Opinion Poll by AKO, 13–15 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 37–42 35–44 34–44 33–47
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 27 22–29 22–31 21–32 21–34
SME RODINA 11 17 15–19 15–20 14–21 13–22
Slovenská národná strana 15 17 13–19 13–19 13–19 12–20
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 14 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–19
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 14 11–15 11–16 9–16 9–17
MOST–HÍD 11 10 8–12 8–13 0–13 0–13
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 8–11 0–12 0–13 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–10
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 2% 96%  
36 2% 94%  
37 8% 92%  
38 13% 84%  
39 34% 72% Median
40 19% 37%  
41 7% 18%  
42 3% 11%  
43 3% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.6% 2%  
46 0.6% 1.5%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9% Last Result
22 8% 97%  
23 1.0% 89%  
24 7% 88%  
25 5% 81%  
26 8% 76%  
27 19% 68% Median
28 5% 49%  
29 36% 44%  
30 3% 8%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.1% 3%  
33 0.1% 2%  
34 1.3% 1.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 2% 98.7%  
15 8% 96%  
16 14% 88%  
17 47% 74% Median
18 6% 27%  
19 12% 21%  
20 4% 9%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.6%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 17% 98%  
14 11% 81%  
15 7% 70% Last Result
16 12% 63%  
17 32% 51% Median
18 4% 19%  
19 14% 15%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.7%  
11 11% 98%  
12 25% 88%  
13 13% 63%  
14 16% 51% Median
15 28% 35%  
16 3% 7%  
17 1.5% 4% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100%  
10 1.2% 97%  
11 13% 96%  
12 8% 83%  
13 17% 75%  
14 47% 59% Last Result, Median
15 7% 12%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 7% 96%  
9 34% 89%  
10 25% 55% Median
11 18% 31% Last Result
12 5% 12%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0% 91%  
7 0% 91%  
8 7% 91%  
9 13% 83%  
10 48% 70% Median
11 16% 22%  
12 2% 6%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 0% 46%  
8 4% 46%  
9 16% 43%  
10 23% 27%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 2% 6%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.7%  
5 0% 0.7%  
6 0% 0.7%  
7 0% 0.7%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 89 87 99.6% 80–90 78–91 78–92 76–96
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 73 29% 67–76 66–77 64–79 63–83
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 65 0.2% 58–70 58–70 57–71 53–74
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 56 0% 53–60 53–61 50–63 48–65
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 56 0% 50–59 50–59 49–61 47–64
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 0% 37–42 35–44 34–44 33–47

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.6% Majority
77 0.3% 98%  
78 5% 98%  
79 1.2% 92%  
80 2% 91%  
81 8% 89%  
82 7% 81%  
83 4% 74%  
84 8% 70%  
85 6% 62%  
86 2% 56%  
87 23% 54% Median
88 4% 31%  
89 4% 27% Last Result
90 14% 23%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.4% 2%  
94 0.1% 2%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 2% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 0.5% 97%  
66 5% 97%  
67 7% 92%  
68 1.2% 85%  
69 4% 84%  
70 3% 80%  
71 17% 77%  
72 6% 60%  
73 22% 54% Median
74 2% 32%  
75 1.4% 30% Last Result
76 20% 29% Majority
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.7%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.2%  
55 0.1% 99.2%  
56 0.1% 99.1%  
57 3% 99.0%  
58 7% 96%  
59 2% 89%  
60 3% 88%  
61 3% 85%  
62 9% 82%  
63 6% 73%  
64 3% 67%  
65 31% 64%  
66 3% 33% Median
67 2% 29%  
68 5% 28%  
69 4% 22%  
70 16% 19%  
71 0.3% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.0%  
50 0.8% 98%  
51 0.7% 97%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 6% 95%  
54 14% 89%  
55 6% 75%  
56 26% 69% Median
57 13% 43%  
58 11% 30%  
59 7% 19%  
60 5% 12% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 0.9% 4%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 0.9% 98%  
50 7% 97%  
51 8% 90%  
52 7% 81%  
53 3% 74%  
54 3% 71%  
55 17% 68%  
56 21% 51% Median
57 6% 31%  
58 4% 24%  
59 16% 21%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.5% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 2% 96%  
36 2% 94%  
37 8% 92%  
38 13% 84%  
39 34% 72% Median
40 19% 37%  
41 7% 18%  
42 3% 11%  
43 3% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.6% 2%  
46 0.6% 1.5%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations