Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 12–16 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 35.4% 33.5–37.3% 32.9–37.9% 32.4–38.4% 31.6–39.3%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.5% 26.3–32.0% 25.5–32.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 24–27 24–27 23–27 23–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 21 20–22 19–22 19–23 18–23
Vox (PfE) 0 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 4% 99.6%  
24 18% 96%  
25 34% 78% Median
26 30% 44%  
27 12% 14%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 9% 98.9%  
20 29% 90%  
21 37% 61% Median
22 19% 24%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 14% 99.5%  
8 46% 86% Median
9 33% 39%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 24% 99.9%  
3 67% 76% Median
4 9% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 58% 98.7% Median
3 39% 41%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 70% 99.7% Median
2 29% 30%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 25 0% 24–27 24–27 23–27 23–28
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–23 18–23
Vox (PfE) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 4% 99.6%  
24 18% 96%  
25 34% 78% Median
26 30% 44%  
27 12% 14%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 9% 98.9%  
20 29% 90%  
21 37% 61% Median
22 19% 24%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 14% 99.5%  
8 46% 86% Median
9 33% 39%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations