Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 1–9 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.3% 18.5–25.2%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.3% 12.1–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.4–15.6% 10.8–16.3%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.5% 9.4–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.8–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 34–41 32–44 31–44 31–46
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 22 21–26 20–27 20–27 18–29
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–24
Slovenská národná strana 15 16 13–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 12–21
SME RODINA 11 16 13–18 13–19 12–19 11–21
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 9–13 9–14 9–14 0–15
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–13
Progresívne Slovensko 0 8 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–10
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.7%  
32 4% 97%  
33 3% 93%  
34 12% 90%  
35 6% 79%  
36 15% 72%  
37 6% 57%  
38 8% 51% Median
39 12% 43%  
40 4% 31%  
41 17% 27%  
42 3% 10%  
43 1.4% 6%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.2% 0.7%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 6% 98%  
21 28% 91% Last Result
22 17% 64% Median
23 14% 47%  
24 14% 33%  
25 6% 19%  
26 6% 13%  
27 5% 7%  
28 0.7% 2%  
29 0.7% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 5% 97%  
16 7% 92%  
17 24% 85% Last Result
18 15% 61% Median
19 19% 46%  
20 20% 27%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 11% 90%  
15 18% 79% Last Result
16 15% 61% Median
17 15% 45%  
18 22% 30%  
19 4% 8%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 4% 98.8%  
14 12% 95% Last Result
15 17% 83%  
16 33% 66% Median
17 12% 33%  
18 12% 20%  
19 6% 8%  
20 0.9% 2%  
21 1.1% 1.5%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100% Last Result
12 2% 99.1%  
13 9% 97%  
14 10% 88%  
15 22% 78%  
16 30% 56% Median
17 6% 26%  
18 14% 21%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0.3% 98%  
9 13% 98%  
10 13% 84%  
11 34% 71% Median
12 21% 37%  
13 10% 17%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.7% 1.2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 0% 67%  
8 4% 67%  
9 19% 64% Median
10 27% 44%  
11 13% 18% Last Result
12 3% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 0% 50%  
8 1.2% 50% Median
9 19% 49%  
10 23% 30%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 0% 9%  
8 1.4% 9%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.6%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 89 86 98.7% 78–92 78–96 77–96 74–98
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 75 69 9% 63–75 63–78 62–80 60–80
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 60 0% 53–69 51–69 51–69 49–70
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 53 0% 49–58 47–60 47–62 45–62
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 53 0% 48–59 47–61 47–62 45–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 38 0% 34–41 32–44 31–44 31–46

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.3%  
76 0.5% 98.7% Majority
77 0.7% 98%  
78 8% 97%  
79 5% 90%  
80 5% 85%  
81 5% 80%  
82 10% 75%  
83 4% 66%  
84 9% 61%  
85 2% 53%  
86 5% 50% Median
87 8% 45%  
88 2% 37%  
89 8% 35% Last Result
90 2% 27%  
91 13% 25%  
92 5% 12%  
93 1.1% 8%  
94 0.4% 7%  
95 1.0% 6%  
96 5% 5%  
97 0.2% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 0.7% 98.8%  
62 1.1% 98%  
63 8% 97%  
64 6% 89%  
65 9% 82%  
66 2% 74%  
67 11% 72%  
68 7% 61%  
69 7% 53%  
70 5% 46% Median
71 9% 41%  
72 3% 32%  
73 4% 29%  
74 1.5% 26%  
75 15% 24% Last Result
76 1.5% 9% Majority
77 2% 7%  
78 1.3% 6%  
79 0.4% 4%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.5%  
50 0.6% 98%  
51 4% 98%  
52 3% 93%  
53 1.2% 90%  
54 2% 89%  
55 1.5% 87%  
56 7% 85%  
57 4% 78%  
58 11% 74%  
59 6% 63%  
60 14% 57%  
61 2% 43%  
62 9% 40%  
63 3% 32% Median
64 5% 28%  
65 1.0% 23%  
66 5% 22%  
67 1.0% 17%  
68 2% 16%  
69 13% 14%  
70 1.0% 1.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.1%  
47 5% 98%  
48 1.3% 93%  
49 10% 92%  
50 6% 82%  
51 9% 76%  
52 13% 67%  
53 8% 54%  
54 10% 46% Median
55 5% 36%  
56 4% 31%  
57 16% 27%  
58 3% 11%  
59 2% 8%  
60 2% 6% Last Result
61 0.2% 4%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.4%  
47 5% 99.1%  
48 7% 94%  
49 12% 87%  
50 2% 75%  
51 11% 73%  
52 8% 62%  
53 5% 54%  
54 8% 49% Median
55 4% 42%  
56 4% 37%  
57 4% 33%  
58 6% 30%  
59 15% 24%  
60 3% 9%  
61 1.3% 5%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.7%  
32 4% 97%  
33 3% 93%  
34 12% 90%  
35 6% 79%  
36 15% 72%  
37 6% 57%  
38 8% 51% Median
39 12% 43%  
40 4% 31%  
41 17% 27%  
42 3% 10%  
43 1.4% 6%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.2% 0.7%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations