Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 21–26 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 21.2% 19.7–23.0% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.1–24.7%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.2–13.5% 9.9–13.9% 9.4–14.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 11.2% 10.0–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.4–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 20 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 15–24
SME RODINA 11 16 14–18 13–18 13–20 12–20
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 16 14–19 13–19 13–19 12–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 12–17 12–17 11–17 10–18
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 9–13 9–13 0–13 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 9 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 5% 97%  
33 6% 91%  
34 11% 85%  
35 19% 74%  
36 19% 55% Median
37 13% 36%  
38 5% 23%  
39 12% 18%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.0%  
17 8% 96%  
18 16% 87%  
19 12% 72%  
20 19% 60% Median
21 25% 41%  
22 9% 16%  
23 5% 7%  
24 1.0% 1.5%  
25 0.2% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 12% 96%  
17 13% 84%  
18 23% 71% Median
19 19% 48%  
20 15% 29%  
21 8% 14% Last Result
22 4% 6%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.7%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100% Last Result
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 7% 98.8%  
14 8% 92%  
15 20% 84%  
16 34% 64% Median
17 16% 30%  
18 9% 14%  
19 2% 4%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 5% 98.5%  
14 19% 94%  
15 16% 75%  
16 26% 58% Median
17 15% 32%  
18 7% 17%  
19 8% 10%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 9% 97%  
13 16% 88%  
14 20% 72%  
15 22% 52% Median
16 17% 30%  
17 11% 13% Last Result
18 0.9% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 7% 99.3%  
11 13% 92%  
12 23% 80%  
13 33% 57% Median
14 15% 24%  
15 6% 9% Last Result
16 3% 3%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0.5% 96%  
9 13% 96%  
10 25% 82%  
11 27% 57% Median
12 18% 30%  
13 10% 12%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 0% 67%  
8 6% 67%  
9 30% 61% Median
10 22% 30%  
11 7% 9% Last Result
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 85 99.7% 79–88 79–90 77–92 76–94
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 64 0.1% 61–69 59–70 58–71 56–72
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 55 0% 49–60 49–60 48–62 45–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 51 0% 48–56 47–57 46–58 45–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 49 0% 45–52 44–53 43–54 41–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.7% Majority
77 2% 98.9%  
78 2% 97%  
79 7% 95%  
80 7% 88%  
81 5% 82%  
82 8% 77%  
83 9% 69%  
84 10% 60%  
85 13% 50% Median
86 13% 38%  
87 9% 25%  
88 6% 16%  
89 3% 10% Last Result
90 2% 7%  
91 1.1% 5%  
92 1.4% 4%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 95%  
61 8% 91%  
62 6% 83%  
63 11% 77%  
64 22% 66%  
65 15% 44% Median
66 6% 30%  
67 9% 23%  
68 4% 14%  
69 2% 10%  
70 4% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.7%  
46 0.5% 99.3%  
47 0.5% 98.9%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 13% 97%  
50 7% 84%  
51 3% 77%  
52 3% 74%  
53 7% 71%  
54 9% 64%  
55 7% 55%  
56 5% 48%  
57 8% 43%  
58 14% 36% Median
59 9% 22%  
60 10% 13%  
61 0.5% 3%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.0%  
47 4% 97%  
48 4% 93%  
49 7% 89%  
50 10% 82%  
51 22% 71%  
52 16% 49% Median
53 9% 33%  
54 6% 24%  
55 8% 18%  
56 3% 10%  
57 4% 7%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.3% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.9% 99.4%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 4% 97%  
45 10% 93%  
46 7% 83%  
47 5% 77%  
48 16% 71%  
49 22% 55% Median
50 12% 33%  
51 10% 21%  
52 3% 11%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 5% 97%  
33 6% 91%  
34 11% 85%  
35 19% 74%  
36 19% 55% Median
37 13% 36%  
38 5% 23%  
39 12% 18%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations