Opinion Poll by AKO, 8–10 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
SME RODINA 6.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 30 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 21 19–24 19–24 18–25 17–27
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 22 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–26
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 21 19–24 18–24 18–25 17–26
SME RODINA 11 16 14–17 13–18 13–19 12–20
Slovenská národná strana 15 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 10–17
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 8–15
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.2%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92%  
29 17% 81%  
30 15% 64% Median
31 19% 49%  
32 18% 30%  
33 6% 13%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.8% 1.5%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 4% 99.0%  
19 8% 95%  
20 18% 87%  
21 23% 70% Median
22 20% 47%  
23 16% 27%  
24 6% 10%  
25 3% 5%  
26 0.7% 1.5%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9%  
18 4% 98%  
19 11% 94%  
20 8% 83%  
21 15% 76%  
22 35% 61% Median
23 13% 25%  
24 6% 12%  
25 2% 6%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 4% 98%  
19 9% 93%  
20 26% 84%  
21 11% 58% Last Result, Median
22 12% 47%  
23 20% 35%  
24 11% 15%  
25 2% 4%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100% Last Result
12 1.1% 99.5%  
13 6% 98%  
14 15% 93%  
15 18% 77%  
16 24% 60% Median
17 26% 36%  
18 5% 10%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 14% 95%  
12 17% 81%  
13 31% 64% Median
14 13% 33%  
15 18% 21% Last Result
16 2% 3%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 21% 96%  
11 16% 76%  
12 30% 60% Median
13 18% 30%  
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 1.2% 98%  
9 19% 97%  
10 21% 78%  
11 35% 57% Median
12 18% 22%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.6% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 0% 49%  
8 24% 49%  
9 18% 24%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 81 95% 76–86 76–86 74–88 72–90
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 59 0% 55–63 55–65 54–65 52–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 48 0% 43–52 42–53 42–54 39–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 47 0% 42–49 42–50 41–52 40–53
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 43 0% 40–46 40–48 39–48 38–50
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 25–36

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.2%  
74 1.3% 98.8%  
75 2% 97%  
76 8% 95% Majority
77 12% 87%  
78 8% 75%  
79 7% 67%  
80 7% 60% Median
81 11% 53%  
82 12% 42%  
83 13% 30%  
84 4% 17%  
85 2% 13%  
86 7% 11%  
87 0.5% 4%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.2% 2% Last Result
90 1.0% 1.3%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.4%  
54 3% 98.7%  
55 10% 96%  
56 9% 86%  
57 8% 77%  
58 7% 69%  
59 16% 62% Median
60 11% 45%  
61 17% 35%  
62 6% 18%  
63 4% 12%  
64 3% 8%  
65 4% 5%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.4%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95% Median
44 11% 89%  
45 18% 78%  
46 3% 60%  
47 4% 57%  
48 11% 53%  
49 9% 42%  
50 8% 33%  
51 11% 25%  
52 4% 14%  
53 7% 10%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.3%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 8% 97%  
43 8% 89%  
44 13% 81%  
45 11% 68%  
46 7% 57% Median
47 11% 50%  
48 23% 39%  
49 7% 17%  
50 6% 10%  
51 0.8% 4%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.6%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 12% 96%  
41 7% 84%  
42 14% 77%  
43 14% 63% Median
44 13% 50%  
45 24% 36%  
46 3% 13%  
47 4% 10%  
48 5% 6%  
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.2%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92%  
29 17% 81%  
30 15% 64% Median
31 19% 49%  
32 18% 30%  
33 6% 13%  
34 5% 6%  
35 0.8% 1.5%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations