Opinion Poll by AKO, 8–12 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–26.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 23 21–26 20–27 20–27 19–29
SME RODINA 11 18 15–20 15–20 14–21 13–22
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 11–15 11–15 10–15 9–17
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 11 10–13 10–14 9–15 9–16
MOST–HÍD 11 9 8–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 8–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 12% 92%  
34 10% 80%  
35 10% 70%  
36 21% 60% Median
37 17% 38%  
38 12% 22%  
39 6% 10%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.3%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 8% 99.0%  
21 6% 91% Last Result
22 12% 85%  
23 31% 73% Median
24 17% 42%  
25 11% 26%  
26 10% 15%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.2%  
15 9% 97%  
16 16% 88%  
17 16% 72%  
18 35% 56% Median
19 6% 20%  
20 12% 14%  
21 1.3% 3%  
22 1.0% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 8% 99.1%  
14 14% 91%  
15 20% 77%  
16 24% 57% Median
17 21% 33% Last Result
18 6% 11%  
19 4% 6%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 5% 99.6%  
13 20% 95%  
14 25% 76% Last Result
15 18% 51% Median
16 18% 32%  
17 10% 15%  
18 3% 5%  
19 0.9% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 14% 96%  
12 29% 83%  
13 23% 54% Median
14 20% 31%  
15 8% 10% Last Result
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 15% 97%  
11 39% 83% Median
12 15% 43%  
13 19% 28%  
14 6% 9%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 0% 92%  
8 14% 92%  
9 29% 79% Median
10 23% 50%  
11 16% 27% Last Result
12 7% 11%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 11% 95%  
9 20% 83%  
10 38% 63% Median
11 19% 25%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana 89 80 96% 77–85 76–88 75–89 74–91
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 66 0.3% 62–69 61–72 59–73 58–75
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 58 0% 54–61 53–62 52–63 48–65
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 53 0% 49–56 48–59 48–59 46–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 48 0% 45–51 44–53 44–53 42–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 1.4% 99.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96% Majority
77 7% 90%  
78 14% 83%  
79 9% 70%  
80 11% 61%  
81 10% 50%  
82 7% 40% Median
83 20% 33%  
84 2% 12%  
85 1.1% 10%  
86 2% 9%  
87 1.1% 7%  
88 2% 6%  
89 4% 5% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 5% 96%  
62 4% 91%  
63 10% 88%  
64 8% 77%  
65 14% 70%  
66 14% 55%  
67 10% 41% Median
68 10% 31%  
69 11% 21%  
70 2% 9%  
71 1.0% 8%  
72 2% 7%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
76 0.1% 0.3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 0.1% 99.3%  
50 0.4% 99.2%  
51 0.5% 98.8%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 96%  
54 3% 91%  
55 9% 87%  
56 9% 79%  
57 13% 69%  
58 20% 57% Median
59 12% 37%  
60 14% 25%  
61 4% 11%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.8% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 1.1% 99.2%  
48 7% 98%  
49 4% 91%  
50 6% 87%  
51 9% 80%  
52 7% 71%  
53 17% 64%  
54 9% 46% Median
55 15% 37%  
56 12% 22%  
57 2% 10%  
58 1.5% 7%  
59 4% 6%  
60 2% 2% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 1.4% 99.0%  
44 4% 98%  
45 4% 93%  
46 11% 90%  
47 13% 78%  
48 16% 65%  
49 15% 49% Median
50 12% 34%  
51 12% 22%  
52 3% 9%  
53 4% 7%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.1%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 5% 97%  
33 12% 92%  
34 10% 80%  
35 10% 70%  
36 21% 60% Median
37 17% 38%  
38 12% 22%  
39 6% 10%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.3%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations