Opinion Poll by FOCUS, 1–11 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 28.3% 19.7% 18.1–21.3% 17.7–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.6–23.0%
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0.0% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sloboda a Solidarita 12.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.9% 7.5% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.8%
SME RODINA 6.6% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.6%
Slovenská národná strana 8.6% 7.2% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 11.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
MOST–HÍD 6.5% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 4.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 31–37 30–37 29–38 27–39
Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 31 28–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 14 21 19–23 18–24 18–25 17–27
Sloboda a Solidarita 21 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 10–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 9–17
SME RODINA 11 12 11–15 10–15 10–15 9–16
Slovenská národná strana 15 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–17
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti 17 11 10–13 9–14 9–14 0–15
MOST–HÍD 11 0 0–9 0–9 0–10 0–10
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0–8 0–9

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.1%  
29 1.3% 98%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93%  
32 10% 85%  
33 11% 75%  
34 16% 63% Median
35 16% 48%  
36 14% 32%  
37 14% 18%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.1% 1.4%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko–SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.8%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 2% 97%  
28 19% 95%  
29 10% 75%  
30 12% 65%  
31 26% 53% Median
32 13% 28%  
33 6% 14%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 6% 98.8%  
19 12% 93%  
20 28% 81%  
21 15% 54% Median
22 12% 38%  
23 18% 26%  
24 4% 8%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 3% 98.7%  
12 13% 95%  
13 16% 83%  
14 35% 66% Median
15 21% 31%  
16 7% 10%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.1%  
11 10% 96%  
12 29% 86%  
13 24% 57% Median
14 27% 33%  
15 4% 7%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.4% 0.7%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 6% 98.8%  
11 18% 93% Last Result
12 33% 76% Median
13 22% 43%  
14 9% 21%  
15 11% 12%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 7% 98%  
11 26% 91%  
12 32% 65% Median
13 14% 33%  
14 12% 19%  
15 5% 7% Last Result
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0.4% 99.4%  
9 7% 99.1%  
10 16% 92%  
11 29% 76% Median
12 17% 47%  
13 24% 30%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.0% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MOST–HÍD page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 0% 16%  
8 5% 16%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0.7% 3%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 89 81 91% 76–83 73–85 72–85 71–87
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 75 59 0% 55–62 53–63 53–64 51–67
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD 75 47 0% 44–52 43–54 42–55 40–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 60 47 0% 43–50 43–50 41–51 39–54
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 64 47 0% 43–49 42–50 40–51 39–52
SMER–sociálna demokracia 49 34 0% 31–37 30–37 29–38 27–39

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.8%  
72 3% 99.3%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 10% 91% Majority
77 5% 81%  
78 10% 76%  
79 5% 67% Median
80 9% 62%  
81 21% 52%  
82 15% 31%  
83 9% 17%  
84 2% 8%  
85 4% 6%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 1.0% 1.4%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 2% 99.3%  
53 3% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 5% 91%  
56 9% 86%  
57 8% 77%  
58 12% 69% Median
59 14% 57%  
60 12% 43%  
61 15% 31%  
62 11% 16%  
63 2% 5%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – MOST–HÍD

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.4%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 97%  
44 3% 92%  
45 12% 89%  
46 10% 77% Median
47 22% 67%  
48 11% 45%  
49 13% 34%  
50 4% 21%  
51 6% 16%  
52 2% 10%  
53 0.7% 9%  
54 4% 8%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.1%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 1.0% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 11% 95%  
44 8% 84%  
45 14% 76%  
46 9% 62% Median
47 7% 54%  
48 20% 46%  
49 14% 26%  
50 9% 12%  
51 0.8% 3%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.2%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 98.5%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 95%  
43 7% 91%  
44 4% 84%  
45 16% 81%  
46 11% 65% Median
47 23% 54%  
48 11% 30%  
49 13% 20%  
50 3% 7%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.1%  
29 1.3% 98%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93%  
32 10% 85%  
33 11% 75%  
34 16% 63% Median
35 16% 48%  
36 14% 32%  
37 14% 18%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.1% 1.4%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations