Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 7–14 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 20.9% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.4% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.4%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–39 31–39 31–41 29–44
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 20 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–27
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 13–22
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
SME RODINA 11 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 10–18
Slovenská národná strana 15 14 11–16 10–16 10–17 10–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 13 12–16 11–16 10–16 10–17
MOST–HÍD 11 10 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 9 0–11 0–11 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0–8 0–9

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 5% 98%  
32 3% 93%  
33 6% 90%  
34 14% 84%  
35 14% 70%  
36 9% 56% Median
37 31% 47%  
38 4% 16%  
39 7% 12%  
40 1.3% 4%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.7%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 8% 98%  
18 14% 90%  
19 25% 76%  
20 17% 51% Median
21 6% 34% Last Result
22 12% 28%  
23 3% 15%  
24 8% 12%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.8% 0.8%  
28 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 8% 97% Last Result
15 20% 89%  
16 8% 68%  
17 30% 61% Median
18 11% 30%  
19 9% 19%  
20 5% 10%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 3% 98%  
14 23% 95%  
15 12% 72%  
16 25% 61% Median
17 12% 36% Last Result
18 9% 24%  
19 12% 15%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 1.0%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.3% Last Result
12 17% 96%  
13 16% 79%  
14 35% 63% Median
15 14% 29%  
16 10% 15%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 5% 99.7%  
11 7% 95%  
12 11% 88%  
13 16% 77%  
14 28% 61% Median
15 20% 33% Last Result
16 10% 13%  
17 1.1% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 5% 96%  
12 20% 92%  
13 24% 71% Median
14 18% 47%  
15 9% 29%  
16 19% 20%  
17 0.7% 1.1%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 3% 87%  
9 23% 84%  
10 40% 62% Median
11 12% 22% Last Result
12 6% 10%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 0% 72%  
8 6% 72%  
9 31% 66% Median
10 18% 35%  
11 15% 17%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 0% 44%  
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0% 44%  
7 0% 44%  
8 9% 44%  
9 16% 35%  
10 12% 19%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 1.1%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 81 78% 74–86 72–87 72–88 69–90
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 64 0.1% 58–68 57–68 56–70 54–72
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 60 0% 52–63 51–65 51–66 46–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 50 0% 46–53 43–54 43–55 41–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 50 0% 45–52 45–54 43–55 41–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–39 31–39 31–41 29–44

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 99.4%  
71 0.9% 98.7%  
72 4% 98%  
73 2% 93%  
74 2% 91%  
75 11% 89%  
76 4% 78% Majority
77 7% 74%  
78 6% 67%  
79 5% 61%  
80 3% 56%  
81 3% 53% Median
82 24% 50%  
83 2% 26%  
84 2% 24%  
85 7% 22%  
86 5% 14%  
87 4% 9%  
88 4% 5%  
89 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 1.4% 99.3%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 5% 97%  
58 5% 92%  
59 3% 88%  
60 9% 85%  
61 8% 76%  
62 8% 68%  
63 8% 60%  
64 4% 52% Median
65 20% 48%  
66 8% 27%  
67 8% 19%  
68 7% 11%  
69 1.2% 5%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1% Last Result
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.2%  
48 0.7% 99.2%  
49 0.3% 98%  
50 0.5% 98%  
51 4% 98%  
52 7% 94%  
53 1.0% 87%  
54 9% 86%  
55 9% 77%  
56 3% 67%  
57 8% 64%  
58 2% 56%  
59 4% 54%  
60 6% 50% Median
61 22% 44%  
62 10% 22%  
63 3% 11%  
64 3% 8%  
65 3% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 4% 98.9%  
44 1.2% 95%  
45 2% 93%  
46 6% 92%  
47 8% 86%  
48 13% 78%  
49 10% 65%  
50 6% 55% Median
51 25% 49%  
52 10% 23%  
53 7% 14%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.3% 1.1%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 12% 95%  
46 7% 83%  
47 5% 76%  
48 6% 72%  
49 6% 65%  
50 10% 59% Median
51 22% 49%  
52 18% 28%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 1.4% 3%  
56 0.4% 2%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 5% 98%  
32 3% 93%  
33 6% 90%  
34 14% 84%  
35 14% 70%  
36 9% 56% Median
37 31% 47%  
38 4% 16%  
39 7% 12%  
40 1.3% 4%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.7%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations