Opinion Poll by AKO, 28–31 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
SME RODINA 6.6% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 29 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–35
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 29 27–32 26–32 25–34 24–35
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 25 22–26 21–27 21–28 19–29
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 18 15–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–18 11–18
SME RODINA 11 11 10–13 10–14 10–15 9–16
Slovenská národná strana 15 12 11–14 10–14 9–14 8–15
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 10 9–12 8–12 0–12 0–14
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–8 0–9 0–9 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 36% 86% Median
30 16% 50%  
31 13% 34%  
32 8% 21%  
33 10% 13%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.2%  
26 4% 97%  
27 13% 94%  
28 13% 81%  
29 27% 68% Median
30 11% 41%  
31 15% 30%  
32 10% 15%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.7%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.5% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.5%  
21 4% 98%  
22 14% 94%  
23 13% 81%  
24 15% 68%  
25 25% 53% Median
26 19% 29%  
27 6% 10%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 11% 98%  
16 15% 87%  
17 18% 72%  
18 19% 54% Median
19 26% 34%  
20 4% 8%  
21 4% 5% Last Result
22 0.6% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 3% 99.6%  
12 13% 96%  
13 16% 84%  
14 23% 68% Median
15 29% 45%  
16 11% 16%  
17 2% 5%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 1.2% 99.5%  
10 30% 98%  
11 28% 68% Last Result, Median
12 26% 40%  
13 6% 14%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.3%  
10 6% 97%  
11 20% 90%  
12 21% 70% Median
13 37% 49%  
14 11% 13%  
15 1.5% 2% Last Result
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 5% 97%  
9 30% 92%  
10 36% 62% Median
11 15% 25%  
12 8% 10%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 0% 16%  
8 8% 16%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 77 79% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–86
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 53 0% 50–57 50–59 49–59 47–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 43 0% 40–49 39–49 38–50 37–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 42 0% 40–46 39–47 38–47 36–48
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 41 0% 39–45 38–45 38–46 36–48
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 29 0% 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–35

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.4%  
72 4% 98.9%  
73 3% 95%  
74 7% 92%  
75 7% 86%  
76 7% 79% Majority
77 26% 72% Median
78 4% 47%  
79 13% 43%  
80 7% 30%  
81 13% 23%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.5% 2%  
86 1.0% 1.3%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.6%  
48 0.7% 99.4%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 10% 96%  
51 10% 87%  
52 22% 77% Median
53 11% 55%  
54 7% 44%  
55 14% 37%  
56 9% 23%  
57 4% 14%  
58 2% 9%  
59 5% 8%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 1.0% 1.3%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 3% 97%  
40 10% 94%  
41 7% 84% Median
42 25% 78%  
43 14% 53%  
44 4% 39%  
45 9% 34%  
46 4% 25%  
47 7% 21%  
48 5% 15%  
49 6% 10%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.5% 1.4%  
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.2%  
38 3% 98%  
39 4% 95%  
40 18% 91%  
41 8% 73% Median
42 27% 65%  
43 14% 38%  
44 5% 23%  
45 9% 19%  
46 3% 10%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.4%  
38 4% 98%  
39 27% 94%  
40 12% 67% Median
41 9% 55%  
42 14% 46%  
43 12% 32%  
44 7% 19%  
45 8% 13%  
46 2% 5%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 36% 86% Median
30 16% 50%  
31 13% 34%  
32 8% 21%  
33 10% 13%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations