Opinion Poll by AKO, 27–28 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 35–43 35–43 33–44 32–47
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
SME RODINA 11 17 15–19 14–20 13–20 12–21
Slovenská národná strana 15 15 13–17 13–18 13–19 12–19
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 12 10–15 10–15 10–16 9–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 10–13 9–15 8–15 0–15
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 8 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 98%  
34 1.2% 97%  
35 9% 96%  
36 16% 87%  
37 4% 71%  
38 15% 68%  
39 19% 52% Median
40 9% 34%  
41 5% 24%  
42 2% 19%  
43 13% 17%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.9%  
47 0.7% 0.7%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
22 2% 98.7%  
23 2% 97%  
24 25% 95%  
25 11% 70%  
26 27% 59% Median
27 7% 32%  
28 9% 25%  
29 8% 16%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.4%  
14 5% 96%  
15 17% 91%  
16 18% 74%  
17 33% 56% Median
18 7% 23%  
19 11% 16%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.5% 99.7%  
13 18% 98%  
14 12% 80%  
15 24% 68% Last Result, Median
16 28% 44%  
17 9% 16%  
18 3% 7%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.5%  
13 9% 97%  
14 16% 88% Last Result
15 27% 72% Median
16 9% 45%  
17 24% 36%  
18 8% 12%  
19 2% 4%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 9% 98.9%  
11 9% 89%  
12 36% 80% Median
13 19% 44%  
14 14% 25%  
15 8% 11%  
16 1.3% 3%  
17 0.4% 2% Last Result
18 1.3% 1.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0% 99.2%  
8 3% 99.2%  
9 3% 96%  
10 11% 93%  
11 39% 82% Median
12 26% 42%  
13 9% 17%  
14 3% 8%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 9% 87%  
9 30% 78% Median
10 29% 48%  
11 14% 19% Last Result
12 2% 6%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 0% 59%  
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0% 59%  
7 0% 59%  
8 12% 59% Median
9 29% 47%  
10 10% 18%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 89 86 100% 80–93 80–93 79–94 77–96
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 71 17% 66–76 65–77 64–78 63–81
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 61 0% 58–69 56–69 54–69 52–70
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 55 0% 50–60 49–61 49–61 48–64
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 54 0% 49–59 49–59 48–60 46–62
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 0% 35–43 35–43 33–44 32–47

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.3% 100% Majority
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.3%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 10% 97%  
81 15% 87%  
82 3% 72%  
83 3% 69%  
84 3% 66%  
85 6% 64%  
86 19% 58% Median
87 2% 39%  
88 4% 37%  
89 9% 33% Last Result
90 4% 24%  
91 4% 20%  
92 0.6% 16%  
93 11% 15%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 1.0% 1.4%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 3% 99.2%  
65 5% 97%  
66 13% 92%  
67 7% 79%  
68 5% 71%  
69 9% 66%  
70 6% 57%  
71 13% 52% Median
72 10% 39%  
73 6% 28%  
74 3% 22%  
75 3% 20% Last Result
76 12% 17% Majority
77 3% 5%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.5%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.5%  
53 0.5% 99.3%  
54 2% 98.9%  
55 0.4% 97%  
56 3% 97%  
57 2% 94%  
58 6% 91%  
59 13% 85%  
60 4% 72%  
61 18% 68%  
62 4% 49%  
63 14% 45% Median
64 1.3% 31%  
65 3% 30%  
66 2% 27%  
67 11% 25%  
68 1.5% 14%  
69 12% 13%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.7%  
49 3% 98%  
50 5% 95%  
51 1.1% 89%  
52 3% 88%  
53 18% 85%  
54 14% 67%  
55 5% 54%  
56 17% 48% Median
57 3% 32%  
58 9% 29%  
59 3% 20%  
60 11% 17% Last Result
61 4% 6%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.9% 1.5%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.4%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 10% 97%  
50 10% 87%  
51 3% 76%  
52 13% 73%  
53 9% 60%  
54 13% 51% Median
55 3% 38%  
56 10% 35%  
57 3% 25%  
58 5% 22%  
59 14% 17%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 98%  
34 1.2% 97%  
35 9% 96%  
36 16% 87%  
37 4% 71%  
38 15% 68%  
39 19% 52% Median
40 9% 34%  
41 5% 24%  
42 2% 19%  
43 13% 17%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.9%  
47 0.7% 0.7%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations