
90 1.3% 60% Median
91 9% 59%  
92 6% 50%  
93 1.5% 43%  
94 9% 42%  
95 17% 33%  
96 4% 16%  
97 6% 13%  
98 4% 7%  
99 0.6% 3%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.3% 1.2%  
103 0.4% 0.9%  
104 0.1% 0.5%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 0.7% 99.0%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 5% 97%  
66 1.5% 92%  
67 3% 91%  
68 5% 88%  
69 9% 82%  
70 5% 74%  
71 7% 69%  
72 5% 62% Median
73 8% 57%  
74 13% 48%  
75 6% 35% Last Result
76 4% 29% Majority
77 11% 25%  
78 10% 13%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 0.2% 2%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.2% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 1.1%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 0.9% 97%  
56 2% 97%  
57 1.3% 95%  
58 4% 94%  
59 3% 90%  
60 6% 87%  
61 21% 81%  
62 7% 61%  
63 3% 54%  
64 10% 50%  
65 9% 40%  
66 6% 31% Median
67 8% 26%  
68 4% 18%  
69 4% 14%  
70 0.9% 10%  
71 1.3% 9%  
72 1.0% 8%  
73 1.4% 7%  
74 0.6% 5%  
75 5% 5% Last Result
76 0% 0% Majority

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.3%  
50 0.8% 98.8%  
51 6% 98%  
52 3% 92%  
53 2% 89%  
54 4% 86%  
55 13% 82%  
56 14% 69%  
57 5% 55% Median
58 5% 50%  
59 6% 44%  
60 5% 38%  
61 19% 34%  
62 3% 15%  
63 8% 12%  
64 0.7% 4% Last Result
65 2% 3%  
66 0.3% 1.2%  
67 0.1% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 1.0% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 1.4% 95%  
51 5% 93%  
52 6% 88%  
53 7% 82%  
54 6% 75%  
55 17% 69% Median
56 19% 52%  
57 8% 33%  
58 2% 25%  
59 15% 23%  
60 4% 8% Last Result
61 1.4% 4%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0.4% 0.8%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.6%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 4% 87%  
39 17% 83%  
40 24% 66% Median
41 8% 42%  
42 10% 33%  
43 4% 23%  
44 13% 19%  
45 2% 7%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.5% 2%  
48 0.1% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations