Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 8–14 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 28.3% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.3% |
| Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| SME RODINA | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| MOST–HÍD | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 33 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 27–39 |
| Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 17–28 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 14 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–23 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 21 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti | 17 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| SME RODINA | 11 | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 15 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| MOST–HÍD | 11 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 5% | 94% | |
| 30 | 10% | 90% | |
| 31 | 9% | 79% | |
| 32 | 18% | 70% | |
| 33 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 34% | |
| 35 | 8% | 20% | |
| 36 | 2% | 11% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 12% | 92% | |
| 21 | 14% | 80% | |
| 22 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 48% | |
| 24 | 9% | 29% | |
| 25 | 13% | 19% | |
| 26 | 4% | 6% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 15 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 4% | 91% | |
| 17 | 11% | 87% | |
| 18 | 33% | 76% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 43% | |
| 20 | 16% | 30% | |
| 21 | 8% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 8% | 98% | |
| 15 | 15% | 89% | |
| 16 | 11% | 74% | |
| 17 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 36% | |
| 19 | 12% | 18% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 13% | 95% | |
| 14 | 16% | 82% | |
| 15 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 42% | |
| 17 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 12 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 7% | 95% | |
| 14 | 18% | 88% | |
| 15 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 16 | 23% | 39% | |
| 17 | 11% | 16% | |
| 18 | 3% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 15% | 98% | |
| 12 | 16% | 83% | |
| 13 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 37% | |
| 15 | 7% | 16% | Last Result |
| 16 | 5% | 9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 11% | 95% | |
| 11 | 18% | 85% | |
| 12 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 42% | |
| 14 | 14% | 23% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0% | 39% | |
| 8 | 7% | 39% | |
| 9 | 22% | 32% | |
| 10 | 8% | 10% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 6% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 89 | 79 | 86% | 74–85 | 73–86 | 72–87 | 71–88 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 75 | 61 | 0% | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–67 | 53–69 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD | 75 | 49 | 0% | 45–55 | 43–56 | 43–57 | 41–59 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 60 | 48 | 0% | 44–52 | 42–53 | 42–53 | 40–55 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 64 | 46 | 0% | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–51 | 39–53 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 49 | 33 | 0% | 29–36 | 28–37 | 28–37 | 27–39 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 4% | 96% | |
| 74 | 3% | 92% | |
| 75 | 4% | 89% | |
| 76 | 7% | 86% | Majority |
| 77 | 6% | 79% | |
| 78 | 14% | 72% | |
| 79 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 80 | 16% | 49% | |
| 81 | 7% | 33% | |
| 82 | 6% | 25% | |
| 83 | 3% | 19% | |
| 84 | 4% | 16% | |
| 85 | 6% | 12% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 87 | 3% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 93% | |
| 57 | 3% | 90% | |
| 58 | 10% | 87% | |
| 59 | 7% | 77% | |
| 60 | 18% | 70% | |
| 61 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 62 | 10% | 39% | |
| 63 | 7% | 29% | |
| 64 | 6% | 21% | |
| 65 | 5% | 16% | |
| 66 | 4% | 11% | |
| 67 | 5% | 7% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 2% | 94% | |
| 45 | 10% | 92% | |
| 46 | 13% | 82% | Median |
| 47 | 7% | 69% | |
| 48 | 9% | 62% | |
| 49 | 6% | 53% | |
| 50 | 8% | 48% | |
| 51 | 8% | 40% | |
| 52 | 9% | 32% | |
| 53 | 7% | 23% | |
| 54 | 6% | 16% | |
| 55 | 4% | 10% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 3% | 95% | |
| 44 | 6% | 91% | |
| 45 | 6% | 85% | |
| 46 | 8% | 79% | |
| 47 | 21% | 71% | |
| 48 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 49 | 12% | 38% | |
| 50 | 8% | 26% | |
| 51 | 5% | 18% | |
| 52 | 6% | 13% | |
| 53 | 5% | 7% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 5% | 97% | |
| 42 | 5% | 92% | |
| 43 | 11% | 87% | |
| 44 | 7% | 77% | |
| 45 | 18% | 70% | |
| 46 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 47 | 9% | 35% | |
| 48 | 9% | 26% | |
| 49 | 5% | 17% | |
| 50 | 4% | 12% | |
| 51 | 6% | 8% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 5% | 94% | |
| 30 | 10% | 90% | |
| 31 | 9% | 79% | |
| 32 | 18% | 70% | |
| 33 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 34% | |
| 35 | 8% | 20% | |
| 36 | 2% | 11% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FOCUS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1026
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.87%