Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 16–23 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 12.3% 11.1–13.8% 10.7–14.2% 10.5–14.5% 9.9–15.2%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Progresívne Slovensko 0.0% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 35–43 35–44 34–45 33–46
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 21 19–23 19–25 17–25 17–27
SME RODINA 11 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 14–24
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 18 16–20 15–21 14–21 13–22
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 14 13–16 12–17 12–18 11–19
Slovenská národná strana 15 14 12–16 12–17 11–17 11–19
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
MOST–HÍD 11 10 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–14
Progresívne Slovensko 0 9 0–9 0–10 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.7%  
35 11% 97%  
36 22% 86%  
37 2% 64%  
38 9% 61%  
39 15% 53% Median
40 9% 38%  
41 13% 29%  
42 2% 16%  
43 8% 14%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 2% 97%  
19 13% 96%  
20 25% 83%  
21 16% 58% Last Result, Median
22 24% 42%  
23 9% 18%  
24 4% 9%  
25 4% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 5% 97%  
16 18% 92%  
17 16% 74%  
18 30% 58% Median
19 14% 27%  
20 6% 13%  
21 3% 7%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.4% 2%  
24 1.2% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 3% 98.8%  
15 4% 96%  
16 7% 92%  
17 28% 85% Last Result
18 11% 57% Median
19 17% 46%  
20 24% 29%  
21 4% 5%  
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 5% 98%  
13 11% 92%  
14 38% 82% Last Result, Median
15 25% 44%  
16 10% 19%  
17 5% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.8% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.5%  
12 8% 97%  
13 14% 89%  
14 31% 75% Median
15 30% 44% Last Result
16 8% 14%  
17 4% 6%  
18 0.3% 1.4%  
19 1.0% 1.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 14% 98%  
11 8% 84%  
12 47% 77% Median
13 19% 30%  
14 6% 11%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0% 80%  
7 0% 80%  
8 14% 80%  
9 15% 66%  
10 27% 51% Median
11 15% 25% Last Result
12 6% 10%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 0% 59%  
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0% 59%  
7 0% 59%  
8 1.3% 59%  
9 50% 58% Median
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0% 1.2%  
8 0.1% 1.2%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.7%  
5 0% 0.7%  
6 0% 0.7%  
7 0% 0.7%  
8 0.3% 0.7%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana 89 85 99.8% 80–91 79–93 78–96 76–97
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 70 14% 66–76 66–77 64–80 63–82
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 60 0% 54–67 54–69 53–69 50–70
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 57 0% 51–61 51–62 51–65 50–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 53 0% 50–59 48–59 47–60 45–62
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 39 0% 35–43 35–44 34–45 33–46

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 1.3% 99.8% Majority
77 0.8% 98%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 14% 94%  
81 2% 80%  
82 16% 78%  
83 7% 62%  
84 1.3% 56%  
85 8% 54% Median
86 3% 47%  
87 12% 43%  
88 12% 31%  
89 1.1% 19% Last Result
90 3% 18%  
91 9% 16%  
92 1.4% 7%  
93 0.8% 5%  
94 0.4% 4%  
95 0.1% 4%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.8% 1.1%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 0.5% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 12% 95%  
67 12% 84%  
68 13% 72%  
69 5% 60%  
70 7% 55%  
71 2% 48% Median
72 16% 46%  
73 4% 29%  
74 8% 26%  
75 4% 17% Last Result
76 4% 14% Majority
77 6% 10%  
78 0.3% 4%  
79 0.8% 4%  
80 0.7% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 1.4% 2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.5%  
52 0.3% 99.3%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 11% 97%  
55 0.7% 87%  
56 2% 86%  
57 2% 84%  
58 13% 82%  
59 8% 69%  
60 15% 61%  
61 7% 46%  
62 6% 39%  
63 3% 34% Median
64 5% 30%  
65 4% 25%  
66 8% 21%  
67 4% 13%  
68 2% 10%  
69 7% 8%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 12% 98.9%  
52 4% 87%  
53 7% 83%  
54 14% 76%  
55 8% 62%  
56 3% 54%  
57 17% 51% Median
58 3% 34%  
59 5% 31%  
60 8% 26% Last Result
61 10% 18%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.2% 5%  
64 0.3% 3%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.0% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.4%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 25% 91%  
51 8% 66%  
52 4% 58%  
53 11% 54% Median
54 15% 43%  
55 9% 27%  
56 2% 18%  
57 5% 17%  
58 1.3% 11%  
59 7% 10%  
60 0.9% 3%  
61 0.2% 2%  
62 1.5% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.7%  
35 11% 97%  
36 22% 86%  
37 2% 64%  
38 9% 61%  
39 15% 53% Median
40 9% 38%  
41 13% 29%  
42 2% 16%  
43 8% 14%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations