Opinion Poll by AKO, 3–8 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 35–41 34–42 32–43 31–44
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 26 24–30 23–31 22–31 22–33
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 19 17–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
Slovenská národná strana 15 16 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 14 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
SME RODINA 11 13 12–15 11–16 11–17 10–17
MOST–HÍD 11 10 8–12 8–12 0–13 0–13
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 9–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–10 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0–8 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 1.1% 97%  
34 3% 96%  
35 36% 92%  
36 4% 56%  
37 7% 52% Median
38 14% 45%  
39 3% 31%  
40 5% 28%  
41 18% 23%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.5% 3%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
22 4% 99.7%  
23 3% 96%  
24 4% 94%  
25 37% 89%  
26 7% 52% Median
27 12% 45%  
28 8% 34%  
29 15% 26%  
30 4% 11%  
31 6% 7%  
32 0.8% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100% Last Result
15 2% 99.3%  
16 4% 97%  
17 7% 93%  
18 12% 85%  
19 57% 74% Median
20 8% 17%  
21 6% 10%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.9% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 4% 98.8%  
15 22% 95% Last Result
16 24% 72% Median
17 14% 48%  
18 21% 34%  
19 9% 13%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 4% 98%  
12 26% 95%  
13 15% 69%  
14 42% 54% Median
15 7% 12%  
16 3% 5%  
17 2% 2% Last Result
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.9%  
11 6% 98.6% Last Result
12 17% 92%  
13 44% 75% Median
14 21% 32%  
15 4% 11%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 16% 96%  
9 10% 80%  
10 29% 70% Median
11 17% 41% Last Result
12 20% 24%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 2% 94%  
9 34% 91%  
10 34% 57% Median
11 11% 23%  
12 9% 12%  
13 1.0% 3%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 0% 49%  
8 4% 49%  
9 35% 45%  
10 9% 11%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 0% 4%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 89 85 99.6% 81–91 81–93 79–94 76–96
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 67 1.1% 62–71 62–73 61–74 59–77
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 63 0% 60–69 58–70 56–70 53–72
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 53 0% 50–57 49–59 48–61 46–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 50 0% 47–54 47–56 46–56 42–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 37 0% 35–41 34–42 32–43 31–44

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.1% 99.6% Majority
77 1.2% 99.4%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 1.3% 97%  
81 13% 95%  
82 8% 82%  
83 4% 73%  
84 3% 69%  
85 18% 66% Median
86 6% 48%  
87 0.7% 42%  
88 1.0% 41%  
89 23% 40% Last Result
90 7% 18%  
91 2% 10%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.4% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.5% 99.2%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 14% 97%  
63 5% 83%  
64 5% 78%  
65 8% 73%  
66 14% 66% Median
67 3% 51%  
68 5% 48%  
69 4% 43%  
70 20% 39%  
71 9% 19%  
72 3% 9%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.3% 3%  
75 0.8% 2% Last Result
76 0.5% 1.1% Majority
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.6% 99.5%  
55 0.3% 98.9%  
56 1.2% 98.5%  
57 2% 97%  
58 0.8% 95%  
59 3% 95%  
60 16% 92%  
61 17% 76%  
62 4% 59%  
63 6% 55% Median
64 6% 49%  
65 6% 42%  
66 5% 36%  
67 1.4% 31%  
68 7% 30%  
69 17% 23%  
70 4% 5%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.1%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 16% 94%  
51 4% 78%  
52 6% 74%  
53 19% 69% Median
54 6% 50%  
55 6% 43%  
56 3% 38%  
57 26% 35%  
58 4% 9%  
59 1.1% 5%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.1% 1.0%  
63 0.7% 0.9%  
64 0% 0.2% Last Result
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.5% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.5%  
44 0.5% 99.3%  
45 1.0% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 13% 96%  
48 22% 82%  
49 9% 60%  
50 3% 51% Median
51 6% 48%  
52 10% 42%  
53 5% 32%  
54 20% 28%  
55 2% 7%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 1.1% 97%  
34 3% 96%  
35 36% 92%  
36 4% 56%  
37 7% 52% Median
38 14% 45%  
39 3% 31%  
40 5% 28%  
41 18% 23%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.5% 3%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations