Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, 1–11 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.8% | 31.4–36.2% | 30.7–36.9% | 30.2–37.6% | 29.1–38.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 30.1% | 27.8–32.5% | 27.2–33.2% | 26.6–33.8% | 25.6–35.0% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.6–13.8% | 9.2–14.2% | 8.5–15.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.6–6.9% | 4.3–7.3% | 4.0–7.7% | 3.6–8.4% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.5–5.4% | 2.1–6.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–5.0% | 2.3–5.3% | 2.0–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 9% | 96% | |
| 23 | 29% | 87% | |
| 24 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 22% | 33% | |
| 26 | 8% | 11% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 20 | 19% | 92% | |
| 21 | 30% | 73% | Median |
| 22 | 26% | 43% | |
| 23 | 12% | 17% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 29% | 94% | |
| 8 | 41% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 24% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 41% | 97% | |
| 4 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 92% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 29% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 24% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 9% | 96% | |
| 23 | 29% | 87% | |
| 24 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 22% | 33% | |
| 26 | 8% | 11% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 20 | 19% | 92% | |
| 21 | 30% | 73% | Median |
| 22 | 26% | 43% | |
| 23 | 12% | 17% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 29% | 94% | |
| 8 | 41% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 24% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): elDiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 1–11 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 628
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%