Opinion Poll by AKO, 1–2 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
SME RODINA 6.6% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 31 28–33 28–35 27–35 26–37
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 23 21–25 20–27 20–27 18–28
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 22 18–22 18–23 17–24 16–25
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 17–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
SME RODINA 11 18 15–19 15–19 14–19 13–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 11–14 10–14 10–14 9–16
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.9%  
28 8% 97%  
29 26% 89%  
30 6% 63%  
31 20% 57% Median
32 23% 37%  
33 7% 14%  
34 2% 7%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 98.6%  
20 7% 98%  
21 7% 90%  
22 32% 84%  
23 10% 51% Median
24 24% 42%  
25 11% 18%  
26 2% 7%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.8%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 12% 96%  
19 9% 84%  
20 8% 75%  
21 15% 67% Last Result
22 44% 52% Median
23 4% 8%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
15 2% 99.5%  
16 6% 97%  
17 23% 92%  
18 31% 69% Median
19 7% 37%  
20 24% 31%  
21 3% 6%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100% Last Result
12 0% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 2% 98%  
15 18% 96%  
16 12% 78%  
17 14% 67%  
18 32% 53% Median
19 18% 20%  
20 0.7% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.6%  
12 18% 94%  
13 21% 75%  
14 33% 54% Median
15 12% 20%  
16 7% 8%  
17 1.1% 2% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 22% 92%  
12 20% 70%  
13 35% 50% Median
14 12% 15%  
15 2% 2% Last Result
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 38% 98%  
10 18% 61% Median
11 17% 43%  
12 19% 27%  
13 5% 7%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 0.1% 45%  
8 32% 45%  
9 7% 13%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 79 77% 74–82 73–83 73–84 70–85
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 60 0% 56–63 55–64 55–65 53–68
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 48 0% 44–50 44–51 43–53 41–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 47 0% 42–52 41–52 40–53 40–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 44 0% 39–46 39–47 39–47 37–50
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 31 0% 28–33 28–35 27–35 26–37

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 0.9% 99.4%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 3% 98%  
74 5% 95%  
75 13% 90%  
76 12% 77% Majority
77 6% 65%  
78 6% 58%  
79 5% 53%  
80 8% 48% Median
81 24% 40%  
82 7% 16%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 0.8% 98.9%  
55 5% 98%  
56 6% 93%  
57 6% 87%  
58 12% 81%  
59 13% 69%  
60 11% 56%  
61 5% 45%  
62 9% 40% Median
63 23% 31%  
64 5% 9%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.2% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.4%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 8% 97%  
45 8% 89%  
46 11% 81%  
47 12% 70%  
48 19% 58%  
49 5% 39% Median
50 25% 34%  
51 4% 9%  
52 1.0% 5%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.2% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.5% 0.5%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.7%  
41 6% 97%  
42 4% 91%  
43 2% 87%  
44 6% 85% Median
45 26% 79%  
46 2% 53%  
47 11% 51%  
48 10% 40%  
49 5% 30%  
50 6% 25%  
51 4% 19%  
52 11% 15%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.5% 1.4%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.3% 99.8%  
38 0.9% 98.5%  
39 8% 98%  
40 10% 90%  
41 15% 79%  
42 7% 64%  
43 4% 57%  
44 17% 53% Median
45 26% 36%  
46 2% 10%  
47 6% 8%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.4% 0.4%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.9%  
28 8% 97%  
29 26% 89%  
30 6% 63%  
31 20% 57% Median
32 23% 37%  
33 7% 14%  
34 2% 7%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations