Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 8–14 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.5–15.9%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 33 29–36 28–37 28–37 27–39
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 22 20–25 19–26 19–26 17–28
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–23
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 17 14–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
SME RODINA 11 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–19
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–10 0–10 0–11 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–9

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.4% 99.6%  
28 4% 98%  
29 5% 94%  
30 10% 90%  
31 9% 79%  
32 18% 70%  
33 19% 52% Median
34 14% 34%  
35 8% 20%  
36 2% 11%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 5% 98%  
20 12% 92%  
21 14% 80%  
22 19% 66% Median
23 19% 48%  
24 9% 29%  
25 13% 19%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.0% 2%  
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
15 9% 99.3%  
16 4% 91%  
17 11% 87%  
18 33% 76% Median
19 13% 43%  
20 16% 30%  
21 8% 14%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.6% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 8% 98%  
15 15% 89%  
16 11% 74%  
17 26% 63% Median
18 18% 36%  
19 12% 18%  
20 4% 6%  
21 1.4% 3% Last Result
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.3%  
13 13% 95%  
14 16% 82%  
15 25% 67% Median
16 24% 42%  
17 13% 18% Last Result
18 3% 5%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
12 5% 99.4%  
13 7% 95%  
14 18% 88%  
15 31% 69% Median
16 23% 39%  
17 11% 16%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 15% 98%  
12 16% 83%  
13 29% 67% Median
14 21% 37%  
15 7% 16% Last Result
16 5% 9%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 1.1%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0% 99.6%  
8 0.1% 99.6%  
9 4% 99.5%  
10 11% 95%  
11 18% 85%  
12 25% 66% Median
13 19% 42%  
14 14% 23%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 0% 39%  
2 0% 39%  
3 0% 39%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 0% 39%  
8 7% 39%  
9 22% 32%  
10 8% 10%  
11 2% 3% Last Result
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 3% 6%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 79 86% 74–85 73–86 72–87 71–88
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 61 0% 56–66 55–67 54–67 53–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 49 0% 45–55 43–56 43–57 41–59
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 48 0% 44–52 42–53 42–53 40–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 46 0% 42–50 41–51 40–51 39–53
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 33 0% 29–36 28–37 28–37 27–39

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 3% 92%  
75 4% 89%  
76 7% 86% Majority
77 6% 79%  
78 14% 72%  
79 10% 59% Median
80 16% 49%  
81 7% 33%  
82 6% 25%  
83 3% 19%  
84 4% 16%  
85 6% 12%  
86 1.2% 6%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.9% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.6%  
54 2% 98.9%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 93%  
57 3% 90%  
58 10% 87%  
59 7% 77%  
60 18% 70%  
61 13% 52% Median
62 10% 39%  
63 7% 29%  
64 6% 21%  
65 5% 16%  
66 4% 11%  
67 5% 7%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.6%  
42 0.9% 98.8%  
43 3% 98%  
44 2% 94%  
45 10% 92%  
46 13% 82% Median
47 7% 69%  
48 9% 62%  
49 6% 53%  
50 8% 48%  
51 8% 40%  
52 9% 32%  
53 7% 23%  
54 6% 16%  
55 4% 10%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.4%  
42 4% 98.6%  
43 3% 95%  
44 6% 91%  
45 6% 85%  
46 8% 79%  
47 21% 71%  
48 13% 50% Median
49 12% 38%  
50 8% 26%  
51 5% 18%  
52 6% 13%  
53 5% 7%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.7%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 5% 97%  
42 5% 92%  
43 11% 87%  
44 7% 77%  
45 18% 70%  
46 17% 52% Median
47 9% 35%  
48 9% 26%  
49 5% 17%  
50 4% 12%  
51 6% 8%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.9% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.4% 99.6%  
28 4% 98%  
29 5% 94%  
30 10% 90%  
31 9% 79%  
32 18% 70%  
33 19% 52% Median
34 14% 34%  
35 8% 20%  
36 2% 11%  
37 7% 9%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations