Opinion Poll by AKO, 29 April–6 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
SME RODINA 6.6% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 23 20–25 19–25 19–26 17–27
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 22 19–24 19–25 18–25 17–26
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 20 19–24 18–25 18–25 16–25
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
SME RODINA 11 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 10–17
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 10–15 10–15 10–15 10–17
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 10 9–13 9–13 8–13 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 1.4% 99.5%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92%  
29 9% 81%  
30 24% 72% Median
31 20% 48%  
32 12% 28%  
33 10% 16%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.6% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.4%  
19 4% 98%  
20 12% 94%  
21 12% 82%  
22 19% 70%  
23 32% 51% Median
24 8% 19%  
25 9% 12%  
26 1.0% 3%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.9%  
18 3% 98%  
19 12% 96%  
20 10% 84%  
21 12% 74%  
22 29% 62% Median
23 20% 33%  
24 7% 12%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.5%  
18 5% 98%  
19 8% 93%  
20 40% 86% Median
21 14% 46% Last Result
22 14% 32%  
23 7% 18%  
24 4% 11%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 5% 99.3%  
13 20% 95%  
14 18% 75%  
15 30% 57% Median
16 20% 26%  
17 4% 6% Last Result
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 8% 96% Last Result
12 8% 88%  
13 45% 80% Median
14 21% 35%  
15 10% 14%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.1% 1.4%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 11% 99.7%  
11 14% 89%  
12 22% 75%  
13 32% 53% Median
14 8% 21%  
15 11% 12% Last Result
16 0.9% 2%  
17 0.7% 0.7%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 0% 99.3%  
5 0% 99.3%  
6 0% 99.3%  
7 0% 99.3%  
8 3% 99.3%  
9 20% 96%  
10 30% 76% Median
11 20% 46%  
12 11% 26%  
13 14% 15%  
14 1.0% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 0% 44%  
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0% 44%  
7 0% 44%  
8 20% 44%  
9 17% 25%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 79 74% 74–83 74–83 72–84 70–86
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 56 0% 53–60 52–61 51–63 49–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 46 0% 42–51 42–52 41–54 40–55
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 43 0% 39–45 39–47 38–49 37–50
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 44 0% 41–47 40–47 39–48 38–50
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 0.9% 97%  
74 10% 96%  
75 12% 87%  
76 5% 74% Majority
77 6% 69%  
78 11% 63%  
79 9% 52% Median
80 20% 43%  
81 1.4% 23%  
82 10% 21%  
83 9% 12%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.4%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.1%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 6% 97%  
53 9% 91%  
54 12% 82%  
55 11% 70%  
56 12% 59% Median
57 20% 47%  
58 10% 27%  
59 8% 18%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 1.0% 98%  
42 8% 97%  
43 6% 89% Median
44 16% 83%  
45 15% 67%  
46 3% 52%  
47 4% 49%  
48 13% 46%  
49 5% 33%  
50 7% 28%  
51 12% 21%  
52 4% 9%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.0%  
39 6% 96%  
40 9% 90%  
41 9% 81%  
42 11% 72%  
43 17% 62% Median
44 19% 44%  
45 17% 26%  
46 2% 9%  
47 3% 7%  
48 0.9% 4%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 7% 97%  
41 11% 90%  
42 10% 79%  
43 16% 69% Median
44 22% 54%  
45 13% 32%  
46 5% 18%  
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 1.4% 99.5%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92%  
29 9% 81%  
30 24% 72% Median
31 20% 48%  
32 12% 28%  
33 10% 16%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.6% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations